Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby HJS on Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:42 am

2001Eagle wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/JackMacCFB/status/1418678701135384579

Clempsun and FSU to SEC also

Along with the significantly more shocking additions of Michigan and Ohio State.

Interestingly, the ACC was planning to make a run at Texas and OU and were blindsided by the SEC. Instead, they are looking into partnering with the P12 to counter the NFL-sized deal the SEC is looking to get.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... g-sec-move
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby Dick Rosenthal on Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:09 am

There was a pretty solid takedown of this report by a couple of lawyers on Twitter this morning. The way the ACC contract is structured their really is no way for Florida State and Clemson to jump ship before 2036 and those arguing that ESPN will somehow apply pressure on Phillips and the rest of the conference to abandon rights it has against FSU and Clemson are obviously unfamiliar with tortious interference with contract. Disney has some pretty deep pockets and such a claim could result in a verdict north of $150 million for each member school of the ACC against ESPN and its parent. And this isn’t speculation from a couple of Internet lawyers, it’s a takedown utilizing an internal ESPN memo from its general counsel warning against ESPN “participating in any way in discussions concerning conference alignment.”

With respect to Ohio State and Michigan, while media reports that the grant of rights runs through 2027, the cost of exiting is actually larger than the payment of an ACC-like putative exit fee. In addition to the exit fee during the agreement, at renewal of the grant of rights in 2027, any member school deciding to not renew the grant of rights must pay the other members of the BIG 10 a sum equal to 15 years of television fees from the previous contract. That is a staggering amount of money and is apparently why tOSU’s threats to exit the BIG 10 last fall when the BIG 10 decided not to play, were, according to sources within the tOSU Administration and Athletic Department, “completely empty.”

The SEC move to create a Super Conference that could presumably quadruple its current TV rights package is being done because of something previously discussed. To wit, the SEC lacks the funds to engage in a NIL arms race with certain northern and coastal schools that have much deeper pockets then their alumni bases. The Oklahoma maneuver makes sense as they are in the exact same boat as the SEC. The Texas move is curious and if you read news reports this morning, their are apparently a bunch of Texas alums who are so unhappy with this potential surrender of their vast resource advantages to Alabama, Auburn, etc. that the Texas State legislature has a bill in both the House and Senate ready to go when the fleabagging Democrat scum return to the state in the next couple of days, forbidding UT from changing conferences without the approval of the Texas legislature and Governor.

The way all of this is being presented as fait accompli by a bunch of football writer boobs is stupid, but unsurprising.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby hansen on Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:22 am

What is “how could Clemson go from relevant to irrelevant in one move?”
I honestly have no idea… HANSENPOST :shrug

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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby HJS on Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:22 am

This is driven by the massive legal upheaval that necessarily results in the NCAA getting out of the profitable sports business combined with the serendipity of GORs/TV deals of P12 and B10 expiring 23 and SEC and B12 in ‘25.

The way this should play out is the 80 teams I mentioned in the previous post breaking from the NCAA and setting up a minor league system for football that could involve things like relegation. The idea that the SEC would create a “super-conference” that includes the likes of Kentucky, Vandy, Miss St and Ark undercuts the meaning of “super”.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby eagle33 on Sat Jul 24, 2021 5:24 pm

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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby HJS on Sat Jul 24, 2021 5:40 pm


Some random message board posters aside, it should be noted that TAMU’s board is looking into whether or not they have legal recourse to block Texas’ invite. Rarely do these things go as planned (including the ultimate success of the move). Will be interesting to see how these gym teachers pretending to be corporate barons play this out. Ultimately, BC will be what it has been under Leahy… a wallflower watching college athletics devolve. It’s fortuitous for now to be the first year since Jags for BC FB to have some level of relevancy.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby 2001Eagle on Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:55 pm

I suspect this isn’t just a one time play by the SEC. NFL had 16 billion in revenue in 2019. NCAA division 1 football had 4 billion and change. The NIL ruling means any pretense of amateurism is dead. I think this is the first step towards creating the “AAA” of the NFL. The top 24 teams in college football can have their own league and capture 90% of the college football revenue. Heck - they can have their own playoff and crown a national champion.

Even with the steep GOR/penalty for leaving a conference, if say-Clemson—effectively becomes an NFL minor league franchise, then the value of that program is at least 400-500 million I’d guess.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby Dick Rosenthal on Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:45 pm

2001Eagle wrote:I suspect this isn’t just a one time play by the SEC. NFL had 16 billion in revenue in 2019. NCAA division 1 football had 4 billion and change. The NIL ruling means any pretense of amateurism is dead. I think this is the first step towards creating the “AAA” of the NFL. The top 24 teams in college football can have their own league and capture 90% of the college football revenue. Heck - they can have their own playoff and crown a national champion.

Even with the steep GOR/penalty for leaving a conference, if say-Clemson—effectively becomes an NFL minor league franchise, then the value of that program is at least 400-500 million I’d guess.


I think you overestimate the value of Clemson, Alabama, LSU. If this becomes a purely professional league, then the marquis franchises, in terms of wealth generation and conversely the ability to go load up payroll are Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Michigan and Ohio State. Amongst the SEC, Vanderbilt has money on hand that literally dwarfs the combined cash on hand of Bama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia, and Georgia will have the added problem of having its much wealthier rival Georgia Tech cutting them to pieces.

Basically, A&M, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, USC and Ohio State are the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers and the SEC outside of A&M and Vandy, are the Royals/Brewers. And once having zero academic standards and tradition and prestige get crushed by cold hard cash, then whatever power those schools have in the new universe is gone as well.

Hell, with better leadership, in a straight cash play, we’d be in better shape than any of the aforementioned Baby Rapist schools. We couldn’t punch with the aforementioned wealthy powerhouses, but we could be high midmarket—the Phillies/Nationals/Braves level.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby 2001Eagle on Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:04 am

Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:I suspect this isn’t just a one time play by the SEC. NFL had 16 billion in revenue in 2019. NCAA division 1 football had 4 billion and change. The NIL ruling means any pretense of amateurism is dead. I think this is the first step towards creating the “AAA” of the NFL. The top 24 teams in college football can have their own league and capture 90% of the college football revenue. Heck - they can have their own playoff and crown a national champion.

Even with the steep GOR/penalty for leaving a conference, if say-Clemson—effectively becomes an NFL minor league franchise, then the value of that program is at least 400-500 million I’d guess.


I think you overestimate the value of Clemson, Alabama, LSU. If this becomes a purely professional league, then the marquis franchises, in terms of wealth generation and conversely the ability to go load up payroll are Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Michigan and Ohio State. Amongst the SEC, Vanderbilt has money on hand that literally dwarfs the combined cash on hand of Bama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia, and Georgia will have the added problem of having its much wealthier rival Georgia Tech cutting them to pieces.

Basically, A&M, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, USC and Ohio State are the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers and the SEC outside of A&M and Vandy, are the Royals/Brewers. And once having zero academic standards and tradition and prestige get crushed by cold hard cash, then whatever power those schools have in the new universe is gone as well.

Hell, with better leadership, in a straight cash play, we’d be in better shape than any of the aforementioned Baby Rapist schools. We couldn’t punch with the aforementioned wealthy powerhouses, but we could be high midmarket—the Phillies/Nationals/Braves level.



As is your wont, I think you’re getting it wrong. Cash on hand really doesn’t matter. If you get into the super conference, your value rises.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby eagle33 on Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:56 am

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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby Dick Rosenthal on Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:16 pm

2001Eagle wrote:
Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:I suspect this isn’t just a one time play by the SEC. NFL had 16 billion in revenue in 2019. NCAA division 1 football had 4 billion and change. The NIL ruling means any pretense of amateurism is dead. I think this is the first step towards creating the “AAA” of the NFL. The top 24 teams in college football can have their own league and capture 90% of the college football revenue. Heck - they can have their own playoff and crown a national champion.

Even with the steep GOR/penalty for leaving a conference, if say-Clemson—effectively becomes an NFL minor league franchise, then the value of that program is at least 400-500 million I’d guess.


I think you overestimate the value of Clemson, Alabama, LSU. If this becomes a purely professional league, then the marquis franchises, in terms of wealth generation and conversely the ability to go load up payroll are Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Michigan and Ohio State. Amongst the SEC, Vanderbilt has money on hand that literally dwarfs the combined cash on hand of Bama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia, and Georgia will have the added problem of having its much wealthier rival Georgia Tech cutting them to pieces.

Basically, A&M, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, USC and Ohio State are the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers and the SEC outside of A&M and Vandy, are the Royals/Brewers. And once having zero academic standards and tradition and prestige get crushed by cold hard cash, then whatever power those schools have in the new universe is gone as well.

Hell, with better leadership, in a straight cash play, we’d be in better shape than any of the aforementioned Baby Rapist schools. We couldn’t punch with the aforementioned wealthy powerhouses, but we could be high midmarket—the Phillies/Nationals/Braves level.



As is your wont, I think you’re getting it wrong. Cash on hand really doesn’t matter. If you get into the super conference, your value rises.


Not at all. If there is one thing I do understand its valuation of assets. Respectfully, because I think it is an interesting conversation and I don't want to shit all over you with respect to something you don't do professionally, you make the classic mistake (one that a lot of far more experienced people who do this for a living do as well) of ascribing goodwill value to a product in a rapidly and radically changing market. In those instances, it is always smart to look at cash on hand, as it is the only constant value.

Let's take Alabama by way of example. Let's also keep Saban part of the equation in terms of valuation even if he is turning 70 this year. What are Alabama's advantages as a program? They have a historically successful coach/CEO, tradition/name recognition, a complete absence of academic standards or commitment to the student athlete outside of the one year scholarship term (grey shirting, running kids off), a willingness to pay players under the table, proximity to talent, a lack of competition within their market space from local professional sports teams for casual fan attention, an excellent physical plant in terms of facilities, and a commitment to football excellence at the expense of other considerations in the current market place.

What are their weaknesses as a program? A relatively poor alumni and fan base. Dependency on a strong conference to drive revenue in the complete absence of a valuable, local media market. Tapped out in terms of available resources vis a vis key competitors as market conditions change.

Okay. Now let's look at the advantages in where the market is heading. Once college football becomes the professional league it is devolving into, the complete lack of academic standards, the payment of players under the table, the commitment to football excellence at the expense of reputation, etc. all go away. I suspect that political considerations/pressure will prevent the creation of a 24 team super league, which frankly would be the only Alabama could generate the cash flow to compete with the wealthier schools mentioned earlier. proximity to talent doesn't matter as much when players are all getting paid. The kid who wants to stay in the south to be close to mama is less likely to care about that if tOSU, USC, etc. can pay him two or three times what he will make at Bama. All you are really left with is a geriatric exceptional coach, a currently excellent physical plant, and tradition--although that tradition was built in an entirely different market.

What disadvantages remain. Poor alumni base and casual fan base. Small media market. Complete dependency on conference to drive revenue. A lack of available capital to invest in the program--even if the SEC TV revenue increases in the short term, while this thing devolves into the professional league of 4 super conferences (the only outcome that will avoid political road blocks) with paid players, the value of the SEC brand diminishes when USC or tOSU or Notre Dame or Texas drive up the cost of players and are able to take talent that would normally be locked into the SEC elsewhere. As talent disperses across the super conferences, the other conferences are all putting out a similar product and enjoying the same revenue streams as the SEC, with the aforementioned wealthier schools also tossing in money that the SEC can't match.

Anyway, it might take a few years to shake out, although I suspect it will be faster than anyone thinks, but at this point the long term valuation for the SEC baby rapists or Clemson doesn't look very good vis a vis the competition. In truth, they look like Hewlett-Packard in the late 70s just before the technology market shifted under their feet or a GM or Ford in the late 60s. Great right now, but not looking good in the long term.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby 2001Eagle on Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:48 pm

Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:
Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:I suspect this isn’t just a one time play by the SEC. NFL had 16 billion in revenue in 2019. NCAA division 1 football had 4 billion and change. The NIL ruling means any pretense of amateurism is dead. I think this is the first step towards creating the “AAA” of the NFL. The top 24 teams in college football can have their own league and capture 90% of the college football revenue. Heck - they can have their own playoff and crown a national champion.

Even with the steep GOR/penalty for leaving a conference, if say-Clemson—effectively becomes an NFL minor league franchise, then the value of that program is at least 400-500 million I’d guess.


I think you overestimate the value of Clemson, Alabama, LSU. If this becomes a purely professional league, then the marquis franchises, in terms of wealth generation and conversely the ability to go load up payroll are Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Michigan and Ohio State. Amongst the SEC, Vanderbilt has money on hand that literally dwarfs the combined cash on hand of Bama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia, and Georgia will have the added problem of having its much wealthier rival Georgia Tech cutting them to pieces.

Basically, A&M, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, USC and Ohio State are the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers and the SEC outside of A&M and Vandy, are the Royals/Brewers. And once having zero academic standards and tradition and prestige get crushed by cold hard cash, then whatever power those schools have in the new universe is gone as well.

Hell, with better leadership, in a straight cash play, we’d be in better shape than any of the aforementioned Baby Rapist schools. We couldn’t punch with the aforementioned wealthy powerhouses, but we could be high midmarket—the Phillies/Nationals/Braves level.



As is your wont, I think you’re getting it wrong. Cash on hand really doesn’t matter. If you get into the super conference, your value rises.


Not at all. If there is one thing I do understand its valuation of assets. Respectfully, because I think it is an interesting conversation and I don't want to shit all over you with respect to something you don't do professionally, you make the classic mistake (one that a lot of far more experienced people who do this for a living do as well) of ascribing goodwill value to a product in a rapidly and radically changing market. In those instances, it is always smart to look at cash on hand, as it is the only constant value.

Let's take Alabama by way of example. Let's also keep Saban part of the equation in terms of valuation even if he is turning 70 this year. What are Alabama's advantages as a program? They have a historically successful coach/CEO, tradition/name recognition, a complete absence of academic standards or commitment to the student athlete outside of the one year scholarship term (grey shirting, running kids off), a willingness to pay players under the table, proximity to talent, a lack of competition within their market space from local professional sports teams for casual fan attention, an excellent physical plant in terms of facilities, and a commitment to football excellence at the expense of other considerations in the current market place.

What are their weaknesses as a program? A relatively poor alumni and fan base. Dependency on a strong conference to drive revenue in the complete absence of a valuable, local media market. Tapped out in terms of available resources vis a vis key competitors as market conditions change.

Okay. Now let's look at the advantages in where the market is heading. Once college football becomes the professional league it is devolving into, the complete lack of academic standards, the payment of players under the table, the commitment to football excellence at the expense of reputation, etc. all go away. I suspect that political considerations/pressure will prevent the creation of a 24 team super league, which frankly would be the only Alabama could generate the cash flow to compete with the wealthier schools mentioned earlier. proximity to talent doesn't matter as much when players are all getting paid. The kid who wants to stay in the south to be close to mama is less likely to care about that if tOSU, USC, etc. can pay him two or three times what he will make at Bama. All you are really left with is a geriatric exceptional coach, a currently excellent physical plant, and tradition--although that tradition was built in an entirely different market.

What disadvantages remain. Poor alumni base and casual fan base. Small media market. Complete dependency on conference to drive revenue. A lack of available capital to invest in the program--even if the SEC TV revenue increases in the short term, while this thing devolves into the professional league of 4 super conferences (the only outcome that will avoid political road blocks) with paid players, the value of the SEC brand diminishes when USC or tOSU or Notre Dame or Texas drive up the cost of players and are able to take talent that would normally be locked into the SEC elsewhere. As talent disperses across the super conferences, the other conferences are all putting out a similar product and enjoying the same revenue streams as the SEC, with the aforementioned wealthier schools also tossing in money that the SEC can't match.

Anyway, it might take a few years to shake out, although I suspect it will be faster than anyone thinks, but at this point the long term valuation for the SEC baby rapists or Clemson doesn't look very good vis a vis the competition. In truth, they look like Hewlett-Packard in the late 70s just before the technology market shifted under their feet or a GM or Ford in the late 60s. Great right now, but not looking good in the long term.



I find this fascinating as well. But I simply disagree with you.

Do you feel as strongly about this as you did on the strength of Parlour’s antitrust suit?
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby 2001Eagle on Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:51 pm

[quote="eagle33"]sec expanding to 24

https://twitter.com/DawgOutWest/status/1419060008663150592[/quote


Once they have 24, they can announce that they are done with the NCAA and forming their own playoff and crowning their own champion.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby Eaglekeeper on Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:34 pm

The way around the GOR is to take enough teams to dissolve the conference.
I think there is a strong possibility that the SEC and the B1G will raid the ACC. I don’t see Michigan and Ohio St leaving the B1G, but rather leading the fight against the SEC. Too much history being the top dogs in the B1G. Like any conference the SEC has a lot of dead wood. Nobody cares about Mississippi, Mississippi St, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Missouri. That’s almost half the existing conference members!

Additions to get to 32 teams

B1G - BC, ND, SU, UVA, UNC, Pitt, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St, Kansas, Colorado, Utah & BYU

SEC - Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas St., Arizona, Arizona St, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, Louisville, West Virginia, USF, Duke

4, eight team divisions in each conference. Top 2 in each division make the playoffs. 12 game all conference schedule, 7 division games, 5 cross over games.

College Super Bowl: B1G champion v SEC champion.

You can definitely argue that each conference will have only 24 teams, but with the existing deadwood in both conferences it’s going to be tough to include enough TV markets and a national following. Shutting our regions of the country will shrink fan interest, especially among young fans. I think BC is in a good place given the Boston TV market. They are basically New England’s team. Syracuse is in a somewhat similar situation being located in NY.

Notre Dame better get off the sideline if they want the ACC to survive. They waited too long the last time and watched the Big East collapse. If they want to control who their conference members are and be a big fish in a smaller pond, they need to join the ACC immediately.

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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby ATLeagle on Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:06 pm

The Super Conference is inevitable but not in the next few years. Too many media assets already tied up and Title 9 remains a problem until the football teams break away and become clubs associated with certain colleges. While I agree with Dick about that value limits off Bama vs say USC, if they become minor leagues, being outside a major city becomes an asset at the gate. Bama will sell 90k seats seven times a year. I don't think a team in an NFL market will.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby twballgame9 on Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:35 pm

People that talk ticket revenue are stupid.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby HJS on Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:16 am

Building on teddy's and Dick's comments... The SEC super-conference idea is exactly what some gym teachers would come up with drinking Schlitz while lawnchairing around an above ground pool. It is the type of thing that can only live in a vacuum that doesn't pretend to consider market forces.

Professional sports leagues do not operate solely in a specific geographic regions. There is a reason teams are in St. Louis, Seattle, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Tampa, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Houston.

No one will care about a "super-conference" that has been purposely created such that local interest is impossible for 80% of the country. People in B10 Country care about the Auburn-Bama game because how it impacts their rooting interest and positioning of OSU. It is the measuring-stick nature of the sport that allows the tribal interest. If the SEC added Clemson, FSU, OSU, Mich, Texas and OU and they only played each other... you would quickly be in a situation where the rest of the country North of the Mason-Dixon and West of the Miss would largely treat the league the same way they treat Triple A baseball and the G League.

College sports has been successful because they are sampling from a customer pool composed of 100 schools with tens of millions of alums. Removing 75% of potential customers isn't a winning formula in tripling revenues. Stupid is as stupid does. So, this proposed calamity absolutely could happen. But, the ultimate outcome won't be what they hoped.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby Dick Rosenthal on Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:23 am

2001Eagle wrote:
Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:
Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:I suspect this isn’t just a one time play by the SEC. NFL had 16 billion in revenue in 2019. NCAA division 1 football had 4 billion and change. The NIL ruling means any pretense of amateurism is dead. I think this is the first step towards creating the “AAA” of the NFL. The top 24 teams in college football can have their own league and capture 90% of the college football revenue. Heck - they can have their own playoff and crown a national champion.

Even with the steep GOR/penalty for leaving a conference, if say-Clemson—effectively becomes an NFL minor league franchise, then the value of that program is at least 400-500 million I’d guess.


I think you overestimate the value of Clemson, Alabama, LSU. If this becomes a purely professional league, then the marquis franchises, in terms of wealth generation and conversely the ability to go load up payroll are Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Michigan and Ohio State. Amongst the SEC, Vanderbilt has money on hand that literally dwarfs the combined cash on hand of Bama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia, and Georgia will have the added problem of having its much wealthier rival Georgia Tech cutting them to pieces.

Basically, A&M, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, USC and Ohio State are the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers and the SEC outside of A&M and Vandy, are the Royals/Brewers. And once having zero academic standards and tradition and prestige get crushed by cold hard cash, then whatever power those schools have in the new universe is gone as well.

Hell, with better leadership, in a straight cash play, we’d be in better shape than any of the aforementioned Baby Rapist schools. We couldn’t punch with the aforementioned wealthy powerhouses, but we could be high midmarket—the Phillies/Nationals/Braves level.



As is your wont, I think you’re getting it wrong. Cash on hand really doesn’t matter. If you get into the super conference, your value rises.


Not at all. If there is one thing I do understand its valuation of assets. Respectfully, because I think it is an interesting conversation and I don't want to shit all over you with respect to something you don't do professionally, you make the classic mistake (one that a lot of far more experienced people who do this for a living do as well) of ascribing goodwill value to a product in a rapidly and radically changing market. In those instances, it is always smart to look at cash on hand, as it is the only constant value.

Let's take Alabama by way of example. Let's also keep Saban part of the equation in terms of valuation even if he is turning 70 this year. What are Alabama's advantages as a program? They have a historically successful coach/CEO, tradition/name recognition, a complete absence of academic standards or commitment to the student athlete outside of the one year scholarship term (grey shirting, running kids off), a willingness to pay players under the table, proximity to talent, a lack of competition within their market space from local professional sports teams for casual fan attention, an excellent physical plant in terms of facilities, and a commitment to football excellence at the expense of other considerations in the current market place.

What are their weaknesses as a program? A relatively poor alumni and fan base. Dependency on a strong conference to drive revenue in the complete absence of a valuable, local media market. Tapped out in terms of available resources vis a vis key competitors as market conditions change.

Okay. Now let's look at the advantages in where the market is heading. Once college football becomes the professional league it is devolving into, the complete lack of academic standards, the payment of players under the table, the commitment to football excellence at the expense of reputation, etc. all go away. I suspect that political considerations/pressure will prevent the creation of a 24 team super league, which frankly would be the only Alabama could generate the cash flow to compete with the wealthier schools mentioned earlier. proximity to talent doesn't matter as much when players are all getting paid. The kid who wants to stay in the south to be close to mama is less likely to care about that if tOSU, USC, etc. can pay him two or three times what he will make at Bama. All you are really left with is a geriatric exceptional coach, a currently excellent physical plant, and tradition--although that tradition was built in an entirely different market.

What disadvantages remain. Poor alumni base and casual fan base. Small media market. Complete dependency on conference to drive revenue. A lack of available capital to invest in the program--even if the SEC TV revenue increases in the short term, while this thing devolves into the professional league of 4 super conferences (the only outcome that will avoid political road blocks) with paid players, the value of the SEC brand diminishes when USC or tOSU or Notre Dame or Texas drive up the cost of players and are able to take talent that would normally be locked into the SEC elsewhere. As talent disperses across the super conferences, the other conferences are all putting out a similar product and enjoying the same revenue streams as the SEC, with the aforementioned wealthier schools also tossing in money that the SEC can't match.

Anyway, it might take a few years to shake out, although I suspect it will be faster than anyone thinks, but at this point the long term valuation for the SEC baby rapists or Clemson doesn't look very good vis a vis the competition. In truth, they look like Hewlett-Packard in the late 70s just before the technology market shifted under their feet or a GM or Ford in the late 60s. Great right now, but not looking good in the long term.



I find this fascinating as well. But I simply disagree with you.

Do you feel as strongly about this as you did on the strength of Parlour’s antitrust suit?


Stronger actually, because this is dictated by actual market forces instead of the whims of a corrupt Obama appointee. Anyway, you're a fucking moron, but thanks for the input.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby CowboyEagle22 on Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:27 am

This looks a lot like what happened with boxing. No controlling authority to look out for the best interest of the sport, means the greedy get to run wild and consume the social capital of the sport. The SEC is the crooked fight promotors of college athletics.

You really have to wonder if this is just the bubble bursting. Cord cutting is a real issue now. Attendance and ratings have been in decline. The Baby Boomers are getting to the point were they are unwilling to spend on sports entertainment. Golf is in steep decline for this reason. I read somewhere that the Big Ten Network will no longer be on basic cable in Big Ten states. It just seems to point to a contraction in college sports, maybe sports entertainment as a whole.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby HJS on Mon Jul 26, 2021 10:13 am

CowboyEagle22 wrote:This looks a lot like what happened with boxing. No controlling authority to look out for the best interest of the sport, means the greedy get to run wild and consume the social capital of the sport. The SEC is the crooked fight promotors of college athletics.

You really have to wonder if this is just the bubble bursting. Cord cutting is a real issue now. Attendance and ratings have been in decline. The Baby Boomers are getting to the point were they are unwilling to spend on sports entertainment. Golf is in steep decline for this reason. I read somewhere that the Big Ten Network will no longer be on basic cable in Big Ten states. It just seems to point to a contraction in college sports, maybe sports entertainment as a whole.

I think this is all a real thing. There is a tremendous amount of pressure on entertainment dollars (spent an entire year without sports, concerts, movies and everyone survived). The entire funding model of college sports is changing by the minute (cable households will no longer be the source of money). I understand why the SEC would want two marquis teams to solidify themselves and serve as a hedge for all future moves (i.e. regardless what happens, the SEC will always be the leader in college sports... financially and politically). Expansion beyond that makes no sense. College football should be finding ways to preserve that they have in an evaporating pool.

I continue to believe their best served in creating a minor league system composed of 5 16-team conferences. That keeps them top-of-mine for most of the country as 80 schools has the illusion of access and the dream of shocking the world.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby 2001Eagle on Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:34 pm

Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:
Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:
Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:I suspect this isn’t just a one time play by the SEC. NFL had 16 billion in revenue in 2019. NCAA division 1 football had 4 billion and change. The NIL ruling means any pretense of amateurism is dead. I think this is the first step towards creating the “AAA” of the NFL. The top 24 teams in college football can have their own league and capture 90% of the college football revenue. Heck - they can have their own playoff and crown a national champion.

Even with the steep GOR/penalty for leaving a conference, if say-Clemson—effectively becomes an NFL minor league franchise, then the value of that program is at least 400-500 million I’d guess.


I think you overestimate the value of Clemson, Alabama, LSU. If this becomes a purely professional league, then the marquis franchises, in terms of wealth generation and conversely the ability to go load up payroll are Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Michigan and Ohio State. Amongst the SEC, Vanderbilt has money on hand that literally dwarfs the combined cash on hand of Bama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia, and Georgia will have the added problem of having its much wealthier rival Georgia Tech cutting them to pieces.

Basically, A&M, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, USC and Ohio State are the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers and the SEC outside of A&M and Vandy, are the Royals/Brewers. And once having zero academic standards and tradition and prestige get crushed by cold hard cash, then whatever power those schools have in the new universe is gone as well.

Hell, with better leadership, in a straight cash play, we’d be in better shape than any of the aforementioned Baby Rapist schools. We couldn’t punch with the aforementioned wealthy powerhouses, but we could be high midmarket—the Phillies/Nationals/Braves level.



As is your wont, I think you’re getting it wrong. Cash on hand really doesn’t matter. If you get into the super conference, your value rises.


Not at all. If there is one thing I do understand its valuation of assets. Respectfully, because I think it is an interesting conversation and I don't want to shit all over you with respect to something you don't do professionally, you make the classic mistake (one that a lot of far more experienced people who do this for a living do as well) of ascribing goodwill value to a product in a rapidly and radically changing market. In those instances, it is always smart to look at cash on hand, as it is the only constant value.

Let's take Alabama by way of example. Let's also keep Saban part of the equation in terms of valuation even if he is turning 70 this year. What are Alabama's advantages as a program? They have a historically successful coach/CEO, tradition/name recognition, a complete absence of academic standards or commitment to the student athlete outside of the one year scholarship term (grey shirting, running kids off), a willingness to pay players under the table, proximity to talent, a lack of competition within their market space from local professional sports teams for casual fan attention, an excellent physical plant in terms of facilities, and a commitment to football excellence at the expense of other considerations in the current market place.

What are their weaknesses as a program? A relatively poor alumni and fan base. Dependency on a strong conference to drive revenue in the complete absence of a valuable, local media market. Tapped out in terms of available resources vis a vis key competitors as market conditions change.

Okay. Now let's look at the advantages in where the market is heading. Once college football becomes the professional league it is devolving into, the complete lack of academic standards, the payment of players under the table, the commitment to football excellence at the expense of reputation, etc. all go away. I suspect that political considerations/pressure will prevent the creation of a 24 team super league, which frankly would be the only Alabama could generate the cash flow to compete with the wealthier schools mentioned earlier. proximity to talent doesn't matter as much when players are all getting paid. The kid who wants to stay in the south to be close to mama is less likely to care about that if tOSU, USC, etc. can pay him two or three times what he will make at Bama. All you are really left with is a geriatric exceptional coach, a currently excellent physical plant, and tradition--although that tradition was built in an entirely different market.

What disadvantages remain. Poor alumni base and casual fan base. Small media market. Complete dependency on conference to drive revenue. A lack of available capital to invest in the program--even if the SEC TV revenue increases in the short term, while this thing devolves into the professional league of 4 super conferences (the only outcome that will avoid political road blocks) with paid players, the value of the SEC brand diminishes when USC or tOSU or Notre Dame or Texas drive up the cost of players and are able to take talent that would normally be locked into the SEC elsewhere. As talent disperses across the super conferences, the other conferences are all putting out a similar product and enjoying the same revenue streams as the SEC, with the aforementioned wealthier schools also tossing in money that the SEC can't match.

Anyway, it might take a few years to shake out, although I suspect it will be faster than anyone thinks, but at this point the long term valuation for the SEC baby rapists or Clemson doesn't look very good vis a vis the competition. In truth, they look like Hewlett-Packard in the late 70s just before the technology market shifted under their feet or a GM or Ford in the late 60s. Great right now, but not looking good in the long term.



I find this fascinating as well. But I simply disagree with you.

Do you feel as strongly about this as you did on the strength of Parlour’s antitrust suit?


Stronger actually, because this is dictated by actual market forces instead of the whims of a corrupt Obama appointee. Anyway, you're a fucking moron, but thanks for the input.



Right back at you, pal. Looking forward to the first time you’re right about something on this website. Rooting for you.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby HJS on Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:55 am

After notifying the B12 that they will not renew their GOR, Texas and Oklahoma has asked the SEC for admission beginning July 1, 2025.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby claver2010 on Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:28 am

if this didn't bring back :81 i'm worried he might've succumbed to civilaids
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby CowboyEagle22 on Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:41 am

HJS wrote:After notifying the B12 that they will not renew their GOR, Texas and Oklahoma has asked the SEC for admission beginning July 1, 2025.


In the past, teams bolting for other conferences wanted to get it over with as quickly as possible. Presumably, they expect other schools to find a new home and thus negate any buyout. Or they expect the remnant to make an offer so they can reorganize themselves with new members. Either way, Texas and Oklahoma can wait it out.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby Dick Rosenthal on Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:42 pm

2001Eagle wrote:
Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:
Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:
Dick Rosenthal wrote:
2001Eagle wrote:I suspect this isn’t just a one time play by the SEC. NFL had 16 billion in revenue in 2019. NCAA division 1 football had 4 billion and change. The NIL ruling means any pretense of amateurism is dead. I think this is the first step towards creating the “AAA” of the NFL. The top 24 teams in college football can have their own league and capture 90% of the college football revenue. Heck - they can have their own playoff and crown a national champion.

Even with the steep GOR/penalty for leaving a conference, if say-Clemson—effectively becomes an NFL minor league franchise, then the value of that program is at least 400-500 million I’d guess.


I think you overestimate the value of Clemson, Alabama, LSU. If this becomes a purely professional league, then the marquis franchises, in terms of wealth generation and conversely the ability to go load up payroll are Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Michigan and Ohio State. Amongst the SEC, Vanderbilt has money on hand that literally dwarfs the combined cash on hand of Bama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia, and Georgia will have the added problem of having its much wealthier rival Georgia Tech cutting them to pieces.

Basically, A&M, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, USC and Ohio State are the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers and the SEC outside of A&M and Vandy, are the Royals/Brewers. And once having zero academic standards and tradition and prestige get crushed by cold hard cash, then whatever power those schools have in the new universe is gone as well.

Hell, with better leadership, in a straight cash play, we’d be in better shape than any of the aforementioned Baby Rapist schools. We couldn’t punch with the aforementioned wealthy powerhouses, but we could be high midmarket—the Phillies/Nationals/Braves level.



As is your wont, I think you’re getting it wrong. Cash on hand really doesn’t matter. If you get into the super conference, your value rises.


Not at all. If there is one thing I do understand its valuation of assets. Respectfully, because I think it is an interesting conversation and I don't want to shit all over you with respect to something you don't do professionally, you make the classic mistake (one that a lot of far more experienced people who do this for a living do as well) of ascribing goodwill value to a product in a rapidly and radically changing market. In those instances, it is always smart to look at cash on hand, as it is the only constant value.

Let's take Alabama by way of example. Let's also keep Saban part of the equation in terms of valuation even if he is turning 70 this year. What are Alabama's advantages as a program? They have a historically successful coach/CEO, tradition/name recognition, a complete absence of academic standards or commitment to the student athlete outside of the one year scholarship term (grey shirting, running kids off), a willingness to pay players under the table, proximity to talent, a lack of competition within their market space from local professional sports teams for casual fan attention, an excellent physical plant in terms of facilities, and a commitment to football excellence at the expense of other considerations in the current market place.

What are their weaknesses as a program? A relatively poor alumni and fan base. Dependency on a strong conference to drive revenue in the complete absence of a valuable, local media market. Tapped out in terms of available resources vis a vis key competitors as market conditions change.

Okay. Now let's look at the advantages in where the market is heading. Once college football becomes the professional league it is devolving into, the complete lack of academic standards, the payment of players under the table, the commitment to football excellence at the expense of reputation, etc. all go away. I suspect that political considerations/pressure will prevent the creation of a 24 team super league, which frankly would be the only Alabama could generate the cash flow to compete with the wealthier schools mentioned earlier. proximity to talent doesn't matter as much when players are all getting paid. The kid who wants to stay in the south to be close to mama is less likely to care about that if tOSU, USC, etc. can pay him two or three times what he will make at Bama. All you are really left with is a geriatric exceptional coach, a currently excellent physical plant, and tradition--although that tradition was built in an entirely different market.

What disadvantages remain. Poor alumni base and casual fan base. Small media market. Complete dependency on conference to drive revenue. A lack of available capital to invest in the program--even if the SEC TV revenue increases in the short term, while this thing devolves into the professional league of 4 super conferences (the only outcome that will avoid political road blocks) with paid players, the value of the SEC brand diminishes when USC or tOSU or Notre Dame or Texas drive up the cost of players and are able to take talent that would normally be locked into the SEC elsewhere. As talent disperses across the super conferences, the other conferences are all putting out a similar product and enjoying the same revenue streams as the SEC, with the aforementioned wealthier schools also tossing in money that the SEC can't match.

Anyway, it might take a few years to shake out, although I suspect it will be faster than anyone thinks, but at this point the long term valuation for the SEC baby rapists or Clemson doesn't look very good vis a vis the competition. In truth, they look like Hewlett-Packard in the late 70s just before the technology market shifted under their feet or a GM or Ford in the late 60s. Great right now, but not looking good in the long term.



I find this fascinating as well. But I simply disagree with you.

Do you feel as strongly about this as you did on the strength of Parlour’s antitrust suit?


Stronger actually, because this is dictated by actual market forces instead of the whims of a corrupt Obama appointee. Anyway, you're a fucking moron, but thanks for the input.



Right back at you, pal. Looking forward to the first time you’re right about something on this website. Rooting for you.


Well, I was undeniably correct about the market last year and undeniably right about you being a White Messiah for your "many" black friends down at the country club. So that would be two more times than you. Thanks for being the Washington Generals of this site.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby 2013CommAve on Tue Jul 27, 2021 8:29 pm

Awesome, ignoring the weird race politics happening in this thread,,,

I think BC might be in trouble and I'd like someone to convince me otherwise. We are in a pretty comfy place in the ACC but the big money makers could be on their way out. How is BC protected from Clemson or FSU from jumping to the SEC? Where could we line up in joining the B1G?
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby twballgame9 on Tue Jul 27, 2021 8:30 pm

2038 might suck for BC sports. At least we have the Bama game.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby Corporal Funishment on Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:16 pm

The real question is who will be in our division in the SEC after they invite us because Lukabu led us to 2 national championships after Hafley left us because he had already won 2 championships also?
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby eagle33 on Wed Jul 28, 2021 7:30 am

Corporal Funishment wrote:The real question is who will be in our division in the SEC after they invite us because Lukabu led us to 2 national championships after Hafley left us because he had already won 2 championships also?


good question. i think we actually end up in the big 10 east division after the power brokers in the sec and big 10 decide how to divvy up the acc teams worth inviting for membership.
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Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Wed Jul 28, 2021 7:57 am

eagle33 wrote:
Corporal Funishment wrote:The real question is who will be in our division in the SEC after they invite us because Lukabu led us to 2 national championships after Hafley left us because he had already won 2 championships also?


good question. i think we actually end up in the big 10 east division after the power brokers in the sec and big 10 decide how to divvy up the acc teams worth inviting for membership.


that's where your argument falls apart. neither conference needs another vandy / northwestern
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