BC: 79% Probable for the Dance

[Art Vandelay]

again - this team can beat anybody and lose to anybody

fixed

i honestly think that they CAN beat anybody... but it would take a hot night from behind the arc coupled with a cold night from the opponent. to claim that it is impossible for both to happen is even more pessimistic than the biggest chicken little on this board would commit to. that's right, i'm saying you hate bc sports more than me

Whoa, did HomoJS hijack your account?!

obviously not... i didn't say anything about spaz or gdf hating america and murdering puppies.

plus, i said bc could win

This team is more fun to watch than in past years, but I really do hate them just the same. Gaining any sort of consistency would really be appreciated.

i tried to tell you WEEKS ago to write off thoughts of the tournament and simply enjoy the wins and expect the losses. you needed WEEKS of yo-yo action until you came around to agreeing with me.

I was one of the few who was with you on this from the start.

As I recall I was accussed of not liking BC Basketball for it.

[twballgame9]

I've never discussed the tourney, but 20 wins is my measuring stick for the Don. Giving credit for A&M and VT on the road and demerit for Yale, Harvard, URI and Miami, he is -2 (the rest of the games all went the way they should or were close that no good or bad is recorded) with 6 games to go. He should only need to go 3-3; instead he needs to go 5-1.

Next time, dont' schedule games with the rough and tumble Ivies.

[Eagledom]

this is boring. BC was fucking terrible last year. They are average this year. Will probably take a step back next year or be close to the same. Unfortunately 2012-2013 is the first year any coach could get this team back to very good.

[Eagledom]

this is boring. BC was fucking terrible last year. They are average this year. Will probably take a step back next year or be close to the same. Unfortunately 2012-2013 is the first year any coach could get this team back to very good.

and reggie will be gone, so that excuse is already loaded in both barrels

interesting, since I didn't make that "excuse"

[eepstein0]

I'm not writing off the NCAA's yet (if we lose to Maryland I'll write it off). Only point I'm making is this team pisses me off because they're so all over the place.

[eepstein0]

I've never discussed the tourney, but 20 wins is my measuring stick for the Don. Giving credit for A&M and VT on the road and demerit for Yale, Harvard, URI and Miami, he is -2 (the rest of the games all went the way they should or were close that no good or bad is recorded) with 6 games to go. He should only need to go 3-3; instead he needs to go 5-1.

Next time, dont' schedule games with the rough and tumble Ivies.

I wouldn't necessarily call @ URI or @ Miami demerits. Yale and Harvard yes. Remember we played the entire URI game without Biko Paris. Miami isn't very good but they're not Wake bad or anything like that and it was on the road.

[AdamBC]

47% and on the bubble after the Clemson loss.

[Art Vandelay]

I've never discussed the tourney, but 20 wins is my measuring stick for the Don. Giving credit for A&M and VT on the road and demerit for Yale, Harvard, URI and Miami, he is -2 (the rest of the games all went the way they should or were close that no good or bad is recorded) with 6 games to go. He should only need to go 3-3; instead he needs to go 5-1.

Next time, dont' schedule games with the rough and tumble Ivies.

I wouldn't necessarily call @ URI or @ Miami demerits. Yale and Harvard yes. Remember we played the entire URI game without Biko Paris. Miami isn't very good but they're not Wake bad or anything like that and it was on the road.

I agree with you about Miami, but URI lost to freaking Quinipiac this year. That's as bad loss as Harvard.

[bcmurph]

47% and on the bubble after the Clemson loss.

I think that was before...

[eepstein0]

47% and on the bubble after the Clemson loss.

I think that was before...

I hate to make it so cut-and-dry but it basically shakes down like this. We'll beat Miami, Wake and win @ UVA. There's 8 wins for you. Figure out a way to win 2 of MD, @ VT and @ UNC and we can sit pretty comfortable. Win 1 and we're going to need something in the ACCT. Realistically if we lose to MD we're going to need a Sidney Lowe type ACCT run to get into the NCAA's. I suppose we could win @ VT and that'd do the job also.

[Art Vandelay]

47% and on the bubble after the Clemson loss.

I think that was before...

I hate to make it so cut-and-dry but it basically shakes down like this. We'll beat Miami, Wake and win @ UVA. There's 8 wins for you. Figure out a way to win 2 of MD, @ VT and @ UNC and we can sit pretty comfortable. Win 1 and we're going to need something in the ACCT. Realistically if we lose to MD we're going to need a Sidney Lowe type ACCT run to get into the NCAA's. I suppose we could win @ VT and that'd do the job also.

If we are hot from 3 we could win any of the remaining games, other than UNC who is going to absolutely smoke us again. We could also lose every one of the remaining games, other than Wake who suck something awful. @ UVA and Miami are not automatic wins by any means. We just sqeaked one out against UVA at Conte.

[2001Eagle]

Don't worry guys. Pat Forde says that we are "clutch."


How clutch is your team?


The Minutes watched games from noon to midnight Saturday and suspected something funny was going on -- a ton of them went down to the last minute.



After consultation with ESPN's exceptional Stats & Information crew, that suspicion proved correct: Saturday was the closest collection of games in at least two years. Of the 149 Division I games played, 72 of them were decided by six or fewer points (two possessions) or went into overtime -- a whopping 48 percent.



The second-most suspenseful day with 100 or more games in the past two seasons was Feb. 20, 2010, when 61 games (42 percent) were decided by six or fewer or in OT. Of the past 20 dates with 100 or more games, those are the only two with more than 40 percent close games.



What does it mean? It's a reflection of conference play, when the games always are more competitive than in November and December and the teams know each other intimately. But why was Saturday so much closer than other January and February days in 2010 and '11?



It could be a blip, an anomaly. Or it could be a reflection of increasing national parity, when the difference between, say, the nation's 10th-best team and the 100th-best team is a matter of a few possessions and home-court advantage. Or it could be a case of slower games with fewer possessions that naturally lend themselves to being close.



[+] EnlargeAP Photo/George Nikitin
Close games and overtime were the norm this weekend, including Arizona's triple-overtime win over Cal.

Or some combination of all the above.



"Competitive balance in close games, I believe, is a function of the players' talent and the ability of coaches to get the most out of that talent," ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla told The Minutes. "There are less impact newcomers this season than in recent years, so the reliance on talented, highly recruited players is negated by more experienced, less talented teams. This is nothing new, and it's why we've seen bracket-buster upsets in the NCAA tournament yearly."



Added ESPN analyst Dino Gaudio: "I think there is tremendous parity because of kids at the high-major schools departing early for the NBA and … the number of kids who transfer seeking more playing time has escalated."



If close games are going to become the increasing norm this season, The Minutes figured it's time to examine who has excelled at winning the close ones and who has not.



As part of that, The Minutes also has included Ken Pomeroy's Experience Ratings* for each team, under the premise that experienced teams should function better under duress than inexperienced teams. You'll see a mixed bag of data from that standpoint -- some supports the premise, some refutes it.



(* Pomeroy describes his experience formula as follows in an e-mail to The Minutes: "The experience rating is based on how much time each player is on the floor. Freshmen are assumed to have zero years experience and seniors are assumed to have three years experience. It's an average of all the lineups a coach uses during the season. More simply, it's just 'minutes-weighted' experience. So bench-warmers are not a factor in the calculation, while starters have a lot of impact.")



Whether experience is paramount or not, Gaudio and Fraschilla both believe coaching is a vital component to endgame success.



"In the same way that talent impacts games, coaching ability impacts the outcome of close games, as well," Fraschilla said. "Quantifying a coach's ability cannot be done in just wins and losses but, rather, if a coach is giving his team a chance to win those games."



Said Gaudio: "Coaches are judged by how their teams perform under two minutes. I really believe that."



The difficult part is deciding which coaches are just good enough to get an under-talented team into a close game, and which coaches let under-talented teams hang around. And how much comes down to bounces, breaks and maybe a single flick of the wrist.



"In a lot of those games, they really could have gone either way," said Florida coach Billy Donovan, whose team has played a ton of close games (12) and won most of them (nine), including a big one Saturday over Kentucky. "We could very, very easily have lost all those games. Our record would look totally different if we dropped all those games. You realize how fragile it all is."



[+] EnlargeKim Klement/US Presswire
Florida has won a number of close games, including Saturday's win over Kentucky.

It's a fragile season. These are the close-game results from the seven best leagues, through Sunday:



ACC


Best in the clutch: Boston College (12). Record: 7-2, .778 winning percentage. Overall winning percentage: 15-8, .652. Pomeroy Experience Rating: 32nd out of 345 teams.
North Carolina (13). Record: 6-2, .750 winning percentage. Overall winning percentage: 17-5, .773. Pomeroy Experience Rating: 311th.
Wake Forest (14). Record: 3-1, .750. Overall winning percentage: 8-15, .348. Pomeroy Experience Rating: 328th.
Worst in the clutch: Georgia Tech (15). Record: 0-5. Overall winning percentage: 10-12, .455. Pomeroy Experience Rating: 322nd.



The rest:
Duke: 2-1. Overall: 21-2. Experience: 211th.
NC State: 2-1. Overall: 12-11. Experience: 324th.
Florida State: 3-3. Overall: 16-7. Experience: 179th.
Miami: 5-6. Overall: 14-9. Experience: 262nd.
Virginia Tech: 3-4. Overall: 15-7. Experience: 34th.
Maryland: 2-3. Overall: 15-8. Experience: 180th.
Virginia: 3-5. Overall: 12-11. Experience: 278th.
Clemson: 1-5. Overall: 16-7. Experience: 85th.

[claver2010]

THe fact that he kept referring to his article throughout the article as "The Minutes" or some gay variation of that made it unreadable.

That being said, we have had some "clutch" in conference wins: @ MD, VTech, etc.

[eepstein0]

ESPN's latest stuff.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Lunardi already has us in that ugly play-in game on Tuesday.

Win or go home against Maryland tomorrow boys and girls.

[HJS]

For the first time I am realizing that the play-in games will involve the 4 worst auto-bids and 4 worst at-larges. I simply thought it was going to be the 8 worst seeded teams. That really kinda sucks.

[twballgame9]

For the first time I am realizing that the play-in games will involve the 4 worst auto-bids and 4 worst at-larges. I simply thought it was going to be the 8 worst seeded teams. That really kinda sucks.

I don't know, it would be a good chance to get a game in before facing a 5-6-7 seed.

[eepstein0]

For the first time I am realizing that the play-in games will involve the 4 worst auto-bids and 4 worst at-larges. I simply thought it was going to be the 8 worst seeded teams. That really kinda sucks.

I don't know, it would be a good chance to get a game in before facing a 5-6-7 seed.

Agreed. It'll be sort of interesting to watch. They should play the 2 worst auto bid games at 12:00 and 2:30 because no one cares about those and save the better games for at night.

[eepstein0]

For the first time I am realizing that the play-in games will involve the 4 worst auto-bids and 4 worst at-larges. I simply thought it was going to be the 8 worst seeded teams. That really kinda sucks.

We're continuing our plummet in Lundari's bracket (doesn't make a whole lot of sense when we split this week). Now a 12 in the play-in game versus Memphis feeding right into....John Cal and Kentucky. We'd get absolutely mutilated against Kentucky.

[branchinator]

For the first time I am realizing that the play-in games will involve the 4 worst auto-bids and 4 worst at-larges. I simply thought it was going to be the 8 worst seeded teams. That really kinda sucks.

We're continuing our plummet in Lundari's bracket (doesn't make a whole lot of sense when we split this week). Now a 12 in the play-in game versus Memphis feeding right into....John Cal and Kentucky. We'd get absolutely mutilated against Kentucky.

I'd love to have the chance to get mutilated by Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament.

[GodofBeasts94]

For the first time I am realizing that the play-in games will involve the 4 worst auto-bids and 4 worst at-larges. I simply thought it was going to be the 8 worst seeded teams. That really kinda sucks.

We're continuing our plummet in Lundari's bracket (doesn't make a whole lot of sense when we split this week). Now a 12 in the play-in game versus Memphis feeding right into....John Cal and Kentucky. We'd get absolutely mutilated against Kentucky.

I'd love to have the chance to get mutilated by Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament.

Agreed. Any tourney experience we get will be great (including a play-in game). Good experience for Reggie. Good experience for the freshmen. And a great and well deserved send-off for Josh, Biko and Joe. I hope they get the chance. If they don't, I hope they get a shot at an NIT run. Think about how low the expectations were....it's amazing we're having this conversation.....

[AdamBC]

Looks like its been updated to reflect the UNC game.

We're now 15.8% likely and are the first team out. Just above us and the last one in - Harvard.

http://statjunkie.org/

[pick6pedro]

Looks like its been updated to reflect the UNC game.

We're now 15.8% likely and are the first team out. Just above us and the last one in - Harvard.

http://statjunkie.org/

Is that seriously implying that Harvard would get an at-large bid right now?

[NotoriousOrange]

Right now BC and Harvard are back to back in the RPI - with BC at 43 and Harvard at 44.

If the RPI stays close (5 - 10 slots) and Princeton wins the Ivy, I can see Harvard getting in over BC. The head to head win will give the committee justification to make the Ivy a 2 bid conference. Which, I think they would have a predisposition to do.

[twballgame9]

that reflects only three acc teams making the tournament. down year or not, i can't see that happening...

maybe you 20 win weirdos are right

I've said 20 wins from the beginning, but I didn't expect 2 Ivy losses. They still have a shot, but it is a long one.

[eepstein0]

that reflects only three acc teams making the tournament. down year or not, i can't see that happening...

maybe you 20 win weirdos are right

I've said 20 wins from the beginning, but I didn't expect 2 Ivy losses. They still have a shot, but it is a long one.

Just take care of business (Miami, @ UVA, Wake) and win one in the ACCT and we'll be one of the last 4 teams in (20 wins). Win @ VT or 2 in the ACCT and we can probably dodge that play-in game stuff. I'll just go ahead and count UNC as a loss. Beat UNC and take care of business and we probably bump up to a 10 seed.

[eepstein0]

Right now BC and Harvard are back to back in the RPI - with BC at 43 and Harvard at 44.

If the RPI stays close (5 - 10 slots) and Princeton wins the Ivy, I can see Harvard getting in over BC. The head to head win will give the committee justification to make the Ivy a 2 bid conference. Which, I think they would have a predisposition to do.

I have a really hard time believing Harvard would get an at-large before BC, even if we lost to them this season.

[pick6pedro]

Right now BC and Harvard are back to back in the RPI - with BC at 43 and Harvard at 44.

If the RPI stays close (5 - 10 slots) and Princeton wins the Ivy, I can see Harvard getting in over BC. The head to head win will give the committee justification to make the Ivy a 2 bid conference. Which, I think they would have a predisposition to do.

I did notice that too, however one would think that by the time the tourney comes around the RPI will change significantly in BC's favor. I really can't imagine the Ivy league getting 2 bids.

[NotoriousOrange]

Right now BC and Harvard are back to back in the RPI - with BC at 43 and Harvard at 44.

If the RPI stays close (5 - 10 slots) and Princeton wins the Ivy, I can see Harvard getting in over BC. The head to head win will give the committee justification to make the Ivy a 2 bid conference. Which, I think they would have a predisposition to do.

I have a really hard time believing Harvard would get an at-large before BC, even if we lost to them this season.

If the RPI is close you don't think the committee would like to make the Ivy a two bid conference?

[NotoriousOrange]

Right now BC and Harvard are back to back in the RPI - with BC at 43 and Harvard at 44.

If the RPI stays close (5 - 10 slots) and Princeton wins the Ivy, I can see Harvard getting in over BC. The head to head win will give the committee justification to make the Ivy a 2 bid conference. Which, I think they would have a predisposition to do.

I did notice that too, however one would think that by the time the tourney comes around the RPI will change significantly in BC's favor. I really can't imagine the Ivy league getting 2 bids.

Pedro I was replying to Eepstein when you posted, but same question to you? If the RPI is close you don't think the committee would like to make the Ivy a two bid conference? Makes for novelty every once in a while, and allows the committe to say that a deserving outlier from a non Tier 1 conference can make it.

Dickie V would be all over the Ivy's Baby!

[twballgame9]

Right now BC and Harvard are back to back in the RPI - with BC at 43 and Harvard at 44.

If the RPI stays close (5 - 10 slots) and Princeton wins the Ivy, I can see Harvard getting in over BC. The head to head win will give the committee justification to make the Ivy a 2 bid conference. Which, I think they would have a predisposition to do.

I did notice that too, however one would think that by the time the tourney comes around the RPI will change significantly in BC's favor. I really can't imagine the Ivy league getting 2 bids.

Pedro I was replying to Eepstein when you posted, but same question to you? If the RPI is close you don't think the committee would like to make the Ivy a two bid conference? Makes for novelty every once in a while, and allows the committe to say that a deserving outlier from a non Tier 1 conference can make it.

Dickie V would be all over the Ivy's Baby!

No, I don't, and no, I don't think Harvard's RPI will stay that high. Your point is a valid one, but I don't think the NCAA cares that much about the Ivies. If this were the OVC or the WCC, then you might have something.