There are 4 recruiting services that "rate" the 17 year old shirtless boys; Scout, Rivals, ESPN, and 247 Sports. So how do they do the math and assign "stars?" It appears the single largest data point is game film:
https://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/02/how_are_recruiting_rankings_de.htmlEach service uses its own set of criteria, and thus, no set of rankings is ever exactly the same. Recruiting rankings are inherently an inexact science so each talent evaluator is going to have differing opinions about certain players and their long-term potential.
The biggest factor, according to the experts, is a prospect's game film. This is where the experts can get the best feel for a player's actual ability in the flow of a game. For the majority of the recruiting experts, this is preferred to combines and camps. However, one potential downside is with the rise of Hudl and xOS, recruiting analysts now have to wade through more game film and highlight tape than ever before.
"It's always the film; the film doesn't lie," says Brandon Huffman, the director of scouting at Scout.com. "I want to see what a kid is doing Friday nights between the lines."
At Scout.com, the film is far and away the biggest priority. Huffman then uses events like The Opening and the Under Armour All-America Game as a secondary resource when considering where a player needs to be ranked. He stressed that you can't let a good or bad week at an all-star camp overshadow what a player did for two or three years in high school.
247Sports has a similar mentality. JC Shurburtt, a national recruiting analyst for the network, estimates that game film equates to 60 percent of a prospect's total grade.
I mean that makes the most sense. Look at the film and see what he does on the field. How good are his opponents? What did he do vs those opponents? Take the math from the game film and model that data. And use that for a significant percentage of your ranking.
Okay so why is it that BC's recruits get penalized (sometimes lose a star) after they declare for BC? Well....
Do scholarship offers matter?
A common refrain heard on message boards and social media is that if a player has an offer from "insert your school here" how can he be only a three-star prospect? If a big school like Alabama or Auburn offers a prospect isn't there a good chance he's a four-star or five-star prospect?
The issue is that all scholarship offers aren't created equal. Each school has different needs and different systems, and thus targets different types of prospects. Farrell compares it to the NFL Draft where "guys will rate a certain position higher because it's a positional need for that team." Despite a team willing to take a player in the Top 10 of the draft, it doesn't necessarily mean he's a Top 10-level talent.
The same theory applies to college football.
Out of the four recruiting experts, Shurburtt is the only one who says offers factor in at all and he gives it only 10 percent of the total equation. One thing 247Sports does is look at the track record of college programs putting players into the NFL, especially lower-rated prospects.
Okay so there are 4 recruiting services and only one publically admits that their rating model is effected by scholarship offers from schools. Essentially, 247 Sports is admitting that they are as much as 10% lazy in rating their players by adjusting their rankings based on the overall value of the school offering the scholarship. So in that sense, a 17 year old shirtless boy is going to get 10% more mathematical love from 247 Sports if he gets an offer from Nick Saban and he will lose 10% of that love if Addazio is the only one who offers. I guess if the player gets offers from both, they will cancel out?
I don't see a whole lot of mathematical value for the ratings being placed on where the athlete ultimately decides to enroll (the asinine argument that HJS just made.) I just see 10% based on scholarship offers, not acceptance. And it was only the one recruiting service.
I suppose they could be lying.
Feminism: Eve eats ALL the apples, gives God the middle finder when He confronts her, and has the serpent serve Adam with an injunction ordering him to stay away from her AND to provide her food and shelter because he dragged her out of the Garden.