First Bracketology is out!

[Art Vandelay]

I'm not really sure how we are in and NC State is out right now. We have basically the same record. We have one good win over A&M offset by three bad losses to Harvard, Yale and URI. They have no really good wins but also no bad losses with 2 of their 4 losses to ranked teams in Cuse and GTown. We both lost to Wisconsin. It will get settled tonight but it seems odd to me. If anything we should both be in or both be out.

you are forgetting that their loss to wisconsin is bad. they lost by 40+

Ummm....we lost to Wisonsin too. I was kind of calling that a wash, but I guess you are giving us credit for only losing by 10. Not sure I buy that.

3 letters for you, RPI. NCST is 106 in the RPI, we're 40. NCST's OOC schedule has been awful playing teams 250 and below in the RPI which kills them. Our scheduling helps us a lot.

This is reason number 150 why bracketology is stupid when you have barely started conference play. Harvard has an RPI of 52 right now. You think that is going to hold up once they start playing nothing but Ivy league teams? Right now a loss to NC State tonight would be a bad loss and our loss to Harvard would be a "good loss." Any reasonable person would know that is not logical. I think RPI is a decent tool, but at this point in the year it makes no sense.

Although you have a point, it is what it is. Losing to NCST, no matter how talented, is a bad loss at home. If you want to get to the ultimate goal (NCAA Tournament) losing to NCST cannot happen in Conte.

My point is Harvard is a worse loss than NCST, but based on current RPI that is not the case, which to me invalidates anything based on RPI right now. I don't think we are ultimately going to have the resume to make the tourney anyway because I expect the up and down nature of this season to continue, but at this moment NCST has as good a resume as we do.

[bignick33]

i see there are still a handful of soon-to-be-unhappy people that think this team has any chance at all of sniffing the ncaa tournament. i hope none of your wives/grilfriends have emotional problems because it will be doomsday for your walls

I don't see how you can say this team isn't going to make the Tournament. Have you seen the rest of the ACC? The Don is going to squeak this team in as a 11/12 seed.

i don't see how you can say this when we would be 0-2 in the ivy league right now. sure, most of the acc teams are not as strong as they have been historically however; neither is our team. see, football season - 2010

or are you suggesting that the acc is only getting 4 teams in but the ivy should get 5?

Don't forget the fact that is at the helm and would never lose to Harvard.

[eepstein0]

i see there are still a handful of soon-to-be-unhappy people that think this team has any chance at all of sniffing the ncaa tournament. i hope none of your wives/grilfriends have emotional problems because it will be doomsday for your walls

I don't see how you can say this team isn't going to make the Tournament. Have you seen the rest of the ACC? The Don is going to squeak this team in as a 11/12 seed.

i don't see how you can say this when we would be 0-2 in the ivy league right now. sure, most of the acc teams are not as strong as they have been historically however; neither is our team. see, football season - 2010

or are you suggesting that the acc is only getting 4 teams in but the ivy should get 5?

This could be the worse argument I've ever heard. Transitive property does not apply here. Because we lost to Harvard and Yale, we'd go 0 fer in the Ivy League? Ridiculous. Two bad losses don't define a season. Do you really think we're that much worse than our next two opponents NCST and Miami? I certainly know we're coached better. The ACC will get Duke, UNC, FSU and BC. Possibly VT. The Ivy League will get Harvard in.

[Art Vandelay]

i see there are still a handful of soon-to-be-unhappy people that think this team has any chance at all of sniffing the ncaa tournament. i hope none of your wives/grilfriends have emotional problems because it will be doomsday for your walls

I don't see how you can say this team isn't going to make the Tournament. Have you seen the rest of the ACC? The Don is going to squeak this team in as a 11/12 seed.

i don't see how you can say this when we would be 0-2 in the ivy league right now. sure, most of the acc teams are not as strong as they have been historically however; neither is our team. see, football season - 2010

or are you suggesting that the acc is only getting 4 teams in but the ivy should get 5?

This could be the worse argument I've ever heard. Transitive property does not apply here. Because we lost to Harvard and Yale, we'd go 0 fer in the Ivy League? Ridiculous. Two bad losses don't define a season. Do you really think we're that much worse than our next two opponents NCST and Miami? I certainly know we're coached better. The ACC will get Duke, UNC, FSU and BC. Possibly VT. The Ivy League will get Harvard in.

and you say that based on "faith" rather than the product on the floor. its been said many times that this team of ragtag misfits can beat anyone (although i don't agree they can beat dooK) but could also lose to anyone. its not like the acc is chock full of one-armed midgets in wheelchairs so to assume that the coin flip will always result in bc's favor is a little more "half full" than i'm willing to accept.

but hey, to each his own. i used to have blind faith in bc football/basketball as well. the maroon and gold glasses were abundant here on tobaccoroad. since then i've seen some shit that makes me approach with more caution and realize that not everyone in our path is going to lay down because i think our team is better.

my point about the ivies was that we've proven that we can lose to bad teams... and we can do so more than once. good for you if you think it'll never happen again this year. mistaken, but good for you

ps - do you really think we're that much better than our next two opponents ncsu and miami? take coaching out of it and they out ability us at just about every phase of the game. now apply that to the ivy league losses... if good coaching can't prevent bad losses then couldn't it possibly also be true that bad coaching doesn't prevent close wins?

Exactly. Just as we can beat most teams in the ACC, we can just as easily lose to anyone in the ACC. The ACC having a down year keeps being mentioned as the reason we are going to make the tourney, but even these "bad" ACC teams are better than harvard and yale (except maybe Wake becuase they really suck).

[eepstein0]

This isn't looking at this through maroon and gold glasses. This team is well coached. They have one of the most efficient offenses in the ACC. They shoot the ball extremely well. They also have rebounded competitively with much bigger and more athletically talented teams recently.

The defense is a huge problem and I totally agree with that. Although true, I'm fully confident in this team's ability to beat NCST at home and go on the road and beat Miami. We're not beating Duke though under any circumstance.

In past year's, I'd totally agree with your pessimism. With this new attitude around the program, this is a good team and I'm sticking by it!

[cvilleagle]

This isn't looking at this through maroon and gold glasses. This team is well coached. They have one of the most efficient offenses in the ACC. They shoot the ball extremely well. They also have rebounded competitively with much bigger and more athletically talented teams recently.

The defense is a huge problem and I totally agree with that. Although true, I'm fully confident in this team's ability to beat NCST at home and go on the road and beat Miami. We're not beating Duke though under any circumstance.

In past year's, I'd totally agree with your pessimism. With this new attitude around the program, this is a good team and I'm sticking by it!

My fear about this team is that the way I see it, we're just not going to get off "the bubble". We may be very close to making the tournament, but there will be other teams with similar resumes to which we will be compared. Most of those teams won't have losses to two! Ivy league schools, which seems like a big problem. It will be easy for the tournament committee to dismiss us if they're looking to make a cut. If we do well enough in the ACC schedule not to be one of the last teams in, that's a different story, but we're not winning too many beauty pageants.

A win over Duke would change all this, and a win over UNC would help a lot.

[eepstein0]

i'll address only your point about defenses.

this defense is the bc football offense of college basketball. this defense allowed harvard and yale to score at will. that's the great equalizer for bad (opponent) coaching. when you field a bunch of selfish stars (see state, nc) they excel against bad defenses by going back to their one-on-one skills and abilities IRREGARDLESS of coaching.

unless the 3's fall for our offense at a 35%+ rate, our defense will keep us in a lot of ballgames. also, our ft% has started to wane again (that damn skinner must be coaching that portion of practice)

We're going to keep shooting 35% and above from the 3 point line. If there's a particular game where we shoot like crap I agree we're going to lose. This should be a good FT shooting team, so I'm not sure what the problem has been there of late. I'm just looking forward to Donahue coaching circles tonight around Sidney Lowe.

[eepstein0]

This isn't looking at this through maroon and gold glasses. This team is well coached. They have one of the most efficient offenses in the ACC. They shoot the ball extremely well. They also have rebounded competitively with much bigger and more athletically talented teams recently.

The defense is a huge problem and I totally agree with that. Although true, I'm fully confident in this team's ability to beat NCST at home and go on the road and beat Miami. We're not beating Duke though under any circumstance.

In past year's, I'd totally agree with your pessimism. With this new attitude around the program, this is a good team and I'm sticking by it!

My fear about this team is that the way I see it, we're just not going to get off "the bubble". We may be very close to making the tournament, but there will be other teams with similar resumes to which we will be compared. Most of those teams won't have losses to two! Ivy league schools, which seems like a big problem. It will be easy for the tournament committee to dismiss us if they're looking to make a cut. If we do well enough in the ACC schedule not to be one of the last teams in, that's a different story, but we're not winning too many beauty pageants.

A win over Duke would change all this, and a win over UNC would help a lot.

A split with UNC is a possibility. We're not being Duke. The awful stretch of games is going to be @ FSU, @ Duke, UNC ....that could be an 0 for 3 stretch there though we could get FSU or UNC.

[Art Vandelay]

i'll address only your point about defenses.

this defense is the bc football offense of college basketball. this defense allowed harvard and yale to score at will. that's the great equalizer for bad (opponent) coaching. when you field a bunch of selfish stars (see state, nc) they excel against bad defenses by going back to their one-on-one skills and abilities IRREGARDLESS of coaching.

unless the 3's fall for our offense at a 35%+ rate, our defense will keep us in a lot of ballgames. also, our ft% has started to wane again (that damn skinner must be coaching that portion of practice)

We're going to keep shooting 35% and above from the 3 point line. If there's a particular game where we shoot like crap I agree we're going to lose. This should be a good FT shooting team, so I'm not sure what the problem has been there of late. I'm just looking forward to Donahue coaching circles tonight around Sidney Lowe.

Reggie is shooting a ridiculous 48% from 3 to keep the team average up. No way he keeps that up all season especially as we get into conference play. His shooting has improved but he was 29% last year. He'll be better than that but not 48%. Raji and Biko are way above their career averages as well and while it is clear they have worked on their shooting I don't know that you can expect it to stay that high. Relying on the 3 is going to make for exactly what I expect....a lack of consistency.

[eepstein0]

Ever consider that Donahue is actually encouraging these guys to practice their shots and have become improved shooters? Shooting this well for 2 or 3 months isn't an aberration, it's a trend.

[Art Vandelay]

Ever consider that Donahue is actually encouraging these guys to practice their shots and have become improved shooters? Shooting this well for 2 or 3 months isn't an aberration, it's a trend.

I acknowledged that the shooting has clearly improved, but Reggie Jackson did not turn into Reggie Miller over the summer. The numbers will come down some.

[eepstein0]

Ever consider that Donahue is actually encouraging these guys to practice their shots and have become improved shooters? Shooting this well for 2 or 3 months isn't an aberration, it's a trend.

I acknowledged that the shooting has clearly improved, but Reggie Jackson did not turn into Reggie Miller over the summer. The numbers will come down some.

You're also leaving how Rubin, who is completely useless defensively but is a terrific shooter. I'll also argue that Trapani's shooting will continue to get better than it was at the beginning of the season.

[pick6pedro]

Ever consider that Donahue is actually encouraging these guys to practice their shots and have become improved shooters? Shooting this well for 2 or 3 months isn't an aberration, it's a trend.

Pull out the JUG machine!

[Art Vandelay]

Ever consider that Donahue is actually encouraging these guys to practice their shots and have become improved shooters? Shooting this well for 2 or 3 months isn't an aberration, it's a trend.

I acknowledged that the shooting has clearly improved, but Reggie Jackson did not turn into Reggie Miller over the summer. The numbers will come down some.

You're also leaving how Rubin, who is completely useless defensively but is a terrific shooter. I'll also argue that Trapani's shooting will continue to get better than it was at the beginning of the season.

Trapani is currently pretty close to his average the past two years so no reason to think it is going to chnage dramatically one way or the other, which is why I didn't mention him. Rubin's shooting has been great, but its safe to say he won't stay at 48% for the year, but even if it does my point is the same. The team's overall percentage is likely to go down. Your not even glass is half full....you are glass is overflowing.

[apbc12]

Ever consider that Donahue is actually encouraging these guys to practice their shots and have become improved shooters? Shooting this well for 2 or 3 months isn't an aberration, it's a trend.

Pull out the JUG machine!

[twballgame9]

BC is going to win 20 or 21 games. They will be on the bubble. The last-place Ivy League finish will be the death knell, unless they get to 22 or 23, make a run in the ACC tourney, or beat Duke to offset the WTF losses. Only thing making them look good right now is a win over TA&M (and to a lesser extent, a better than you know MD team on the road) team that will lose 5-6 times minimum in conference (and get anhilated by Kansas twice).

[Eagledom]

i see there are still a handful of soon-to-be-unhappy people that think this team has any chance at all of sniffing the ncaa tournament. i hope none of your wives/grilfriends have emotional problems because it will be doomsday for your walls

I don't see how you can say this team isn't going to make the Tournament. Have you seen the rest of the ACC? The Don is going to squeak this team in as a 11/12 seed.

i don't see how you can say this when we would be 0-2 in the ivy league right now. sure, most of the acc teams are not as strong as they have been historically however; neither is our team. see, football season - 2010

or are you suggesting that the acc is only getting 4 teams in but the ivy should get 5?

This could be the worse argument I've ever heard. Transitive property does not apply here. Because we lost to Harvard and Yale, we'd go 0 fer in the Ivy League? Ridiculous. Two bad losses don't define a season. Do you really think we're that much worse than our next two opponents NCST and Miami? I certainly know we're coached better. The ACC will get Duke, UNC, FSU and BC. Possibly VT. The Ivy League will get Harvard in.

and you say that based on "faith" rather than the product on the floor. its been said many times that this team of ragtag misfits can beat anyone (although i don't agree they can beat dooK) but could also lose to anyone. its not like the acc is chock full of one-armed midgets in wheelchairs so to assume that the coin flip will always result in bc's favor is a little more "half full" than i'm willing to accept.

but hey, to each his own. i used to have blind faith in bc football/basketball as well. the maroon and gold glasses were abundant here on tobaccoroad. since then i've seen some shit that makes me approach with more caution and realize that not everyone in our path is going to lay down because i think our team is better.

my point about the ivies was that we've proven that we can lose to bad teams... and we can do so more than once. good for you if you think it'll never happen again this year. mistaken, but good for you

ps - do you really think we're that much better than our next two opponents ncsu and miami? take coaching out of it and they out ability us at just about every phase of the game. now apply that to the ivy league losses... if good coaching can't prevent bad losses then couldn't it possibly also be true that bad coaching doesn't prevent close wins?

so you think the NCAA tournament is out of the question?

[DavidGordonsFoot]

no oj, i did not say out of the question.

i am saying that i do not think it is very likely that this team will make the tournament. i am saying that it is likely that this team has another 1-3 "bad losses" on poor shooting nights. as a result, i do not think a tournament appearance is likely. we are not mathematically eliminated yet so its not out of the question... but its not likely.

do you disagree? i'd love to have you state an actual opinion here

OJ only posts his opinions about Al Skinner, HJS, and 74.

[Eagledom]

no oj, i did not say out of the question.

i am saying that i do not think it is very likely that this team will make the tournament. i am saying that it is likely that this team has another 1-3 "bad losses" on poor shooting nights. as a result, i do not think a tournament appearance is likely. we are not mathematically eliminated yet so its not out of the question... but its not likely.

do you disagree? i'd love to have you state an actual opinion here

The losses to Yale and Harvard will kill us if we are on the bubble, but I think they'll make the tourney. I think there is no chance in hell we make the tourney with our former coach with this team.

[cvilleagle]

BC is going to win 20 or 21 games. They will be on the bubble. The last-place Ivy League finish will be the death knell, unless they get to 22 or 23, make a run in the ACC tourney, or beat Duke to offset the WTF losses. Only thing making them look good right now is a win over TA&M (and to a lesser extent, a better than you know MD team on the road) team that will lose 5-6 times minimum in conference (and get anhilated by Kansas twice).

Exactly. Without a win vs Duke, 20 or 21 isn't enough with this resume. Which is what I think we'll probably get.

[Cadillac90]

no oj, i did not say out of the question.

i am saying that i do not think it is very likely that this team will make the tournament. i am saying that it is likely that this team has another 1-3 "bad losses" on poor shooting nights. as a result, i do not think a tournament appearance is likely. we are not mathematically eliminated yet so its not out of the question... but its not likely.

do you disagree? i'd love to have you state an actual opinion here

The losses to Yale and Harvard will kill us if we are on the bubble, but I think they'll make the tourney. I think there is no chance in hell we make the tourney with our former coach with this team.

Right because you have a crystal ball that tells you exactly the outcome of every game with a totally different team on the court (Sanders, Revenal, Helsip, Noreen).

[eepstein0]

BC is going to win 20 or 21 games. They will be on the bubble. The last-place Ivy League finish will be the death knell, unless they get to 22 or 23, make a run in the ACC tourney, or beat Duke to offset the WTF losses. Only thing making them look good right now is a win over TA&M (and to a lesser extent, a better than you know MD team on the road) team that will lose 5-6 times minimum in conference (and get anhilated by Kansas twice).

Exactly. Without a win vs Duke, 20 or 21 isn't enough with this resume. Which is what I think we'll probably get.

21-9 (11-5 in the ACC) will absolutely get you in the NCAAA Tournament. You're insane if you think a 21 win ACC team isn't getting in with 11 wins in conference. It may come down to winning a game in the ACC Tournament (which my bachelor party will be held at).

[Eagledom]

no oj, i did not say out of the question.

i am saying that i do not think it is very likely that this team will make the tournament. i am saying that it is likely that this team has another 1-3 "bad losses" on poor shooting nights. as a result, i do not think a tournament appearance is likely. we are not mathematically eliminated yet so its not out of the question... but its not likely.

do you disagree? i'd love to have you state an actual opinion here

The losses to Yale and Harvard will kill us if we are on the bubble, but I think they'll make the tourney. I think there is no chance in hell we make the tourney with our former coach with this team.

Right because you have a crystal ball that tells you exactly the outcome of every game with a totally different team on the court (Sanders, Revenal, Helsip, Noreen).

I don't need a crystal ball, obsession boy.

[bignick33]

BC is going to win 20 or 21 games. They will be on the bubble. The last-place Ivy League finish will be the death knell, unless they get to 22 or 23, make a run in the ACC tourney, or beat Duke to offset the WTF losses. Only thing making them look good right now is a win over TA&M (and to a lesser extent, a better than you know MD team on the road) team that will lose 5-6 times minimum in conference (and get anhilated by Kansas twice).

Exactly. Without a win vs Duke, 20 or 21 isn't enough with this resume. Which is what I think we'll probably get.

21-9 (11-5 in the ACC) will absolutely get you in the NCAAA Tournament. You're insane if you think a 21 win ACC team isn't getting in with 11 wins in conference. It may come down to winning a game in the ACC Tournament (which my bachelor party will be held at).

This. I think 20 is the magic number for this team considering SOS.

[eepstein0]

BC is going to win 20 or 21 games. They will be on the bubble. The last-place Ivy League finish will be the death knell, unless they get to 22 or 23, make a run in the ACC tourney, or beat Duke to offset the WTF losses. Only thing making them look good right now is a win over TA&M (and to a lesser extent, a better than you know MD team on the road) team that will lose 5-6 times minimum in conference (and get anhilated by Kansas twice).

Exactly. Without a win vs Duke, 20 or 21 isn't enough with this resume. Which is what I think we'll probably get.

21-9 (11-5 in the ACC) will absolutely get you in the NCAAA Tournament. You're insane if you think a 21 win ACC team isn't getting in with 11 wins in conference. It may come down to winning a game in the ACC Tournament (which my bachelor party will be held at).

This. I think 20 is the magic number for this team considering SOS.

Thank you. 20 probably does it. Seth Greenberg and VT got left our because their SOS was a complete joke in past years. Our SOS will finish top 30 probably.

[bignick33]

BC is going to win 20 or 21 games. They will be on the bubble. The last-place Ivy League finish will be the death knell, unless they get to 22 or 23, make a run in the ACC tourney, or beat Duke to offset the WTF losses. Only thing making them look good right now is a win over TA&M (and to a lesser extent, a better than you know MD team on the road) team that will lose 5-6 times minimum in conference (and get anhilated by Kansas twice).

Exactly. Without a win vs Duke, 20 or 21 isn't enough with this resume. Which is what I think we'll probably get.

21-9 (11-5 in the ACC) will absolutely get you in the NCAAA Tournament. You're insane if you think a 21 win ACC team isn't getting in with 11 wins in conference. It may come down to winning a game in the ACC Tournament (which my bachelor party will be held at).

This. I think 20 is the magic number for this team considering SOS.

Thank you. 20 probably does it. Seth Greenberg and VT got left our because their SOS was a complete joke in past years. Our SOS will finish top 30 probably.

The Committee looks at mostly at RPI, SOS, good wins, overall record, record vs. good teams, and how a team is playing down the stretch. People are overstating the impact of losing to bad teams. IMO, the biggest impact from the Yale/Harvard games are that BC will have to beat one more good team than they otherwise would have. Texas A&M on a neutral court will hopefully be a signature will, especially if A&M stays in the top 25 of the RPI. 20 wins, a winning record in the conference, a strong SOS, and a 40ish RPI (which is what the resume would be if we get to 20 wins) will get BC into the Tourney just as it would in any other year.

Of course...getting to 20 wins will be much more said that done.

[Cadillac90]

no oj, i did not say out of the question.

i am saying that i do not think it is very likely that this team will make the tournament. i am saying that it is likely that this team has another 1-3 "bad losses" on poor shooting nights. as a result, i do not think a tournament appearance is likely. we are not mathematically eliminated yet so its not out of the question... but its not likely.

do you disagree? i'd love to have you state an actual opinion here

The losses to Yale and Harvard will kill us if we are on the bubble, but I think they'll make the tourney. I think there is no chance in hell we make the tourney with our former coach with this team.

Right because you have a crystal ball that tells you exactly the outcome of every game with a totally different team on the court (Sanders, Revenal, Helsip, Noreen).

I don't need a crystal ball, obsession boy.

Ha...coming from the guy that has to bash Skinner at every opportunity. Give it a rest already.

[twballgame9]

SOS won't look as good when opponents reach their own conference play. Just sayin'. TA&M has 4 ass whoopings coming from Kansas and Texas, and potential 2 more from KSU.

[eepstein0]

i'm confused... is the acc as good as it usually is this year or not?

sure, in a typical acc year 20 wins will get you into the tournament - but those are the years the acc is putting 6 or 7 teams in. i do not think the acc is putting 6 or 7 teams in.

in a typical acc year, the top 6 teams in the acc have a commendable rpi. is that to be the case this year?

this thread is starting to remind me of ghostbusters and you guys are crossing streams

The ACC sucks. Although true, 20 wins in the ACC will get you in because the conference has the tradition, etc. It shouldn't be that way, but it is. VT last year went 10-6 with 20 total wins and didn't get in because of their heinous OOC schedule. Ours will be good enough playing A&M, Cal, Wisconsin, Providence and South Carolina to get us in. 20-12, 10-6 in conference with 1 win in the ACCT will be just fine. 19-13 and 9-7 in conference is probably going to require winning 2 games in the ACCT.

Beating Miami Saturday Night and then a very winnable game against VT would put us at 5-0 and really give us some breathing room looking towards March.

[pick6pedro]

i really think you are downplaying how bad the acc will be perceived on a national level and how horrendous the losses to the ivies will be viewed. 20 wins is on the bubble and teams with two ivy losses do not get off the bubble.

lastly - much like football and the bowl selection, bc basketball does not get a whole lot of love from the selection committee. if x4nd0r hadn't ruined the old ei website you could go back 6 or 7 years and read the annual gripes about our mistreatment in seeds, locations, or not being selected at all.

Except for 2009 where they were seeded too high.