BC: 79% Probable for the Dance

[GodofBeasts94]

You guys familiar with StatJunkie at http://statjunkie.org/?

Apparently it uses a modelling system put together by a grad student at Iowa State University that has been refined/improved each year. In 2010 the model was 100% accurate in predicting the at-large bids. The year before it picked 33 out of 34 at-large bids. In the 2008 it picked 31 out of 34.

It lists probabilities for every team throughout the season. If the committee were deciding things as of the games played January 23rd --with BC at 14-6 with an RPI of 31 -- the model suggests a 79.52% probability that BC would make the tournament.

Will be interesting to see how that probability drops over the course of the next several weeks. Here's hoping we get the results that keep that from happening.

[DuchesneEast]

The Ivy losses will hurt us.

[bcmurph]

Bracketology also shows them in ATM (same 5 teams from the ACC)...They're gonna need to right the ship to stay there.

6-3 down the stretch with at least a split with UNC and VT should do it . Carolina still has both Duke and FSU twice left on their schedule...

[eepstein0]

Bracketology also shows them in ATM (same 5 teams from the ACC)...They're gonna need to right the ship to stay there.

6-3 down the stretch with at least a split with UNC and VT should do it . Carolina still has both Duke and FSU twice left on their schedule...

6-3 down the stretch puts you at 10 ACC wins...guaranteed in.

[bcmurph]

Bracketology also shows them in ATM (same 5 teams from the ACC)...They're gonna need to right the ship to stay there.

6-3 down the stretch with at least a split with UNC and VT should do it . Carolina still has both Duke and FSU twice left on their schedule...

6-3 down the stretch puts you at 10 ACC wins...guaranteed in.

That's what VT thought...And while our OOC schedule is far superior they also didn't have losses to Harvard, Yale and URI...Anyway, the point is, 9-7 leaves us 5-5 last 10, and if that includes getting swept by one of the teams we'll be competing with, we'll likely be in trouble..

.

[bluefishskip]

Virginia Tech had a strength of schedule last year at 133.
Boston College's SOS this year is 16.
Big Difference between the two obviously.
Virginia Tech's miss was similar to the year BC won their division in the Big East and went to the NIT. Just not enough legit wins during the season.

The Yale loss is the only bad loss this year (RPI 157). The bigger issue is not who BC is lost to, but who has BC actually beat? Nobody (besides Texas A&M.....and to a lesser extent CAL). That's it. 1 Top 50 win. And as of right now, the only team that is in the Top 50 RPI the rest of the season is UNC, who BC plays twice.

[BCEagles25]

Bracketology also shows them in ATM (same 5 teams from the ACC)...They're gonna need to right the ship to stay there.

6-3 down the stretch with at least a split with UNC and VT should do it . Carolina still has both Duke and FSU twice left on their schedule...

6-3 down the stretch puts you at 10 ACC wins...guaranteed.

Fixed

[eepstein0]

Bracketology also shows them in ATM (same 5 teams from the ACC)...They're gonna need to right the ship to stay there.

6-3 down the stretch with at least a split with UNC and VT should do it . Carolina still has both Duke and FSU twice left on their schedule...

6-3 down the stretch puts you at 10 ACC wins...guaranteed in.

That's what VT thought...And while our OOC schedule is far superior they also didn't have losses to Harvard, Yale and URI...Anyway, the point is, 9-7 leaves us 5-5 last 10, and if that includes getting swept by one of the teams we'll be competing with, we'll likely be in trouble..

.

VT's SOS was awful.

[2001Eagle]

Take this post for what it's worth, because I've been drinking a nice cabernet blend for the last several hours, but I think this UNC game is huge. This stretch of January and February is analogous to the dog days of the baseball schedule in August and playoff teams start gearing up now. BC has looked like straight-up dog shit in the last two games. Now, they were against the top two teams in the ACC (at the time, Clemson and St. John's say hello), but is that a legit excuse or is this BC team withering away?

My take - win this UNC game and the ball starts rolling towards 9-7 in the ACC and a fighting chance for the NCAA tourney. Lose and we roll towards 6-10 and a March filled with bitter memories of UW-Milwaukee.

[EagleDave]

That's awfully high considering they haven't beaten anyone worth anything in a month. They need to get it together starting tonight and put 1 or 2 more quality wins on the resume.

[HJS]

The way this team is playing, I find it hard to believe that they have 6 more wins coming.

[GodofBeasts94]

Take this post for what it's worth, because I've been drinking a nice cabernet blend for the last several hours, but I think this UNC game is huge. This stretch of January and February is analogous to the dog days of the baseball schedule in August and playoff teams start gearing up now. BC has looked like straight-up dog shit in the last two games. Now, they were against the top two teams in the ACC (at the time, Clemson and St. John's say hello), but is that a legit excuse or is this BC team withering away?

My take - win this UNC game and the ball starts rolling towards 9-7 in the ACC and a fighting chance for the NCAA tourney. Lose and we roll towards 6-10 and a March filled with bitter memories of UW-Milwaukee.

This sounds about right to me -- although I'll leave the door open ajar to lose to UNC and beat VT Saturday, using the latter as a spring board to regain momentum.

Fingers crossed for tonight. Give me 36 minutes of Reggie. Give me some defense. Give me some egregiously favorable calls from the referee. Give me more than a 200 students and a sprinkling of the rest of us.....

[2001Eagle]

The way this team is playing, I find it hard to believe that they have 6 more wins coming.

Total agreement. That's why I'm hoping they show a huge change from the last 2-3 shit shows or else I'm afraid it's gonna be a long and shitty february.

[branchinator]

More like 79% probable for the NIT. This team lost it's mojo.

[HJS]

Since Miami, this team has been as bad (if not worse) than last year. Based on not starting of Reggie and us being "treated" to heavy doses of Rubin, Moten and Kozlowsi... I am fearing that he has lost those on scholarship.

On an aside... our perimeter defense is very possibly worse this year. No way to say "oh well, our opponent simply had a once in a lifetime game from 3" five different times during a season without realizing that "hey... maybe we have something to do with these career nights."

[twballgame9]

Since Miami, this team has been as bad (if not worse) than last year. Based on not starting of Reggie and us being "treated" to heavy doses of Rubin, Moten and Kozlowsi... I am fearing that he has lost those on scholarship.

On an aside... our perimeter defense is very possibly worse this year. No way to say "oh well, our opponent simply had a once in a lifetime game from 3" five different times during a season without realizing that "hey... maybe we have something to do with these career nights."

That's all Al's fault. It just took 16 games for them to go back to being worse than last year.

[angryty]

This team was playing way above its talent level when you consider how thin the team is a result of losing some bad citizens from last year's team and what a disgraceful job Lazy Elvis did with recruiting the last couple of years (HJS' jungle fever for Al notwithstanding). This plunge is nothing more than the team returning to its natural level.

It sucks, but the fact is given what was left in the cupboard Stevie D has done an admirable job.

[twballgame9]

Wow, never thought I would hear the "cupboard bare" excuse from Ty.

I have zero problem with it, but the the cupboard is bare because two of the most talented players on the team transferred. The Don didn't care, nor should he, because he can use the schollies to get his guys. But using it as an excuse is lame, and reminds me of the excuses to support the football staff.

[GreenvilleEagle]

Wow, never thought I would hear the "cupboard bare" excuse from Ty.

I have zero problem with it, but the the cupboard is bare because two of the most talented players on the team transferred. The Don didn't care, nor should he, because he can use the schollies to get his guys. But using it as an excuse is lame, and reminds me of the excuses to support the football staff.

Please stop giving props to your BFF Rakim. He wouldn't have made a difference except for setting the record of eating cheeseburger subs.

[twballgame9]

Wow, never thought I would hear the "cupboard bare" excuse from Ty.

I have zero problem with it, but the the cupboard is bare because two of the most talented players on the team transferred. The Don didn't care, nor should he, because he can use the schollies to get his guys. But using it as an excuse is lame, and reminds me of the excuses to support the football staff.

Please stop giving props to your BFF Rakim. He wouldn't have made a difference except for setting the record of eating cheeseburger subs.

It's another 1000 point scorer. And he did that despite eating all of those cheeseburgers. Imagine if he had a coach that was better than Al?

Instead, we have Gabe Moton on that scholarship.

[BC923]

This team is probably not going to the tourney, preseason i didn't expect it to, but during some stretches in this season i thought they would. It sucks but it's what i thought would happen. I think of next years team as having the same record but playing a lot better and from there i think the improvement will come.

Where has Reggie gone?

[HJS]

For the record, I liked Al. That said, he was struggling without Coen and Cooley. I have no problem moving on. I also liked the D hire (by far the best candidate truly interviewed).

All that said, it doesn't change that we are playing a flat-out horrible brand of basketball. Further, benching Reggie and playing walk-ons as much as scholarship players ain't helping. I have never had a problem calling them as I see them.

As to Ty's point, I ain't satisfied that they are "returning back to Earth." The reason for the coaching change was to bring in a guy who could coach these kids up and win in spite of the talent gap. The fact that he has these kids returning to Skinner's level means he is failing. BTW, UNC ain't world beaters by any stretch. SJU was dog shit last year and they ass-raped Duke this weekend. Miami (another team we lost to in this stretch) is in last place with 6 conference losses (ours being their only win). We have enough talent not to be playing this bad (not to mention the beatdowns we took at the hands of legendary hoops programs Harvard and Yale).

[bcmurph]

It sucks, but the fact is given what was left in the cupboard Stevie D has done an admirable job

I'm not gonna hang Stevie D, But this team has regressed in-season, and IMO he's lost the Reggie he had such high praise for "buying in" early in the season. The "We're tyring to build a program" quote when Reggie didn't start, might just as well have been "fuck this year"...

[twballgame9]

For the record, I liked Al. That said, he was struggling without Coen and Cooley. I have no problem moving on. I also liked the D hire (by far the best candidate truly interviewed).

All that said, it doesn't change that we are playing a flat-out horrible brand of basketball. Further, benching Reggie and playing walk-ons as much as scholarship players ain't helping. I have never had a problem calling them as I see them.

As to Ty's point, I ain't satisfied that they are "returning back to Earth." The reason for the coaching change was to bring in a guy who could coach these kids up and win in spite of the talent gap. The fact that he has these kids returning to Skinner's level means he is failing. BTW, UNC ain't world beaters by any stretch. SJU was dog shit last year and they ass-raped Duke this weekend. Miami (another team we lost to in this stretch) is in last place with 6 conference losses (ours being their only win). We have enough talent not to be playing this bad (not to mention the beatdowns we took at the hands of legendary hoops programs Harvard and Yale).

This. And what murph said. Call a spade a spade - we all like the Don and will give him time, but this stretch is a miserable failure.

[BC923]

For the record, I liked Al. That said, he was struggling without Coen and Cooley. I have no problem moving on. I also liked the D hire (by far the best candidate truly interviewed).

All that said, it doesn't change that we are playing a flat-out horrible brand of basketball. Further, benching Reggie and playing walk-ons as much as scholarship players ain't helping. I have never had a problem calling them as I see them.

As to Ty's point, I ain't satisfied that they are "returning back to Earth." The reason for the coaching change was to bring in a guy who could coach these kids up and win in spite of the talent gap. The fact that he has these kids returning to Skinner's level means he is failing. BTW, UNC ain't world beaters by any stretch. SJU was dog shit last year and they ass-raped Duke this weekend. Miami (another team we lost to in this stretch) is in last place with 6 conference losses (ours being their only win). We have enough talent not to be playing this bad (not to mention the beatdowns we took at the hands of legendary hoops programs Harvard and Yale).

This. And what murph said. Call a spade a spade - we all like the Don and will give him time, but this stretch is a miserable failure.

exactly, because he showed us what this team could do, and then went backwards from there. To be honest I expected a lot of this preseason, but once i saw this team after the tournament i thought that we would do well in the ACC. That is where the real dissappointment is.

[eepstein0]

Just left Conte. Can someone explain what happened to this team? It has nothing to do with inconsistent...that was just plain embaassing. Trapani gets an A for tonight

[angryty]

I don't know that he has lost the schollie players--maybe, not a lot of solid citizens in that group if the previous two years is any indication. And I am not excusing the Don, I am merely pointing out when you have a limited amount of talent on the roster it tends to wear down this time of year and you get what you are seeing from this current iteration. Also, I hardly see it as being the Don's fault that some bad kids decided to leave the program when they were faced with playing for a coach who belives in such novel concepts as hard work and accountability. It sucks and if it doesn't get better next year I'll be livid, but I'm not going to shit all over a guy who, at his best, was more successful at Cornell than Al was at BC at his best.

Rakim will be an utter failure at Fairfield. He is the sort of low character kid that dies when he ends up in the MAAC. They have seen his kind at Iona and Niagara a half dozen times and it never ends well. His picture should be next to the dictionary definition of a loser.

[BCEagle74]

I don't know that he has lost the schollie players--maybe, not a lot of solid citizens in that group if the previous two years is any indication. And I am not excusing the Don, I am merely pointing out when you have a limited amount of talent on the roster it tends to wear down this time of year and you get what you are seeing from this current iteration. Also, I hardly see it as being the Don's fault that some bad kids decided to leave the program when they were faced with playing for a coach who belives in such novel concepts as hard work and accountability. It sucks and if it doesn't get better next year I'll be livid, but I'm not going to shit all over a guy who, at his best, was more successful at Cornell than Al was at BC at his best.

Rakim will be an utter failure at Fairfield. He is the sort of low character kid that dies when he ends up in the MAAC. They have seen his kind at Iona and Niagara a half dozen times and it never ends well. His picture should be next to the dictionary definition of a loser.

Change is coming quickly next year.

Change will be complete in 2 years.

No. Last Name Name eligibility Class Position Height Ht. Wt. High School Hometown
**************************************************************************************************
12 LEAVERS IN 2 SEASONS....
**************************************************************************************************
-10 jackson reggie Reggie Jackson 5 JR Guard 75 6-3 208 Palmer Colorado Springs, CO
4 moton gabriel Gabriel Moton 1 FR Guard 74 6-2 170 St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, FL
15 humphrey matt Matt Humphrey 5 JR Guard 77 6-5 185 Hales Franciscan Chicago, IL
25 rehnquist peter Peter Rehnquist 5 JR Guard/Forward 76 6-4 210 Deerfield Academy Sharon, MA
30 elmore dallas Dallas Elmore 5 JR Guard 77 6-5 210 Poudre Fort Collins, CO
31 rubin danny Danny Rubin 1 FR Guard 78 6-6 170 Landon School Chevy Chase, MD
**************************************************************************************************
8 LEAVERS

********************
52 southern josh Josh Southern 7 SR Center 82 6-10 263 Saginaw Saginaw, MI
55 dunn cortney Cortney Dunn 7 SR Forward 80 6-8 238 Lake Highlands Dallas, TX
5 paris biko Biko Paris 7 SR Guard 73 6-1 194 Cypress Christian (TX) New Orleans, LA
11 raji corey Corey Raji 7 SR Forward 78 6-6 218 Westwood Washington Twnshp, NJ
12 trapani joe Joe Trapani 7 SR Forward 80 6-8 232 Daniel Hand Madison, CT
14 mosakowski nick Nick Mosakowski 7 SR Guard 73 6-1 187 Pingree School Swampscott, MA
20 cahill john John Cahill 7 SR Guard 73 6-1 170 Christian Brothers Acad. Albany, NY
24 kowalski chris Chris Kowalski 7 SR Forward 78 6-6 240 Roxbury Latin Dorchester, Mass.

[twballgame9]

I don't know that he has lost the schollie players--maybe, not a lot of solid citizens in that group if the previous two years is any indication. And I am not excusing the Don, I am merely pointing out when you have a limited amount of talent on the roster it tends to wear down this time of year and you get what you are seeing from this current iteration. Also, I hardly see it as being the Don's fault that some bad kids decided to leave the program when they were faced with playing for a coach who belives in such novel concepts as hard work and accountability. It sucks and if it doesn't get better next year I'll be livid, but I'm not going to shit all over a guy who, at his best, was more successful at Cornell than Al was at BC at his best.

Rakim will be an utter failure at Fairfield. He is the sort of low character kid that dies when he ends up in the MAAC. They have seen his kind at Iona and Niagara a half dozen times and it never ends well. His picture should be next to the dictionary definition of a loser.

We already know what Rakim will do at Fairfield. He'll go for 13 ppg, 5 boards, and 2 assists per game, and play great defense every once in a while when he feels like it. He is a lazy POS and a waste of some killer basketball talent, but this current BC team could use even that. Badly.

Look, I have no problem with the Don running off the chaff. He gets time to get his guys in the program. But make no mistake, if the Don had even a pain in the ass Ravenel and Sanders, this is a MUCH better basketball team. Which, I suppose, makes Al look even worse for the job he did last season. But it should not allow for the "cupboard bare" excuse.

[pick6pedro]

If the Don had lost the schollie players, I would have seen a complete lack of effort early in the 2nd half. I didn't see that. These kids are trying.