6.71 Proablitlity for the Dance

[Art Vandelay]

StatJunkie now has us at 6.71% probability. (Harvard is 32.11%) Even the maroon colored glasses wearing crowd have to admit at this point that sounds about right. We'd need to win out with two on the road and win at least one and probably two in the ACCT. We have only won 5 straight once this season back in early December when we beat a stretch of pretty weak teams (with a decent win against Maryland in the middle). I don't like our chances.

Also our RPI is also down to 50, which sucks becuase we are on the verge of no longer being a quality win for Harvard.

[BCEagle74]

0.00% of winning the title.

[eepstein0]

StatJunkie now has us at 6.71% probability. (Harvard is 32.11%) Even the maroon colored glasses wearing crowd have to admit at this point that sounds about right. We'd need to win out with two on the road and win at least one and probably two in the ACCT. We have only won 5 straight once this season back in early December when we beat a stretch of pretty weak teams (with a decent win against Maryland in the middle). I don't like our chances.

Also our RPI is also down to 50, which sucks becuase we are on the verge of no longer being a quality win for Harvard.

StatJunkie is a stupid website the same way TWB hates Ken Pomeroy. Harvard is not making the NCAAs at an at-large, I don't care if they win every game the rest of the way. If we win out (including Tuesday's adventure to VT), then I'll happily engage in the NCAA Tournament discussion. Outside of that, we have to win the ACCT which is not happening under any circumstance. UVA is dreadful (a lot worse than Miami despite the record) and Wake is even more dreadful. VT will be coming off a 9:00 pm game with Gameday on campus against Duke. I'd just assume see them win that game, then not pay attention to BC. VT is in for a letdown that game, we just don't have the depth to capatalize.

[eepstein0]

dook is going to beat the everloving goiter outta vpi.

mark. it. down.

...just wanted to use the Hokie Icon....

[Art Vandelay]

StatJunkie now has us at 6.71% probability. (Harvard is 32.11%) Even the maroon colored glasses wearing crowd have to admit at this point that sounds about right. We'd need to win out with two on the road and win at least one and probably two in the ACCT. We have only won 5 straight once this season back in early December when we beat a stretch of pretty weak teams (with a decent win against Maryland in the middle). I don't like our chances.

Also our RPI is also down to 50, which sucks becuase we are on the verge of no longer being a quality win for Harvard.

StatJunkie is a stupid website the same way TWB hates Ken Pomeroy. Harvard is not making the NCAAs at an at-large, I don't care if they win every game the rest of the way. If we win out (including Tuesday's adventure to VT), then I'll happily engage in the NCAA Tournament discussion. Outside of that, we have to win the ACCT which is not happening under any circumstance. UVA is dreadful (a lot worse than Miami despite the record) and Wake is even more dreadful. VT will be coming off a 9:00 pm game with Gameday on campus against Duke. I'd just assume see them win that game, then not pay attention to BC. VT is in for a letdown that game, we just don't have the depth to capatalize.

We beat UVA by three at home so I would not call them a gimmie. Wake sucks something awful.

As for stat junkie, it is like RPI, Pomeroy and a number of other statistical models, interesting, but flawed. I don't think Harvard is getting in as an at large. I also don't think we are getting in so who is more or less likely is kind of a moot point when neither will make it.

[pick6pedro]

P.S. Harvard controls their own destiny for a tourney bid now.

[eepstein0]

StatJunkie now has us at 6.71% probability. (Harvard is 32.11%) Even the maroon colored glasses wearing crowd have to admit at this point that sounds about right. We'd need to win out with two on the road and win at least one and probably two in the ACCT. We have only won 5 straight once this season back in early December when we beat a stretch of pretty weak teams (with a decent win against Maryland in the middle). I don't like our chances.

Also our RPI is also down to 50, which sucks becuase we are on the verge of no longer being a quality win for Harvard.

StatJunkie is a stupid website the same way TWB hates Ken Pomeroy. Harvard is not making the NCAAs at an at-large, I don't care if they win every game the rest of the way. If we win out (including Tuesday's adventure to VT), then I'll happily engage in the NCAA Tournament discussion. Outside of that, we have to win the ACCT which is not happening under any circumstance. UVA is dreadful (a lot worse than Miami despite the record) and Wake is even more dreadful. VT will be coming off a 9:00 pm game with Gameday on campus against Duke. I'd just assume see them win that game, then not pay attention to BC. VT is in for a letdown that game, we just don't have the depth to capatalize.

We beat UVA by three at home so I would not call them a gimmie. Wake sucks something awful.

Mike Scott played that game...big difference.
As for stat junkie, it is like RPI, Pomeroy and a number of other statistical models, interesting, but flawed. I don't think Harvard is getting in as an at large. I also don't think we are getting in so who is more or less likely is kind of a moot point when neither will make it.

[BCEagles25]

Actually, Mike Scott did not play that game. Which is alarming.

[Art Vandelay]

StatJunkie now has us at 6.71% probability. (Harvard is 32.11%) Even the maroon colored glasses wearing crowd have to admit at this point that sounds about right. We'd need to win out with two on the road and win at least one and probably two in the ACCT. We have only won 5 straight once this season back in early December when we beat a stretch of pretty weak teams (with a decent win against Maryland in the middle). I don't like our chances.

Also our RPI is also down to 50, which sucks becuase we are on the verge of no longer being a quality win for Harvard.

StatJunkie is a stupid website the same way TWB hates Ken Pomeroy. Harvard is not making the NCAAs at an at-large, I don't care if they win every game the rest of the way. If we win out (including Tuesday's adventure to VT), then I'll happily engage in the NCAA Tournament discussion. Outside of that, we have to win the ACCT which is not happening under any circumstance. UVA is dreadful (a lot worse than Miami despite the record) and Wake is even more dreadful. VT will be coming off a 9:00 pm game with Gameday on campus against Duke. I'd just assume see them win that game, then not pay attention to BC. VT is in for a letdown that game, we just don't have the depth to capatalize.

We beat UVA by three at home so I would not call them a gimmie. Wake sucks something awful.

Mike Scott played that game...big difference.
As for stat junkie, it is like RPI, Pomeroy and a number of other statistical models, interesting, but flawed. I don't think Harvard is getting in as an at large. I also don't think we are getting in so who is more or less likely is kind of a moot point when neither will make it.

Don't let fact get in the way of your argument. Watch the game and/or check a box score. Mike Scott did not play so my argument stands.

[eepstein0]

StatJunkie now has us at 6.71% probability. (Harvard is 32.11%) Even the maroon colored glasses wearing crowd have to admit at this point that sounds about right. We'd need to win out with two on the road and win at least one and probably two in the ACCT. We have only won 5 straight once this season back in early December when we beat a stretch of pretty weak teams (with a decent win against Maryland in the middle). I don't like our chances.

Also our RPI is also down to 50, which sucks becuase we are on the verge of no longer being a quality win for Harvard.

StatJunkie is a stupid website the same way TWB hates Ken Pomeroy. Harvard is not making the NCAAs at an at-large, I don't care if they win every game the rest of the way. If we win out (including Tuesday's adventure to VT), then I'll happily engage in the NCAA Tournament discussion. Outside of that, we have to win the ACCT which is not happening under any circumstance. UVA is dreadful (a lot worse than Miami despite the record) and Wake is even more dreadful. VT will be coming off a 9:00 pm game with Gameday on campus against Duke. I'd just assume see them win that game, then not pay attention to BC. VT is in for a letdown that game, we just don't have the depth to capatalize.

We beat UVA by three at home so I would not call them a gimmie. Wake sucks something awful.

Mike Scott played that game...big difference.
As for stat junkie, it is like RPI, Pomeroy and a number of other statistical models, interesting, but flawed. I don't think Harvard is getting in as an at large. I also don't think we are getting in so who is more or less likely is kind of a moot point when neither will make it.

Don't let fact get in the way of your argument. Watch the game and/or check a box score. Mike Scott did not play so my argument stands.

Didn't realize that, I was almost sure he played. I'm a stand-up guy I'll admit I was wrong. UVA still has no talent but is well coached. We still win this game based on the fact that I'm in attendance. Can't help us on Tuesday though (Blacksburg is like 4.5 hours each way for me, sorry)

[eepstein0]

Updated from ESPN Bubble Watch:

Boston College [16-11 (6-7), RPI: 58, SOS: 17] The Eagles, like the teams below them in this space, are barely hanging on. That status comes thanks to Wednesday night's home loss to Miami, which is not a total killer -- the Hurricanes are hovering in the mid-60s range in the RPI, at least -- but is exactly the kind of loss a team with an already shaky at-large profile can hardly afford. The Eagles now have a sub-.500 conference record and spend their next two games traveling to Virginia and Virginia Tech before closing out the regular season versus Wake Forest. That creates a nonexistent margin for error. At this point, Reggie Jackson & Co. have to win all three of those games to get into the tournament.

[Art Vandelay]

Lunardi has moved us to the first 4 out.

[joemack13]

will statjunkie be able to tell whether we're in after the selection show?