Bracketology

[bignick33]

I posted this on TOS. For those who aren't hockey weirdos, ya might wanna stop here.

Here's USCHO's take:

http://www.uscho.com/news/id,18077/BracketologyFeb102010.html

There are a couple issues for the Hockey East Teams, IMO.

1) I don't think UNH will win Hockey East. They're fading (see the sweep to Maine), and without winning the HE Tourney, they're likely a bubble long-shot. BC, at this point, has to be the favorite, with some others like UMass, Maine, UVM, and even BU not close behind. It will certainly be a tough 2-games in Boston for whoever takes home the trophy, due to the parity in the conference. If UNH failed to make the NCAAs, all of a sudden, the Northeast Regional would likely have three midwest/west teams along with UMaine, using USCHO's scneario.

2) As far as attendance goes, I don't think it matters whether Maine is sent to Worcester or Albany. It's 4 hours from Orono to Worcester and 6 to Albany. From Southern Maine, it's 2 and 4. It's a drivable trip either way, and they'll send their 2 or 3 thou either way. On the other hand, BC would significantly more to Worcester than to Albany. BC fans are fickle, and the fact that it is 2 quick day trips to Worcester rather than 1 longer trip with an overnight to Albany would make a big difference. We'd put 3 to 5 thou in Worcester, but I can't imagine we'd send more than 1 or 2 thou to Albany.

For these reasons, particularly the second, I think it'll just make sense for the NCAA to send BC to Worcester. As has been stated before, it would take something really strange (such as both BC and Maine finishing as 1s) for BC to be sent farther than Worcester. As far as PWR goes, I'm not sure how much opportunity we'll have to rise for the rest of the season. Barring a collapse, I think right now we're playing for seeding in the HE Tourney, and I'm actually fairly optimistic that we'll surpass UNH, if we split our 2 remaining games with them. There's really no team that scares me left on our schedule (other than perhaps the game at Durham, but that has nothing to do with personnel). It would be cool if the top seed came down to our final game of the season against UNH in Chestnut Hill.

The bottom line is that the far-and-away most likely outcome is BC as a 2 in Worcester. We should hope Miami keeps rolling and snags the overall number 1, because that would almost certainly keep them out of Worcester, where they would be hell-bent on avenging their loss to us two years ago. I want nothing to do with them, particularly in the Regionals. It would be a fitting placement for us; after all, we were a 2 seed in Worcester two years ago.

[AdamBC]

You think Miami is gunning for Fort Wayne?

[bignick33]

You think Miami is gunning for Fort Wayne?

Fort Wayne is 165 miles from Oxford. I think the committee will put them there to 1) reward them for being the overall 1-seed and 2) maximize ticket sales.

[eepstein0]

I'm from Maine so I can provide some guidance. Worcester isn't bad from Southern Maine, maybe 2.5 hours. Albany, if I remember it correctly, is a lot farther than 4 hours. There's no direct road there so you have to go down the Mass Pike and up the NY Highway.

It's not really going to matter where Maine plays, they'll bring a ton of fans.

Having said, that, I want no part of North Dakota in the first round and Wisconsin in the 2nd, those are some tough teams.

[twballgame9]

I'm from Maine ...

That explains some things.

[bignick33]

I'm from Maine so I can provide some guidance. Worcester isn't bad from Southern Maine, maybe 2.5 hours. Albany, if I remember it correctly, is a lot farther than 4 hours. There's no direct road there so you have to go down the Mass Pike and up the NY Highway.

It's not really going to matter where Maine plays, they'll bring a ton of fans.

Having said, that, I want no part of North Dakota in the first round and Wisconsin in the 2nd, those are some tough teams.

Admittedly, I've never driven from Maine to Albany. What I was saying, is that Albany as opposed Worcester probably won't deter any Maine fans from attending; Albany is two hours west of Worcester, so it couldn't be more than 2 farther for someone coming from the east or north. My point was that Albany as opposed to Worcester would be much more significant for the BC turnout than it would be for the Maine turnout.

I don't care about UND. We effing own them. They're pretty much on the bubble, so a 3 seed in East or Northeast certainly is a possibility. I wouldn't be thrilled with a Wisconsin draw though. St. Cloud and Bemidji don't scare me at all, but I've only seen each of them play once. I'd rather see one of those two, as opposed to Wiscy or Miami. The only concern would be that we might underestimate them because they aren't big-name teams like Wiscy or even Miami (as of recently).

[eepstein0]

I'm from Maine ...

That explains some things.

I'm from Southern Maine. The non lobsterman and logger portion of the state.

Thanks though.

[bignick33]

I'm from Maine ...

That explains some things.

I'm from Southern Maine. The non lobsterman and logger portion of the state.

Thanks though.

What do you have against lobsters and logs.

[eepstein0]

I'm from Maine ...

That explains some things.

I'm from Southern Maine. The non lobsterman and logger portion of the state.

Thanks though.

What do you have against lobsters and logs.

The Maine Red Claws are a phenomenal name for the D-League team up in Portland.

[twballgame9]

I spent three week in Portland one afternoon a few weeks ago.

[EaglesTalon]

The only concern would be that we might underestimate them because they aren't big-name teams like Wiscy or even Miami (as of recently).

Does BC really have a history of underestimating non-big-name teams in the tournament? The last two examples were when BC needed OT to beat Miami in 2008 and when they beat Mercyhurst 5-4 in 2005, and BC won both of those games.

You have to go back to 2003 to find a time BC lost in the NCAA tournament to a non-big-name team, and that's if you don't consider Cornell a big-name-team.

[bignick33]

The only concern would be that we might underestimate them because they aren't big-name teams like Wiscy or even Miami (as of recently).

Does BC really have a history of underestimating non-big-name teams in the tournament? The last two examples were when BC needed OT to beat Miami in 2008 and when they beat Mercyhurst 5-4 in 2005, and BC won both of those games.

You have to go back to 2003 to find a time BC lost in the NCAA tournament to a non-big-name team, and that's if you don't consider Cornell a big-name-team.

"We" is referring to BC fans. Good points.

[pick6pedro]

I'm from Maine ...

That explains some things.

I'm from Southern Maine. The non lobsterman and logger portion of the state.

Thanks though.

What do you have against lobsters and logs.

The Maine Red Claws are a phenomenal name for the D-League team up in Portland.

Except that red claws means you're dead and about to be eaten.

[BCEagle74]

1 Miami
2 Denver
3 Wisconsin
4 St. Cloud State
5 Bemidji State
6 Boston College
7 Maine
8 Colorado College
9 Massachusetts
10 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Vermont
12 North Dakota
13 Ferris State
14 Cornell
15 New Hampshire
16 RIT

The brackets as we have set them up:

Northeast Regional:

North Dakota vs. Bemidji State
Ferris State vs. St. Cloud State

Midwest Regional:

RIT vs. Miami
Massachusetts vs. Colorado College

East Regional:

Cornell vs. Wisconsin
Vermont vs. Boston College

West Regional:

New Hampshire vs. Denver
Minnesota-Duluth vs. Maine

Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have just one in Vermont vs. Boston College in Albany.

The only place where Vermont can go where there is no Hockey East-Hockey East matchup is to switch with North Dakota.

So our tournament now becomes:

Northeast Regional:

Ferris State vs. St. Cloud State
Vermont vs. Bemidji State

Midwest Regional:

RIT vs. Miami
Massachusetts vs. Colorado College

East Regional:

Cornell vs. Wisconsin
North Dakota vs. Boston College

West Regional:

New Hampshire vs. Denver
Minnesota-Duluth vs. Maine

Do we like the way this looks?

We have no intraconference matchups, so we are OK. Integrity also looks OK.

Do we have an attendance issue? Sure looks like we do.

Let’s do the same thing we did the last two weeks. If you recall, we put forth the theory that Denver has to fly, so it can be sent anywhere. If Wisconsin and St. Cloud both go east, we now have three teams flying. So to minimize the flying, we rearrange where the No. 1 seeds go.

In this case, we assign St. Cloud to St. Paul, then move Denver to Worcester.

Using the same bracketing procedure as above we now wind up with this bracket:

West Regional:

Ferris State vs. St. Cloud State
Vermont vs. Bemidji State

Midwest Regional:

RIT vs. Miami
Massachusetts vs. Colorado College

East Regional:

Cornell vs. Wisconsin
North Dakota vs. Boston College

Northeast Regional:

New Hampshire vs. Denver
Minnesota-Duluth vs. Maine

Let’s take a look.

St. Paul has St. Cloud and Bemidji and Ferris.

Ft. Wayne contains Miami.

Albany is good with Cornell and Boston College.

Worcester is good with Maine and New Hampshire.

So that’s where I’ll hang my hat this week.

[BCEagle74]

1 Miami
2 Denver
3 Wisconsin
4 St. Cloud State
5 Bemidji State
6 Boston College
7 Maine
8 Colorado College
9 Massachusetts
10 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Vermont
12 North Dakota
13 Ferris State
14 Cornell
15 New Hampshire
16 RIT

I would love to see BC get to Worester with St. Cloud State as a 1 if we are Hockey East Regular and Tournament Champions ------or a 2 and avoid Denver, Wisconsin, or Miami until the Frozen Four.

Maybe get 16 RIT and Minnesota Duluth.

Beating the top 3, I would hope for an upset of one and just have to beat one of the big 3.

Denver was something else coming back versus a young BC squad and that was a great, great lesson since York does this every year by scheduling the previous National Champions or the top western teams.

ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE ASSCLOWN VILLAGE, THE YAWKEY YOKELS, Gene DeFilippo, Frank Spaziani and Al Skinner.

ALSLEEP scheduled so many cupcakes this year that the sugar high came back and bit him in the ass which was his poor motivating skills, recruiting skills, in game coaching skills, inbounds play skills, timeout skills, press skills, boxing out skills, rebounding skills, and these poor teams whupped BC.

Then we have GDF.........hmmmmmm...should I call TCU since they have not 1 but 2 openings and maybe get a national televised game for BC at home with no return game at which is what TCU did with Virginia and Clemson????

Or better yet schedule a nice 6-8 game home and home series for a long time since TCU is a national stage program and we can get rid of the Massachusetts and FCS schools??????

Maybe re-call Texas back and see if they still wanna do that long term home and home National TV opener or as 74 named it the Patriot Bowl/Lobster Bowl/Bean Bowl? or the Yankee-Rebel Series????

Nope...we get the Weber Kettle Kids and those crips potato chips!!

I despise BC's administration, Jesuits who hire shitheads for faculty and this Athletic Department is a national joke.

WE HAD BRIAN KELLY GIFT WRAPPED.

WE HAD TCU AND TEXAS GIFT WRAPPED.

Now we got nuthin"

[claver2010]

Sorry been busy the last couple of days but...

Given how the PWR is right now, barring a complete collapse I do not see how BC isn't placed in Worcester.

Here's Why:
1) Bemidji St will not have many opportunities to move up given their schedule, while we will face many TUCs going down the stretch
2) We hold a 2-0-1 record over Maine, being the next HE team. I don't see them ending the season too well as they have @BU x2, UML x2, @Mack x2 (Mack is 10-3-0 at home this year), UMass x2.
3) That leaves us as the only legitimate (top 5/6/7) in the PWR) in the East. Attendance is still a huge concern with the economy the way it is and BC to Worcester traditionally has drawn very, very well.
4) The bracket listed on USCHO isn't good at all for BC. Those "down but power teams" are dangerous, they have talent just haven't put it together yet.