ESPN/television contract Question

[HJS]

If the B12 deal's "membership clause" is nothing more than subtract or add pro rata based on the number of teams (for instance 20mm per team no matter who they add or lose), it essentially puts a trading collar on the conference. While it protects their downside risk (i.e. losing Oklahoma and Texas), it completely nullifies any upside with the addition of a national program like ND or FSU. FSU would truly be "Dave Haggard Stupid"(TM) to make the move. Between the buyout, the potential partial shares and the travel increase, the $3mm per year average difference is immaterial. While there certainly would be additional revenues generated by a B12 title games... and you can't argue away the potential issues surrounding the Champions Bowl (that Swoffy was asleep at the switch for)... the 5-year "look-ins" (when Swofford is no longer the commish) offer much more potential. All that said... as we've seen before, the media isn't very accurate when it comes to reporting these deals.

Finally... I will be interested to see if the B12 teams granted their TV rights for the full 13 years. To get TCU and WVU to come, they offered their TV rights for a period of 6 years. The announcement of the B12 deal has articles (like the one linked below) that say the expectation is that the B12 teams granted TV rigths for the entire term of the new deal. If that is true, then the B12 isn't going anywhere over the next 13 years. And, if the SEC or B10 is looking to expand, there is only one conference that is poachable. Wow. We won't ever be out from under Reallignment Armeggedon.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal ... d/18984821

[Walsh601]

At this point, any defections to the Big XII would not be based wholly on the money, but to insure a place at the table - and concurrent playoff access - at one of the power conferences. Barring any future, unforeseen developments, it's pretty clear that the ACC will not be one of the power conferences. The money might be roughly equivalent for the next few years, but if the Big Four continue distancing themselves from the rest of the conferences it would really be more encouraging to be at the table than outside looking in.

[HJS]

At this point, any defections to the Big XII would not be based wholly on the money, but to insure a place at the table - and concurrent playoff access - at one of the power conferences. Barring any future, unforeseen developments, it's pretty clear that the ACC will not be one of the power conferences. The money might be roughly equivalent for the next few years, but if the Big Four continue distancing themselves from the rest of the conferences it would really be more encouraging to be at the table than outside looking in.

If the currently constituted ACC cannot get a team at the end of the year into the Top 4 over the next decade, it has no business complaining about the distance between itself and the other conferences. While it looks like the ACC will not be among the Big 4 now, I think we can all agree that a few months ago, we were all saying that about the B12. Only the P12 voting down the addition of Texas and Oklahoma saved that conference. Similarly, if the B12 votes down the addition of FSU and Clemson, there is no telling what could happen with the ACC. The big difference is that the B12 changed its leadership. The ACC needs to do the same.

[eagle9903]

At this point, any defections to the Big XII would not be based wholly on the money, but to insure a place at the table - and concurrent playoff access - at one of the power conferences. Barring any future, unforeseen developments, it's pretty clear that the ACC will not be one of the power conferences. The money might be roughly equivalent for the next few years, but if the Big Four continue distancing themselves from the rest of the conferences it would really be more encouraging to be at the table than outside looking in.

Perhaps a silly question, but outside of the Champions Bowl, which as of yet not particularly meaningful and a slightly better TV deal, were is the separation between the big 4(notably the Big12) and the ACC?

Sure, if the plus 1 happens the ACC is fucked and if FSU leaves its pretty clear who the 4 power conferences are, but it annoys me to see "barring any future, unforeseen developments" the ACC will not be a power conference when if the 4 team playoff occurs and FSU stays the ACC is on paper no worse than any other conference (other than on the field).

[innocentbystander]

At this point, any defections to the Big XII would not be based wholly on the money, but to insure a place at the table - and concurrent playoff access - at one of the power conferences. Barring any future, unforeseen developments, it's pretty clear that the ACC will not be one of the power conferences. The money might be roughly equivalent for the next few years, but if the Big Four continue distancing themselves from the rest of the conferences it would really be more encouraging to be at the table than outside looking in.

If the currently constituted ACC cannot get a team at the end of the year into the Top 4 over the next decade, it has no business complaining about the distance between itself and the other conferences.

If one team in the ACC goes 9-3, five teams in the ACC go 8-4, two teams go 7-5, one team goes 6-6, two teams go 4-8, and Duke goes 3-9, that might be the highest collective winning percentage of any of the BCS conferences. That is much more likely than any team going 11-1. I would argue that would make the ACC the best of them all...

Unfortunately, college football doesn't care about overall winning percentage when they weight the strength of the conferences. They only care about how good the best teams are at the top. The ACC doesn't have those anymore. Depth is worth, bupkis.

While it looks like the ACC will not be among the Big 4 now, I think we can all agree that a few months ago, we were all saying that about the B12. Only the P12 voting down the addition of Texas and Oklahoma saved that conference.

Stop

[HJS]

At this point, any defections to the Big XII would not be based wholly on the money, but to insure a place at the table - and concurrent playoff access - at one of the power conferences. Barring any future, unforeseen developments, it's pretty clear that the ACC will not be one of the power conferences. The money might be roughly equivalent for the next few years, but if the Big Four continue distancing themselves from the rest of the conferences it would really be more encouraging to be at the table than outside looking in.

Perhaps a silly question, but outside of the Champions Bowl, which as of yet not particularly meaningful and a slightly better TV deal, were is the separation between the big 4(notably the Big12) and the ACC?

Sure, if the plus 1 happens the ACC is fucked and if FSU leaves its pretty clear who the 4 power conferences are, but it annoys me to see "barring any future, unforeseen developments" the ACC will not be a power conference when if the 4 team playoff occurs and FSU stays the ACC is on paper no worse than any other conference (other than on the field).

Plus-One concerns aside, if the B12 granted TV rights for 13 years, then the ACC is the new Big East for the SEC and B10 to have its way with whenever it so chooses.

[eagle9903]

At this point, any defections to the Big XII would not be based wholly on the money, but to insure a place at the table - and concurrent playoff access - at one of the power conferences. Barring any future, unforeseen developments, it's pretty clear that the ACC will not be one of the power conferences. The money might be roughly equivalent for the next few years, but if the Big Four continue distancing themselves from the rest of the conferences it would really be more encouraging to be at the table than outside looking in.

Perhaps a silly question, but outside of the Champions Bowl, which as of yet not particularly meaningful and a slightly better TV deal, were is the separation between the big 4(notably the Big12) and the ACC?

Sure, if the plus 1 happens the ACC is fucked and if FSU leaves its pretty clear who the 4 power conferences are, but it annoys me to see "barring any future, unforeseen developments" the ACC will not be a power conference when if the 4 team playoff occurs and FSU stays the ACC is on paper no worse than any other conference (other than on the field).

Plus-One concerns aside, if the B12 granted TV rights for 13 years, then the ACC is the new Big East for the SEC and B10 to have its way with whenever it so chooses.

Right, presuming that there is a reason those conferences would want to expand.

[HJS]

At this point, any defections to the Big XII would not be based wholly on the money, but to insure a place at the table - and concurrent playoff access - at one of the power conferences. Barring any future, unforeseen developments, it's pretty clear that the ACC will not be one of the power conferences. The money might be roughly equivalent for the next few years, but if the Big Four continue distancing themselves from the rest of the conferences it would really be more encouraging to be at the table than outside looking in.

Perhaps a silly question, but outside of the Champions Bowl, which as of yet not particularly meaningful and a slightly better TV deal, were is the separation between the big 4(notably the Big12) and the ACC?

Sure, if the plus 1 happens the ACC is fucked and if FSU leaves its pretty clear who the 4 power conferences are, but it annoys me to see "barring any future, unforeseen developments" the ACC will not be a power conference when if the 4 team playoff occurs and FSU stays the ACC is on paper no worse than any other conference (other than on the field).

Plus-One concerns aside, if the B12 granted TV rights for 13 years, then the ACC is the new Big East for the SEC and B10 to have its way with whenever it so chooses.

Right, presuming that there is a reason those conferences would want to expand.

The SEC wants to go to 16. The question is whether any of the schools they are interested in (Oklahoma, Texas, UNC, VT, MD) become available. The B10 are OK for now. But, that could change after their next TV contract. I think the landscape could support 5 superconferences. I think 4 is too few (i.e. leaves way too many quality programs out to truly be considered all-encompassing). That said, it really says a lot that the ACC schools wouldn't grant their TV rights when the P12 and B12 have already done so (and the B10 and SEC don't need to). All they've done is assure that every Spring/Summer we will have to deal with this nonsense.

[Walsh601]

At this point, any defections to the Big XII would not be based wholly on the money, but to insure a place at the table - and concurrent playoff access - at one of the power conferences. Barring any future, unforeseen developments, it's pretty clear that the ACC will not be one of the power conferences. The money might be roughly equivalent for the next few years, but if the Big Four continue distancing themselves from the rest of the conferences it would really be more encouraging to be at the table than outside looking in.

Perhaps a silly question, but outside of the Champions Bowl, which as of yet not particularly meaningful and a slightly better TV deal, were is the separation between the big 4(notably the Big12) and the ACC?

Sure, if the plus 1 happens the ACC is fucked and if FSU leaves its pretty clear who the 4 power conferences are, but it annoys me to see "barring any future, unforeseen developments" the ACC will not be a power conference when if the 4 team playoff occurs and FSU stays the ACC is on paper no worse than any other conference (other than on the field).

1. Money. The ACC might not be that far of the Big XII, but it will be left in the dust by the Pac 12, Big 10 and SEC. An even bigger disparity in money available for top tier coaching staffs and facilities would make recruiting an uphill battle.

2. Perception/National relevance. This gets fuzzy, but its still important. Lack of MNC's, atrocious BCS record, unfavorable head-to-head records and the like take a toll in the perception of the conference amongst media, recruits and general fans. This could translate in even lower attendance and TV ratings. Back in 2003 the ACC was not a better football conference than the Big East. The perception it was was enough.

[eagle9903]

At this point, any defections to the Big XII would not be based wholly on the money, but to insure a place at the table - and concurrent playoff access - at one of the power conferences. Barring any future, unforeseen developments, it's pretty clear that the ACC will not be one of the power conferences. The money might be roughly equivalent for the next few years, but if the Big Four continue distancing themselves from the rest of the conferences it would really be more encouraging to be at the table than outside looking in.

Perhaps a silly question, but outside of the Champions Bowl, which as of yet not particularly meaningful and a slightly better TV deal, were is the separation between the big 4(notably the Big12) and the ACC?

Sure, if the plus 1 happens the ACC is fucked and if FSU leaves its pretty clear who the 4 power conferences are, but it annoys me to see "barring any future, unforeseen developments" the ACC will not be a power conference when if the 4 team playoff occurs and FSU stays the ACC is on paper no worse than any other conference (other than on the field).

Plus-One concerns aside, if the B12 granted TV rights for 13 years, then the ACC is the new Big East for the SEC and B10 to have its way with whenever it so chooses.

Right, presuming that there is a reason those conferences would want to expand.

The SEC wants to go to 16. The question is whether any of the schools they are interested in (Oklahoma, Texas, UNC, VT, MD) become available. The B10 are OK for now. But, that could change after their next TV contract. I think the landscape could support 5 superconferences. I think 4 is too few (i.e. leaves way too many quality programs out to truly be considered all-encompassing). That said, it really says a lot that the ACC schools wouldn't grant their TV rights when the P12 and B12 have already done so (and the B10 and SEC don't need to). All they've done is assure that every Spring/Summer we will have to deal with this nonsense.

I think its possible that the SEC may want to go to 16 because scheduling is difficult at 14, but I find the scheduling reason to be no more or less credible than the general "it makes some sense therefore it must be" message board rumor. I'm not sure they would be willing to expand for MD for instance. I also have a suspicion that previous SEC expansion is going to destroy Missouri's and possibly Texas A&M's program, which may effect the future.

I think if FSU granted their TV rights everyone else would. I think they might do so if some concessions are made in their favor. Or of course they might leave.

[HJS]

The SEC wants to go to 16. The question is whether any of the schools they are interested in (Oklahoma, Texas, UNC, VT, MD) become available. The B10 are OK for now. But, that could change after their next TV contract. I think the landscape could support 5 superconferences. I think 4 is too few (i.e. leaves way too many quality programs out to truly be considered all-encompassing). That said, it really says a lot that the ACC schools wouldn't grant their TV rights when the P12 and B12 have already done so (and the B10 and SEC don't need to). All they've done is assure that every Spring/Summer we will have to deal with this nonsense.

I think its possible that the SEC may want to go to 16 because scheduling is difficult at 14, but I find the scheduling reason to be no more or less credible than the general "it makes some sense therefore it must be" message board rumor. I'm not sure they would be willing to expand for MD for instance. I also have a suspicion that previous SEC expansion is going to destroy Missouri's and possibly Texas A&M's program, which may effect the future.

I think if FSU granted their TV rights everyone else would. I think they might do so if some concessions are made in their favor. Or of course they might leave.

The SEC wants to expand... but they will only do it on their terms (i.e. take whatever program they want). They would trip over themselves to land UNC (much like the ACC would for ND). It is clear to me that the reason some schools did not grant their TV rights was because they wanted to explore other conferences when they learned about the crap deal. They simply did not like it and thought it could cause long term harm for all the programs that compete against the cash cows of the ACC. I think it is safe to say that Clemson and FSU were two of the holdouts. I think it is safe to say that all the private schools (WF, Mia, BC, Cuse, DU) along with Northern schools (MD, Pitt, UNC, NCS, VT and UVA) were willing to assign the rights even for this crap deal. I think that once they realized schools like FSU and CU weren't going to do it... it was a sure sign that we were all in for the Spring/Summer of discontent. If FSU's bid for B12 membership is rebuffed, I think you will see a TV Rights Assignment when Swofford leaves and they are searching for a new Commish (as no one will want to take the job without a guaranteed committment from the membership).

[HJS]

How the 4 team playoff is shaping up. http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footba ... ract-worth
Just a blogger, but kinda summarizes the Miami fan's view of FSU fleeing: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/miami-hurr ... ncaaf.html

[BCWest]

How the 4 team playoff is shaping up. http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footba ... ract-worth
Just a blogger, but kinda summarizes the Miami fan's view of FSU fleeing: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/miami-hurr ... ncaaf.html

From what I have heard, that sporting news article is a pretty good summation of the most likely outcome.

[HJS]

How the 4 team playoff is shaping up. http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footba ... ract-worth
Just a blogger, but kinda summarizes the Miami fan's view of FSU fleeing: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/miami-hurr ... ncaaf.html

From what I have heard, that sporting news article is a pretty good summation of the most likely outcome.

It assure that no conference will be "left out". But, looking back over the past few years, there really hasn't been much chance of an ACC representative in the game. Actually, only BC and VT would have come close to qualifying.

By "conference champion", does that include the champions of the MWC, WAC, Big East, Sun Belt, etc?

[PhillyandBCEagles]

How the 4 team playoff is shaping up. http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footba ... ract-worth
Just a blogger, but kinda summarizes the Miami fan's view of FSU fleeing: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/miami-hurr ... ncaaf.html

From what I have heard, that sporting news article is a pretty good summation of the most likely outcome.

It assure that no conference will be "left out". But, looking back over the past few years, there really hasn't been much chance of an ACC representative in the game. Actually, only BC and VT would have come close to qualifying.

By "conference champion", does that include the champions of the MWC, WAC, Big East, Sun Belt, etc?

2007 showed that an undefeated ACC team has nothing to worry about. More so in the case of FSU or Clemson (or GT), as they'd have an SEC scalp to go along with their conference opponents. The ACC is definitely behind the other 4 conferences but it also isn't the Big East, who did have an undefeated champ passed over for a 1-loss team.

[eaglecaddy]

"CBS, FOX and NBC will also bid on the new postseason, and NBC—desperate to get more deeply into college football—could push the payout to a staggering level no matter the model." To me not even talking to NBC was the ultimate fail of swoffie.

[eagle9903]

"CBS, FOX and NBC will also bid on the new postseason, and NBC—desperate to get more deeply into college football—could push the payout to a staggering level no matter the model." To me not even talking to NBC was the ultimate fail of swoffie.

which time?

[hansen]

[BCEaglesFan]

This article shows why expansion talks with the ACC will go down for now...
http://www.postandcourier.com/section/t ... ourier.com

[HJS]

All Travis did was dumb-down my post from above.

First, I don't think the media has done a particularly good job in explain these media deals. So, I question the veracity or completeness of Dodd's statement. For instance, adding one school might trigger the pro rata element. But, adding 2 may open it up to arbitration and ultimately full re-negotiation.

Second, the only reason I could believe that the B12 would agree to a pro rata membership clause is because of its fear of potentially losing Okla and/or Texas. From the last go around, there was huge angst amongst the B12's future when Tex and Okla were getting rejected by the P12. If they had this deal in place, the likes of Kansas and Iowa State would be secure in their future and that of the B12 regardless of its membership make-up (they were in discussions with the remaining FB schools of the Big East). But, that fear would seem to be a non-issue if everyone truly assigned their TV rights for the length of the deal.

[bcaddict]

If the B12 deal's "membership clause" is nothing more than subtract or add pro rata based on the number of teams (for instance 20mm per team no matter who they add or lose), it essentially puts a trading collar on the conference. While it protects their downside risk (i.e. losing Oklahoma and Texas), it completely nullifies any upside with the addition of a national program like ND or FSU. FSU would truly be "Dave Haggard Stupid"(TM) to make the move. Between the buyout, the potential partial shares and the travel increase, the $3mm per year average difference is immaterial. While there certainly would be additional revenues generated by a B12 title games... and you can't argue away the potential issues surrounding the Champions Bowl (that Swoffy was asleep at the switch for)... the 5-year "look-ins" (when Swofford is no longer the commish) offer much more potential. All that said... as we've seen before, the media isn't very accurate when it comes to reporting these deals.

I agree with all this and, if what Dodds says is true, it somewhat confirms what many have lamented about the ACC and B12 TV Deals: the B12 shouldn't be valued (by ESPN) significantly more than the ACC and, therefore, probably isn't. One of the biggest message board fallacies through all this has been to compare the school revenue output from these TV deals across conferences as if all deals included the same inputs. From the bogus third tier rights' discrepancies (b/w the B12 and the ACC) to the granting of full media rights (P12 v. ACC) to the potential triggering of composition, escalator or look-in clauses (ACC v. B12), what each media provider is paying the respective conference for is NOT the same across all of the rights' contracts. This significant unknown (hell, we even saw it with FSU's President of the BOT regarding the school's own contract) is why I think the FSU/Clemson/GT/Miami/etc departure has been largely overstated and fueled by incorrect comparisons based on ignorant assumptions.

Realignment will only happen if the ACC gets fingered by the new playoff system.

http://www.accsports.com/blogs/jim-youn ... gnment.php

In that link, there's a link to this site, which notes Swofford's switch to a Conference Champs Playoff model--something that I've long thought would be the best way to compel ND to join a conference (and, likely, the ACC)...

http://www.mrsec.com/2012/05/did-an-fsu ... f-partner/

3. Does Swofford suddenly switch sides in the current playoff talks? If the ACC were to suddenly join the Big Ten and Pac-12 in pushing for a champs-only or champs-mostly style of playoff, he’d be exerting pressure in two places. Faced with a champs-only plan, Notre Dame might be forced to actually join a league and the ACC would have a one-in-three shot at grabbing them (along with the Big Ten and the Big 12). In addition, Florida State might suddenly view the ACC, Pitt, Syracuse and all those other “basketball schools” as looking pretty good. What’s the easiest path to a national title and beaucoup playoff dollars: Besting Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and TCU in the Big 12 or beating, well, uh, the field in the ACC? The ACC would clearly be the easier path at the present time (even though FSU has only one its league once and it’s division twice since 2005). In that scenario, it might make greater financial sense for Florida State to stay put.

If Swofford decides the best way to help save his league is to change his stance on the playoffs, that would leave Slive and the SEC outvoted among the major conferences. So it’s at least possible that Haggard’s rant has set of a chain of events that could either a) lead to further conference realignment or b) lead to a playoff system favoring league champions only or mainly. In other words, Haggard’s misinformed rant could be the reason a team like Alabama’s in 2011 might not get a shot at national crown in the future.

And that's exactly what happened (and what Jim Young points out in the ACC article).

[BCWest]

"CBS, FOX and NBC will also bid on the new postseason, and NBC—desperate to get more deeply into college football—could push the payout to a staggering level no matter the model." To me not even talking to NBC was the ultimate fail of swoffie.

Fear of leaving ESPN by Swoffie was probably valid. While not an apples to apples comparison, when MWC left ESPN, they disappeared. They left for more incremental money, but exposure went away. Having said that, ESPN never believed the ACC was going anywhere the past 5 years.

[bcaddict]

How the 4 team playoff is shaping up. http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footba ... ract-worth
Just a blogger, but kinda summarizes the Miami fan's view of FSU fleeing: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/miami-hurr ... ncaaf.html

From what I have heard, that sporting news article is a pretty good summation of the most likely outcome.

If its 3 Conference Champs + 1 Wild Card, I don't expect any ACC team to depart to the B12. If it's top 4 regardless of Conference Championship, then I think it's far more likely that we see FSU/Clemson depart (tho not a guarantee).

[HJS]

How the 4 team playoff is shaping up. http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footba ... ract-worth
Just a blogger, but kinda summarizes the Miami fan's view of FSU fleeing: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/miami-hurr ... ncaaf.html

From what I have heard, that sporting news article is a pretty good summation of the most likely outcome.

If its 3 Conference Champs + 1 Wild Card, I don't expect any ACC team to depart to the B12. If it's top 4 regardless of Conference Championship, then I think it's far more likely that we see FSU/Clemson depart (tho not a guarantee).

If it's Top 4 conf champs, FSU ain't going nowhere and we don't care if they do.
If it's Top 3 plus wild card or if it is 1-4 in the rankings, I don't think it will factor into FSU's decision.
If it is the Plus One, FSU is gonzo.

Btw, when we talk conference champs, I assume it is Top 3/4 champions from NBE, ACC, B12, P12, B10 and ND. Nothing that will happen in these 4-team playoff discussions will force ND into a conference.

[HJS]

One thing to think about... the conference championship requirement could encourage the B12 to grow to 12 teams so they can host a Conference Championship game to determine the playoff rep (as opposed to relying on conference tie-breakers).

[bcaddict]

How the 4 team playoff is shaping up. http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footba ... ract-worth
Just a blogger, but kinda summarizes the Miami fan's view of FSU fleeing: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/miami-hurr ... ncaaf.html

From what I have heard, that sporting news article is a pretty good summation of the most likely outcome.

If its 3 Conference Champs + 1 Wild Card, I don't expect any ACC team to depart to the B12. If it's top 4 regardless of Conference Championship, then I think it's far more likely that we see FSU/Clemson depart (tho not a guarantee).

If it's Top 4 conf champs, FSU ain't going nowhere and we don't care if they do.
If it's Top 3 plus wild card or if it is 1-4 in the rankings, I don't think it will factor into FSU's decision.
If it is the Plus One, FSU is gonzo.

Btw, when we talk conference champs, I assume it is Top 3/4 champions from NBE, ACC, B12, P12, B10 and ND. Nothing that will happen in these 4-team playoff discussions will force ND into a conference.

I think it's easier to win the ACC and finish in the top 3 Conference Champs if you're FSU than it is to come in second in the B12 and beat out the #2 B12 and #2 SEC team; so I think a 3+1 model would definitely factor into FSU's decision-making. And, therefore, make the ACC more appealing.

If ND can steal a Conference Champ bid, it may not incentivize them to join a conference, but if they only get preference w/ the "wildcard" (or the plus one/only non-conference champ), then I absolutely think it will make independence more cumbersome. But to the former point...why would any of the conferences grant ND the same rights the schools w/in their conference get for winning their respective conference?....particularly when 2/3 of those in favor of the 3+1 model (B1G and ACC...P12 being the third) would WANT ND to join their conference (and, therefore, know that this would be the best way to compel them to join a conference)...? Hell, even if you're Slive or Neinas or Scott, why would you want an 11-1 ND team to steal your 12-1 Conference Champ's bid?

Say Oregon wins the P12 at 11-2; Wisconsin the B1G at 12-1; FSU the ACC at 13-0; Alabama the SEC at 12-1 while ND goes 11-1 and another SEC, say Florida, goes 11-1. Bama and FSU are in the playoffs under a 3+1 and then you have Conference Champs Oregon and Wisconsin both likely losing out to ND as one of the 3 Conference Champs and then have to go up against Florida for the plus one? I'm not sure I want that if I'm the B1G or P12...I'd much rather guarantee that one of Oregon/Wisco is guaranteed in the playoff than having both (likely) lose to ND and then to UF.

[bcaddict]

One thing to think about... the conference championship requirement could encourage the B12 to grow to 12 teams so they can host a Conference Championship game to determine the playoff rep (as opposed to relying on conference tie-breakers).

Good point.

But I don't believe that the FSU/Clemson to the B12 decision is all about whether/when the B12 decides to offer and far more about playoff access. Just b/c the B12 wants to expand with FSU/Clemson, doesn't mean they'll go IF playoff access is not encumbered in the ACC (particularly in light of the aforementioned news re: expansion in the B12's TV rights deal).

[HJS]

The SEC, B10, P12, etc. already let ND "steal" a spot in the BCS by treating them as its own conference. They will do it again in the playoff model. The ACC isn't in any position to negotiate as the fallback position of the Plus One ends their seat at the table.

As for what you think is easier for FSU to win, logic doesn't play a role. If the B12 offers, FSU is gone. They are TAMU right now. Nothing the ACC does is going to mend their irrational desire to get the eff out. Clemson will serve the role of Mizzou (reluctant go-along afraid to be left out).

Finally, while favoring conference champs COULD push the B12 to a championship game, it also could hold them at 10. They can play 9 conference games (meaning you play everyone once, so the conf champ is fairly decided). Your tie-breaker could simply be head2head followed by highest rank in the BCS (which helps assure the B12 gets their best chance to have a rep in the playoff).

[eagle9903]

As for what you think is easier for FSU to win, logic doesn't play a role. If the B12 offers, FSU is gone. They are TAMU right now. Nothing the ACC does is going to mend their irrational desire to get the eff out. Clemson will serve the role of Mizzou (reluctant go-along afraid to be left out).

This is the perfect example of confusing the tone of message boards with something bigger. As always, this is not me saying FSU wouldn't go if offered by the Big12 and I think there is a very good chance they would, however, message board posters and some off the cuff comments from the head of the BOT and Derrick Brooks should not be confused with the decision makers in the process.

[pick6pedro]

I also have many problems with the FSU = TAMU statement.