claver2010 {l Wrote}:innocentbystander {l Wrote}:There is only going to be 4 chairs at the 16 team super conference table. The ACC really needs to be the first conference to 16 if they want to survive since they are the odd man out.
no
if anything, these last 6 months have proved this to not be the case at all
I agree.
First of all, there's clearly no rush for 16. I think the BIG and the ACC are waiting on ND (who is waiting for more of a sample size to determine the effect of the playoffs on its independence) and the SEC and Pac 12 see no need to be the first ones to make a move.
More so, whenever it does happen, I think the recent ACC Network deal guarantees the ACC won't get left behind in any move to 16 any time soon. Quite simply, there's no way ND gets left out of a 4x16 top tier, and now if 4x16 happens before 2035, ND will be #15 in the ACC.
The Big 12 is on the outside looking in. First of all, unless they can pull another P5 school, which seems really unlikely now that the ACC has shut it's doors, any 16-team conference it can form is going to be cobbled together from some really slim pickings. Sure, you get BYU. But after that who are the other 5 teams the Big 12 is grabbing? Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, UConn, Tulane, UCF, USF... The Big 12 would be half AAC. Which means that when the BIG, SEC and Pac 12 come looking for 2/4 more to round out to 16, teams like Texas and Oklahoma are going to be really, really tempted to head elsewhere. The Big 12 will fold. The good news is that in that scenario we can grab WVU as #16 instead of UConn.
Pac 16: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State (staying together as a block) and maybe BYU.
SEC: Texas Tech and Baylor/TCU (SEC trying to dominate Texas)
Big: Kansas and Iowa State (AAU and Iowa politicians close the deal for Iowa State)
ACC: ND and WVU
Leftovers: Kansas State and Baylor/TCU.