Celtics fans playoff thread

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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:35 pm

flyingelvii wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:And LOL at Philly.

I love how everyone is annointing them as the next great thing with a big that has played like 30 games in three years, a forward with foot issues who we don't know if he can shoot, and a rookie PG, a position that tends to take a year or two to pick up the position. And a top 3 pick who is consistently a DNP-CD. But, yeah, they're gonna be great.

I'm not annointing them anything. But, you guys are talking about how you get stars via the draft.

I think Embiid, Simmons, Okafor and Fulz is a better nucleus than Jaylen Brown, #3 and whoever they take in 2018. No one outside of 128 would say otherwise. I'd also argue that all four of the Sixers picks were more highly thought of than the Cs counterpart. The fact that you may now be unimpressed just further proves the crapshoot nature of the draft (and my aforementioned risk of valuing the picks too highly). Nonetheless, if you are saying that the Cs need to plan for 2020 buy building a young core through the draft... realize that the Sixers have already done that (and you are laughing at claims of their relevance).

Ultimately, I think everyone is taking an NFL mentality to the NBA. The modern NBA isn't about building rosters.The modern NBA is about having superstars. The Sixers and Celtics can fill each position with players who were Top 3 selections. It means nothing unless one of them is a superstar. Similarly, superstar free agents are only looking to join other superstars... not well-rounded rosters. Drafting a superstar has proven incredibly difficult throughout the years. Accordingly, if you can trade for one entering his prime, no price is too high.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:19 am

I'm saying that nobody knows shit about the Sixers because their entire core either sucks (Okafor) or can't stay on the court. So they could be the next Warriors or the Clippers of the early-2000s and will probably fall somewhere in between. But people seem to be conveniently forgetting all their warts.

Also, nowhere did I mention the Celtics but good job starting to build up the strawman that you will no doubt try to bring up later.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:27 am

I'm fine saying the Sixers have more hyped players and if all of them live up to the hype, they will have the potential to have a solid young core in a year or two. Of course, Timberwolves.

My only objection is the assumption that Porzingas has already proven he's a superstar worth trading Brown, the #3 and next years probably top 3 pick - three potential superstars -- for. I'll take three chances at a star over one.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:29 am

HJS wrote:Ultimately, I think everyone is taking an NFL mentality to the NBA. The modern NBA isn't about building rosters.


Maybe the NFL should start building rosters like the one team that does so. Just saying.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:31 am

twballgame9 wrote:
HJS wrote:Ultimately, I think everyone is taking an NFL mentality to the NBA. The modern NBA isn't about building rosters.


Maybe the NFL should start building rosters like the one team that does so. Just saying.

I don't have a clue what that means.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:38 am

HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
HJS wrote:Ultimately, I think everyone is taking an NFL mentality to the NBA. The modern NBA isn't about building rosters.


Maybe the NFL should start building rosters like the one team that does so. Just saying.

I don't have a clue what that means.


You said the NBA is adopting an NFL mentality. Then you said the modern NBA isn't about building rosters, implying that the NFL mentality is not about building rosters. I completely disagree and think the two are polar opposites, particularly for the teams that win all the time. So I suggested maybe the bulk of the NFL should build some rosters, like the Seahawks, Steelers or Patriots.

More on point however, the NBA and the NFL are polar opposites when it comes to roster building. Nature of 15 players versus as many as 60-65.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:39 am

twballgame9 wrote:I'm fine saying the Sixers have more hyped players and if all of them live up to the hype, they will have the potential to have a solid young core in a year or two. Of course, Timberwolves.

My only objection is the assumption that Porzingas has already proven he's a superstar worth trading Brown, the #3 and next years probably top 3 pick - three potential superstars -- for. I'll take three chances at a star over one.

I don't think Porzingas is a superstar. I just think he is monumentally better than Jaylen Brown, #3 and 2018. And, if the Cs were to land Porzingas for such a package, it would be the second biggest steal since the last time Boston traded with a NYC team. Chad Ford was on the radio this morning (ripping Phil Jackson) and said that he wouldn't trade KP for the #3 and Brooklyn's pick even if it was already guaranteed to be the #1 overall.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:42 am

HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:I'm fine saying the Sixers have more hyped players and if all of them live up to the hype, they will have the potential to have a solid young core in a year or two. Of course, Timberwolves.

My only objection is the assumption that Porzingas has already proven he's a superstar worth trading Brown, the #3 and next years probably top 3 pick - three potential superstars -- for. I'll take three chances at a star over one.

I don't think Porzingas is a superstar. I just think he is monumentally better than Jaylen Brown, #3 and 2018. And, if the Cs were to land Porzingas for such a package, it would be the second biggest steal since the last time Boston traded with a NYC team. Chad Ford was on the radio this morning (ripping Phil Jackson) and said that he wouldn't trade KP for the #3 and Brooklyn's pick even if it was already guaranteed to be the #1 overall.


I don't think there is anyway to tell if Porzingas is monumentally better than Brown at this stage. Brown is 10x the athlete, and grew by leaps and bounds this season. Whether he gets there or not is always the crapshoot, but his ceiling is WAY higher than Porzingas. Therein lies the fundamental issue here, most of us think you are over valuing Porzingas. Good player and a great fit for the Celtics, but not worth three shots at a superstar.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:43 am

twballgame9 wrote:
HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
HJS wrote:Ultimately, I think everyone is taking an NFL mentality to the NBA. The modern NBA isn't about building rosters.


Maybe the NFL should start building rosters like the one team that does so. Just saying.

I don't have a clue what that means.


You said the NBA is adopting an NFL mentality. Then you said the modern NBA isn't about building rosters, implying that the NFL mentality is not about building rosters. I completely disagree and think the two are polar opposites, particularly for the teams that win all the time. So I suggested maybe the rest of the NFL should build some rosters, like the Seahawks, Steelers or Patriots.

More on point however, the NBA and the NFL are polar opposites when it comes to roster building. Nature of 15 players versus as many as 60-65.

No... I was saying posters here were taking an NFL mentality to these discussions... where elite NBA teams are built very differently (everything is geared around a superstar). We are probably saying the same thing.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am

And again, I'd trade two of the picks and Crowder or Bradley for Porzingas. But the Knicks aren't remotely good enough to gain value from a guy like Crowder or Bradley. They want Brown for a reason that most of us can see.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:46 am

HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
HJS wrote:Ultimately, I think everyone is taking an NFL mentality to the NBA. The modern NBA isn't about building rosters.


Maybe the NFL should start building rosters like the one team that does so. Just saying.

I don't have a clue what that means.


You said the NBA is adopting an NFL mentality. Then you said the modern NBA isn't about building rosters, implying that the NFL mentality is not about building rosters. I completely disagree and think the two are polar opposites, particularly for the teams that win all the time. So I suggested maybe the rest of the NFL should build some rosters, like the Seahawks, Steelers or Patriots.

More on point however, the NBA and the NFL are polar opposites when it comes to roster building. Nature of 15 players versus as many as 60-65.

No... I was saying posters here were taking an NFL mentality to these discussions... where elite NBA teams are built very differently (everything is geared around a superstar). We are probably saying the same thing.


Got it, I misread. By everyone, I thought you meant NBA GMs.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:59 am

twballgame9 wrote:And again, I'd trade two of the picks and Crowder or Bradley for Porzingas. But the Knicks aren't remotely good enough to gain value from a guy like Crowder or Bradley. They want Brown for a reason that most of us can see.

I don't think the Knicks are asking anything from the Celtics. I proposed the trade as something the Knicks could possibly consider if their goal was to blow-it-up and go full youth movement. You are right that Crowder does nothing for that, and that is why I instead mentioned Brown. I don't have the same view of Brown as you do. I think he is a nice player with good upside. But, I see him more as a Richard Jefferson than a superstar. I'd note that Caris Levert (how is that a name?) had identical numbers in his rookie season. Nonetheless, even though I proposed it as a possible trade, if I am the Knicks, KP is untouchable (but the only untouchable on my roster).
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:09 am

I don't have full faith in 7 foot+ guys that are already developing foot problems.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:12 am

HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:And again, I'd trade two of the picks and Crowder or Bradley for Porzingas. But the Knicks aren't remotely good enough to gain value from a guy like Crowder or Bradley. They want Brown for a reason that most of us can see.

I don't think the Knicks are asking anything from the Celtics. I proposed the trade as something the Knicks could possibly consider if their goal was to blow-it-up and go full youth movement. You are right that Crowder does nothing for that, and that is why I instead mentioned Brown. I don't have the same view of Brown as you do. I think he is a nice player with good upside. But, I see him more as a Richard Jefferson than a superstar. I'd note that Caris Levert (how is that a name?) had identical numbers in his rookie season. Nonetheless, even though I proposed it as a possible trade, if I am the Knicks, KP is untouchable (but the only untouchable on my roster).


You can't project a 19 year old's stats. 22 year old Marcus Smart was FAR better than 22 year old Jimmy Butler, but I think it unlikely the former will become close to the latter. Maybe, he certainly has all the tools other than shooting (and for him, with a decent stroke, that's probably just confidence and time in the gym). I just didn't see it until he dropped 27/5/7 on the Cavs in a playoff game. So who knows. These guys are 20, 21 and 22 years old. Few show greatness at that age.

Brown's the NBA equivalent of a five tool player. Whether that translates to superstar is between the ears.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:21 am

Re Caris LeVert, put Jaylen Brown on the Nets and he starts and goes for 15/7 a night.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:26 am

You know who else's stats as a 20 year old look a lot like Brown's? Paul George. Kawhi Leonard, too, but he got a lot more minutes.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby gallopingghost on Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:51 am

It would be a big mistake to trade away the Brooklyn pick. The Nets just traded away Lopez and got Russell, so they will suck even more than they did this year. Russell is not really a good enough passer or quick enough to be a legit point guard, but not really big enough to be a 2. The Nets, the gift that just keeps on giving.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:32 am

gallopingghost wrote:It would be a big mistake to trade away the Brooklyn pick. The Nets just traded away Lopez and got Russell, so they will suck even more than they did this year. Russell is not really a good enough passer or quick enough to be a legit point guard, but not really big enough to be a 2. The Nets, the gift that just keeps on giving.

This post is the epitome of what I keep talking about. Simultaneously, over-inflating the value of an NBA top pick while bashing a top pick who was (just a couple of years ago) universally lauded as the next great player.

Just two years ago, the Lakers were applauded for getting Russell (who many thought was the best player in a good draft https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... /27758821/). I have no idea how good Russell is or isn't. Pretty sure I've never seen a minute of a Laker game over the past 2 years. But, I have a hard time believing this thread when a 21-year-old Russell is buried, a 21-year-old Porzingas has already reached his potential but a 20-year-old Jaylen Brown hasn't begun to scratch the surface of his potential (even though he has worse stats than the aforementioned).
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:44 am

HJS wrote:
gallopingghost wrote:It would be a big mistake to trade away the Brooklyn pick. The Nets just traded away Lopez and got Russell, so they will suck even more than they did this year. Russell is not really a good enough passer or quick enough to be a legit point guard, but not really big enough to be a 2. The Nets, the gift that just keeps on giving.

This post is the epitome of what I keep talking about. Simultaneously, over-inflating the value of an NBA top pick while bashing a top pick who was (just a couple of years ago) universally lauded as the next great player.

Just two years ago, the Lakers were applauded for getting Russell (who many thought was the best player in a good draft https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... /27758821/). I have no idea how good Russell is or isn't. Pretty sure I've never seen a minute of a Laker game over the past 2 years. But, I have a hard time believing this thread when a 21-year-old Russell is buried, a 21-year-old Porzingas has already reached his potential but a 20-year-old Jaylen Brown hasn't begun to scratch the surface of his potential (even though he has worse stats than the aforementioned).


Point that you are ignoring is that every one of the NBA's superstars was drafted, usually in high places like that Brooklyn pick. Why trade potentially three shots at a superstar for a guy that's a nice piece and a good fit.

Your reliance on stats for 19 year olds continues to be dumb, so I will pass on pointing out the comparisons again. Potential has nothing to do with whether you got more minutes for an absolute shit bag of a team with no talent.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:44 am

The Celtics are a stable organization that has done a decent, not Spurs-esque but not early-2000s Clippers-esque, job developing talent. The Lakers were not, but might be moving forward with Magic and the white dude from those Fab 5 teams. That has something to do with it, as well.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:10 am

twballgame9 wrote:Point that you are ignoring is that every one of the NBA's superstars was drafted, usually in high places like that Brooklyn pick. Why trade potentially three shots at a superstar for a guy that's a nice piece and a good fit.

I don't really include your posts in the same light as others. You have consistently talked about the "CHANCE" of grabbing a superstar. You seem to accept the crapshoot nature of it and hope that with more attempts, one will finally pan out.

However, I'm not entirely sure if current superstars come mostly from the Top 3. Looking at the First Team All-NBA teams over the past four years, only 3 of 11 were Top 3 selections:
Harden #13
Lebron #1
Westbrook #4
Leonard #15
Davis #1
Jordan #35
Curry #7
Gasol #48
Paul #4
Durant #2
Noah #9

That said, it absolutely used to be the case that top players came exclusively from the top of the draft. But, I think that the value has eroded as the game has changed and one-and-dones have become prolific. Too few samples... too many unknown variables... making it extremely difficult to project these players to the NBA.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:39 am

HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Point that you are ignoring is that every one of the NBA's superstars was drafted, usually in high places like that Brooklyn pick. Why trade potentially three shots at a superstar for a guy that's a nice piece and a good fit.

I don't really include your posts in the same light as others. You have consistently talked about the "CHANCE" of grabbing a superstar. You seem to accept the crapshoot nature of it and hope that with more attempts, one will finally pan out.

However, I'm not entirely sure if current superstars come mostly from the Top 3. Looking at the First Team All-NBA teams over the past four years, only 3 of 11 were Top 3 selections:
Harden #13
Lebron #1
Westbrook #4
Leonard #15
Davis #1
Jordan #35
Curry #7
Gasol #48
Paul #4
Durant #2
Noah #9

That said, it absolutely used to be the case that top players came exclusively from the top of the draft. But, I think that the value has eroded as the game has changed and one-and-dones have become prolific. Too few samples... too many unknown variables... making it extremely difficult to project these players to the NBA.


The guys on that list from later in the draft took time develop - Leonard and Harden for example. And by making it "Top 3" you conveniently ignore Paul and Westbrook at #4 and Curry at 7.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:52 am

twballgame9 wrote:[And by making it "Top 3" you conveniently ignore Paul and Westbrook at #4 and Curry at 7.

Conveniently using Top 3 based on your previous comment.
twballgame9 wrote:Celtics definitely want the Nets pick which is about 99.999% likely to be top 3.

I would assume you'd feel much differently about the value of the Nets pick if you knew it would be the 7th.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:00 pm

HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:[And by making it "Top 3" you conveniently ignore Paul and Westbrook at #4 and Curry at 7.

Conveniently using Top 3 based on your previous comment.
twballgame9 wrote:Celtics definitely want the Nets pick which is about 99.999% likely to be top 3.

I would assume you'd feel much differently about the value of the Nets pick if you knew it would be the 7th.



My quote was: "Point that you are ignoring is that every one of the NBA's superstars was drafted, usually in high places like that Brooklyn pick." 4 is a high place.

Yes, I would feel differently on the chances of the pick netting a superstar with every slot it moved back in the draft.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby Manny on Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:57 pm

twballgame9 wrote:
HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Point that you are ignoring is that every one of the NBA's superstars was drafted, usually in high places like that Brooklyn pick. Why trade potentially three shots at a superstar for a guy that's a nice piece and a good fit.

I don't really include your posts in the same light as others. You have consistently talked about the "CHANCE" of grabbing a superstar. You seem to accept the crapshoot nature of it and hope that with more attempts, one will finally pan out.

However, I'm not entirely sure if current superstars come mostly from the Top 3. Looking at the First Team All-NBA teams over the past four years, only 3 of 11 were Top 3 selections:
Harden #13
Lebron #1
Westbrook #4
Leonard #15
Davis #1
Jordan #35
Curry #7
Gasol #48
Paul #4
Durant #2
Noah #9

That said, it absolutely used to be the case that top players came exclusively from the top of the draft. But, I think that the value has eroded as the game has changed and one-and-dones have become prolific. Too few samples... too many unknown variables... making it extremely difficult to project these players to the NBA.


The guys on that list from later in the draft took time develop - Leonard and Harden for example. And by making it "Top 3" you conveniently ignore Paul and Westbrook at #4 and Curry at 7.


He may not have been a star right away, but Leonard averaged something like 15 and 10 in the finals his second year, and was Finals MVP in his third. And his first year was the lockout year. He's much better than he was when he first came into the league, but he was a difference maker from day 1 and a clear future star by year 3.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:18 am

Manny wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Point that you are ignoring is that every one of the NBA's superstars was drafted, usually in high places like that Brooklyn pick. Why trade potentially three shots at a superstar for a guy that's a nice piece and a good fit.

I don't really include your posts in the same light as others. You have consistently talked about the "CHANCE" of grabbing a superstar. You seem to accept the crapshoot nature of it and hope that with more attempts, one will finally pan out.

However, I'm not entirely sure if current superstars come mostly from the Top 3. Looking at the First Team All-NBA teams over the past four years, only 3 of 11 were Top 3 selections:
Harden #13
Lebron #1
Westbrook #4
Leonard #15
Davis #1
Jordan #35
Curry #7
Gasol #48
Paul #4
Durant #2
Noah #9

That said, it absolutely used to be the case that top players came exclusively from the top of the draft. But, I think that the value has eroded as the game has changed and one-and-dones have become prolific. Too few samples... too many unknown variables... making it extremely difficult to project these players to the NBA.


The guys on that list from later in the draft took time develop - Leonard and Harden for example. And by making it "Top 3" you conveniently ignore Paul and Westbrook at #4 and Curry at 7.


He may not have been a star right away, but Leonard averaged something like 15 and 10 in the finals his second year, and was Finals MVP in his third. And his first year was the lockout year. He's much better than he was when he first came into the league, but he was a difference maker from day 1 and a clear future star by year 3.


That's fair. I'm just distinguishing that from the immediate impact guys like LeBron or Durant. Granted Leonard was on the Spurs and Harden the Thunder, but that's also the point about not knowing whether Brown or Smart will ever get there. They don't get the minutes yet. Porzingas did.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby Hunta518 on Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:41 am

HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Point that you are ignoring is that every one of the NBA's superstars was drafted, usually in high places like that Brooklyn pick. Why trade potentially three shots at a superstar for a guy that's a nice piece and a good fit.

I don't really include your posts in the same light as others. You have consistently talked about the "CHANCE" of grabbing a superstar. You seem to accept the crapshoot nature of it and hope that with more attempts, one will finally pan out.

However, I'm not entirely sure if current superstars come mostly from the Top 3. Looking at the First Team All-NBA teams over the past four years, only 3 of 11 were Top 3 selections:
Harden #13
Lebron #1
Westbrook #4
Leonard #15
Davis #1
Jordan #35
Curry #7
Gasol #48
Paul #4
Durant #2
Noah #9

That said, it absolutely used to be the case that top players came exclusively from the top of the draft. But, I think that the value has eroded as the game has changed and one-and-dones have become prolific. Too few samples... too many unknown variables... making it extremely difficult to project these players to the NBA.


#13 is Harden's number. He was drafted #3 overall in 2009.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:58 am

twballgame9 wrote:That's fair. I'm just distinguishing that from the immediate impact guys like LeBron or Durant. Granted Leonard was on the Spurs and Harden the Thunder, but that's also the point about not knowing whether Brown or Smart will ever get there. They don't get the minutes yet. Porzingas did.

In fairness, you can't compare anyone to LeBron and Durant as they are generational players. It's been 14 years since LeBron was drafted and we haven't seen anything like him since. It's been 10 years since Durant was drafted and we haven't seen anything like him either.

I think you can write a dissertation on the devolution of basketball and use the NBA Draft as evidence. Prior to 2005, the #1 draft pick guaranteed you an All Star player. Only on a handful of times did was that pick a bust (Kwame Brown, Mike Olowakandi)... and rarely was that player merely solid (Joe Smith, Pervis Ellison, Andrew Bogut). Going back to what I consider the Golden Era of BB (1979 Draft), of the 27 the #1 picks from 1979-2005, a minimum of 12 will be Hall of Famers... of those 27, 23 make the All Star game multiple times.

However, beginning in 2006 (which is the year they re-did the NBA draft rules and ushered in the time of one-and-done) the #1 selections have been uneven (some excellent players for sure, but Hall of Famers?... hard to see more than a couple).
2006 - Andrea Bargnani
2007 - Greg Oden
2008 - Derrick Rose
2009 - Blake Griffin
2010 - John Wall
2011 - Kyrie Irving
2012 - Anthony Davis
2013 - Anthony Bennett
2014 - Andrew Wiggins
2015 - Karl-Anthony Towns
2016 - Ben Simmons

What's worse for the NBA, is that after the 2005 Draft, the depth in the Draft classes are relatively abysmal. For instance, looking at the top of these classes, you will see a drastic increase in absolute busts in the Top 10. I'm pretty sure you some geek somewhere can use some sort of cybermetric algo to better show this. But, just anecdotally clicking through these drafts, it is a walk down memory lane when you are in the 90s and early 2000s and a freaking laugh-track when you get closer to present day.
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby twballgame9 on Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:53 am

HJS wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:That's fair. I'm just distinguishing that from the immediate impact guys like LeBron or Durant. Granted Leonard was on the Spurs and Harden the Thunder, but that's also the point about not knowing whether Brown or Smart will ever get there. They don't get the minutes yet. Porzingas did.

In fairness, you can't compare anyone to LeBron and Durant as they are generational players. It's been 14 years since LeBron was drafted and we haven't seen anything like him since. It's been 10 years since Durant was drafted and we haven't seen anything like him either.

I think you can write a dissertation on the devolution of basketball and use the NBA Draft as evidence. Prior to 2005, the #1 draft pick guaranteed you an All Star player. Only on a handful of times did was that pick a bust (Kwame Brown, Mike Olowakandi)... and rarely was that player merely solid (Joe Smith, Pervis Ellison, Andrew Bogut). Going back to what I consider the Golden Era of BB (1979 Draft), of the 27 the #1 picks from 1979-2005, a minimum of 12 will be Hall of Famers... of those 27, 23 make the All Star game multiple times.

However, beginning in 2006 (which is the year they re-did the NBA draft rules and ushered in the time of one-and-done) the #1 selections have been uneven (some excellent players for sure, but Hall of Famers?... hard to see more than a couple).
2006 - Andrea Bargnani
2007 - Greg Oden
2008 - Derrick Rose
2009 - Blake Griffin
2010 - John Wall
2011 - Kyrie Irving
2012 - Anthony Davis
2013 - Anthony Bennett
2014 - Andrew Wiggins
2015 - Karl-Anthony Towns
2016 - Ben Simmons

What's worse for the NBA, is that after the 2005 Draft, the depth in the Draft classes are relatively abysmal. For instance, looking at the top of these classes, you will see a drastic increase in absolute busts in the Top 10. I'm pretty sure you some geek somewhere can use some sort of cybermetric algo to better show this. But, just anecdotally clicking through these drafts, it is a walk down memory lane when you are in the 90s and early 2000s and a freaking laugh-track when you get closer to present day.


If you are defining generational players as only those that can make an immediate top end impact, then yes, those guys are the only generational players. In my mind in the NBA, where players enter the league with shit for skills and way too young, skinny and immature, you can develop top end players on the level of LeBron or Durant - guys like Harden, Leonard, Westbrook. In the old days, dudes were developed and seniors by the time they came out.

I'd also suggest, again, that immediate impact for rookies is like real estate, location, location, location, with bad location being good in this instance. Durant's first Seattle team got out to a 3-15 start and finished 20-62, which netted them Russell Westbrook with the 4th pick. Of course, that team went 23-59, which netted them James Harden. Good thing they did not devalue all those top-5 draft picks, eh?
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Re: Celtics fans playoff thread

Postby HJS on Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:59 am

twballgame9 wrote:I'd also suggest, again, that immediate impact for rookies is like real estate, location, location, location, with bad location being good in this instance. Durant's first Seattle team got out to a 3-15 start and finished 20-62, which netted them Russell Westbrook with the 4th pick. Of course, that team went 23-59, which netted them James Harden. Good thing they did not devalue all those top-5 draft picks, eh?

Just like the Grizzlies... who also chose to not devalue their Top 5 draft picks for those same drafts (Mike Conley (#4), OJ Mayo (#3) and Hasheem Thabeet (#2)).
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