by MattTheEagle on Wed Feb 16, 2011 6:02 pm
I think our chances at NCAA Tournament are much less than 79% although I am closely following BC hoops and really hope they can either beat UNC or VTech away, but I really think we will pretty much have to win one of those games to make the tournament (in addition to having to winning all of: Miami, Virginia and Wake) anything short of that would require a very good ACC tournament appearance. So while I think it is definitely possible we make the tournament this March, I wouldn't say it is probable.
That being said I am happy with what Donahue is doing with this program and I really really like the direction BC is heading. Donahue basically joined the Eagles heading into the 2010-2011 season with 7 scholarship players and just to get some bodies, had to fill his roster over the summer after everyone had already signed LOIs. As a result, he got two last-minute recruits who did not receive any serious looks from high major schools but needed people to give his team any depth whatsoever. So basically I do not understand how your expectations can be too high when someone takes over the program and goes into the summer season with only 7 scholarship players on your roster especially when all of whom were on the team last (plus 3 others) and the team still only wins 15 games (not to mention outside of Duke the ACC wasn't all that great last year either).
Now as for HJS's embedded argument that Donahue should have kept all his guys from transfers as well as the incoming recruits. Donahue wanted to implement a new system and essentially had high expectations of his players wanting them to put in the extra time to work on their shots, more regular practices and off-season conditioning. A couple players were unwilling to put in the work and Donahue was not willing to compromise/did not want to coach players who did not want to be part of a new brand of BC basketball. Fortunately, at least 6 players quickly embraced what Donahue's new vision for the program and really wanted to work hard at improving. I know at least a couple of players have worked extremely hard on improving their game in the offseason and it shows. From what I have heard, during the year Donahue has been practicing regularly which includes watching about 1 hour of film a day. For the most part, I have seen a great deal of improvement and in a very good way our players who stuck around do not look the same as they did last year. I also believe that Donahue very much wanted Kevin Noreen to stick with the Eagles but ultimately with the flood of national attention, he saw BC as rebuilding with a coach he wasn't too familiar and by decommitting he pretty had the option to go anywhere else in the country. Nonetheless, if I were to guess, I would say Noreen is seriously regretting his decision to abandon BC in favor of West Virginia. Then again, at the time the decision seemed to make logical sense and I do not think there was much Donahue could do to get Noreen to stay other than not allowing him to opt out of his LOI which would have been a poor move hurting the program's reputation and success by keeping someone who did not want to stay with the Eagles and would not have worked to buy into Donahue's system.
If Donahue makes the tournament this year I will be extremely happy. I do not think it is hypocritical when I also say that if Skinner had still been coaching and did not make the tournament this year I would have been very disappointed after 13 years with his 9 veteran players under him and 3 incoming players.
Basically the difference for the 2010-2011 expectations is accounted for by:
Skinner => Donahue
9 veterans => 7 veterans who must adjust to a brand of ball different from the last 2 or 3 years under the old coach
3 incoming freshman for a recruiting class Skinner had all the time in the world to recruit => 2 last-minute recruits
If Donahue had a largely veteran team with his guys I would expect that Donahue not only going to the NCAA tournament but winning at least a game or two in it. Not even going to the NCAA would lead me to be very disappointed (like I would have been with Skinner with his 9 veterans and 3 recruits had he not made the tournament).
I feel like if HJS is going to try to argue this it isn't anything more than a game of devil's advocate.