Art Vandelay {l Wrote}:GodofBeasts94 {l Wrote}:Art Vandelay {l Wrote}:GodofBeasts94 {l Wrote}:TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:two questions -
(1) did anyone see peas and carrot there? i didn't but i was in and out of the game after the blowout started. did they have the stomach flu?
(b) are the half-fullers still predicting 20 wins and 10-6 in the acc with an invite to the ncaa tournament? any of them still interested enough to place a wager on it?[/q]
I'm not a wagering man but I'm certainly not tossing in the towel on 20 wins and a POSSIBLE berth in the tourney. I see 9 conference wins as very doable:
Win EITHER UNC or VT at home (5-4);
Lose to Clemson on the road (5-5);
Win over MD at home (6-5);
Lose to UNC on the road (6-6);
Beat Miami at home (7-6);
Win EITHER Virginia or VT on the road (8-7);
Beat Wake at home (9-7)
Then we win one in the tournament and we're 20-12. Losses to Yale and Harvard obviously work against us. But if we finish 4th or 5th in the ACC with a winning conference record -- even in a diminished year for the conference -- we'd have a decent shot.
What you are saying above is not unreasonable, but with the ACC what it is this year I don't know that 20 wins overall and 9-7 gets us in. When you factor in bad losses to Harvard, Yale and URI and only one truly good win over A&M I don't see that gettng us there.
I think it helps that we will have SIGNIFICANTLY over-achieved and we will have done so with Steve Donahue at the helm -- one of last year's darling stories. Picked to finish 10th, with a new system being implemented, with two walk-ons getting regular playing time, transformed from the most boring offensive team in America to one of the more efficient offenses, with a marquis player in Reggie Jackson....there will be people on the committee arguing that we should make it despite our 0-2 record against the Ivies. More, if we finish in the top 5, Donahue may well be ACC Coach of the Year -- I guess that probably won't be announced in time for the selection committee....but his accomplishment (and the team's) will be noted.
It would be different if we were underachieving; then I might agree with you that 9-7 isn't good enough......
You really think the committee takes into account the fact that it's a first year coach and we expected to suck more?
Absolutely -- and we don't suck at all if we're 9-7 in the ACC with a 20-12 record. Every year the committee ends up with a bunch of teams on the bubble for the last 8-10 at large spots. And the conversations go like this:
Committee Member 1: Let's talk about the bubble teams. Start with BC.
Committee Member 2: Do we have to -- they lost to Yale and Harvard after all?
Committee Member 3: Yeah but that was early in the season with a new coach implementing a completely new system.
Committee Member 4: (who is an ACC advocate): That's true, and they DID finish 5th in the ACC when they were picked to finish 10th.
Committee Member 5 (who is a Big 12 advocate): NC State on the other hand was picked to finish 4th and barely scratched their way to 6th -- I think we can take THEM off the bubble right now --is everybody agreed?
Committee Member 6: (who is a network advocate and looks for good stories): Let's not forget what Donahue did with Cornell last year. He was a tournament darling. Like the Big Red, this team has over-achieved; I wouldn't be surprised to see Steve upset somebody and that would make for good TV.
Committee Member 7: (who is arrogant about the tournament brand and went to Duke 40 years ago): If Al were still coaching I would say "Hell no" 'cause I just couldn't stand to see that offense, but this team actually plays attractive basketball.
Committee Member 2: All right, you guys have won me over. BC's in; the WolfPack is out. Who is next?
There are tradeoffs in the end. They look for key wins, key losses, conference record, stronger performance at the end of the season than at the beginning; and a host of other things including strength of schedule. With a current RPI of 29 and a SOS of 16, we are not the turkey you're suggesting we are if we get to 9-7 with a ACC tournament win.
