Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby twballgame9 on Mon Jun 07, 2010 4:36 pm

OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:I don't believe the outcome is fixed. The watchability of the game is fixed, without question, and it has an impact on who wins. Without the refs "managing the game" last night, the Celtics are up 20 at the half, everyone turns off the TV, and it is never close. Same could be said in the third quarter in the opposite direction, when the refs clearly eliminated laker momentum before the game got out of hand for the Lakers.


If that is the case, the league's plot is very sinister. For refs to put Kobe in foul trouble as we are killing the Lakers (in Q2), and for them to still have in mind a plan to make the game close by the end of Q2, that's saying something.

Since I have already spent over $2,000 in playoff tickets this year (2 games against Miami and Cleveland and 3 against Orlando), this scenario wouldn't make me feel too good. So, I prefer to play it down knowing fully well that much more sinister plots have happened, fuelled by the commercial interest of certain parties.


For every one call against Kobe in the second quarter, when Allen threatened to singlehandedly end the game, there were 5 calls on Celtic big men. Half of the "blocks" by Laker bigs in the first half were fouls. Then, in the third quarter, it shifted the opposite way as the Lakers threatened to pull out down the stretch. Rondo's reach in on Fisher should have been a foul, for example. That was when Kobe really got into foul trouble (and most of the calls on Kobe were actually good calls).

And there was one more swing back. Once Kobe got foul 5, he could have murdered someone and not been called for a foul. The funniest joke was Jackson trying to justify the no-call when he mugged Allen on the 2-on-1 with Rondo late. The NBA knows that a 6th on Kobe means Game Over. Because without Kober, the Lakers are the Nets.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby branchinator on Mon Jun 07, 2010 4:42 pm

And how about the BS foul on Allen or Perkins on that Kobe shot, which put the Lakers up 3? The replays clearly showed that neither player touched Kobe, yet, a foul was called. Of course, Mark Jackson sees the replay and still brings up the "contact" by Perkins in his analysis of the play. Van Gundy is the only guy with balls on that announcing team.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby Eagledom on Mon Jun 07, 2010 4:49 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby twballgame9 on Mon Jun 07, 2010 4:57 pm

Eagledom {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.


Celtics haven't lost two in a row on the road all post season, and they have been playing better teams than the Lakers. And to say that the Lakers need one of three is fucking brilliance, considering that if they lose all three the series is over.


This series is over if the Lakers don't win 2. Period. They have no chance to win both 6 and 7 in LA.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby BC '00 on Mon Jun 07, 2010 4:57 pm

Eagledom {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.

psst...OJ just took a stand
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby OldEaglePub on Mon Jun 07, 2010 4:58 pm

Eagledom {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.


No, you are very stupid.

A lesson in combined probability:

Winning two games, on each of which you are a light-to-moderate favorite, is still a slightly under 50% proposition. If your definition of "easily winning both" means "they would have under 50% chances of winning both games" then, you are really really really STUPID...which is nothing new.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby twballgame9 on Mon Jun 07, 2010 4:58 pm

BC '00 {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.

psst...OJ just took a stand


If the Lakers don't get 2 of 3 in Boston, they are more done than the Capitals.


OJ didn't take a stand, par for the course, he just opined that everyone else's stand was stupid.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby OldEaglePub on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:03 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.


Celtics haven't lost two in a row on the road all post season, and they have been playing better teams than the Lakers. And to say that the Lakers need one of three is fucking brilliance, considering that if they lose all three the series is over.


This series is over if the Lakers don't win 2. Period. They have no chance to win both 6 and 7 in LA.


:whammy

I am with you as far as the Celtics being on the driving seat should they go up 3-2, but still wanted to differentiate probability (as derived from odds) from probability (as I see it).

I am just trying to make a case that LA winning two straight games in LA is statistically speaking, an underdog's position (so under 50% chance). Nevertheless if someone paid me about +200 on the Lakers to win the series being down 3-2, I would probably take the Lakers.

Just saying.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby Eagledom on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:15 pm

OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.


No, you are very stupid.

A lesson in combined probability:

Winning two games, on each of which you are a light-to-moderate favorite, is still a slightly under 50% proposition. If your definition of "easily winning both" means "they would have under 50% chances of winning both games" then, you are really really really STUPID...which is nothing new.


wow, are you really saying that playing at home does not enter into that combined probability equation? The fact that you are applying it to sports is bad enough, but using it as evidence to back your claim that there's no way the lakers could win games 6 and 7 at home is one of the most fucking ridiculous things I have ever read on this board. sounds like a post from a first year Stats student that has never played or watched sports in his life.
Last edited by Eagledom on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby OldEaglePub on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:18 pm

Eagledom {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.


No, you are very stupid.

A lesson in combined probability:

Winning two games, on each of which you are a light-to-moderate favorite, is still a slightly under 50% proposition. If your definition of "easily winning both" means "they would have under 50% chances of winning both games" then, you are really really really STUPID...which is nothing new.


wow, are you really saying that playing at home does not enter into that combined probability equation? The fact that you are applying it to sports is bad enough, but using it as evidence to back your claim that there's no way the lakers could win games 6 and 7 at home is one of the most fucking ridiculous things I have ever read on this board.


You really are challenged.

You have gone from:

1. Could easily win both games

to

2. There is a chance they could win both games

while I have always stuck to

3. There is a below 50% probability that they win both


The fact that they are playing at home makes the Lakers light-to-moderate favorites on EACH OF THE GAMES (even being down 3-2 in the series) so that is factored in. The problem is that you are really challenged and unable to complete an argument coherently and cogently. This is pretty sad.
Last edited by OldEaglePub on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby BC '00 on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:19 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
BC '00 {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.

psst...OJ just took a stand


If the Lakers don't get 2 of 3 in Boston, they are more done than the Capitals.


OJ didn't take a stand, par for the course, he just opined that everyone else's stand was stupid.

Correction: OJ did NOT take a stand. He made an OJ
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby Eagledom on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:26 pm

OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
DuchesneEast {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.


The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.



The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.


The lakers need one of 3 in boston, 2 of 3 would be a bonus. They could very easily win 6 and 7 at home. To say they are done if they go back down 3-2 is fucking stupid.


No, you are very stupid.

A lesson in combined probability:

Winning two games, on each of which you are a light-to-moderate favorite, is still a slightly under 50% proposition. If your definition of "easily winning both" means "they would have under 50% chances of winning both games" then, you are really really really STUPID...which is nothing new.


wow, are you really saying that playing at home does not enter into that combined probability equation? The fact that you are applying it to sports is bad enough, but using it as evidence to back your claim that there's no way the lakers could win games 6 and 7 at home is one of the most fucking ridiculous things I have ever read on this board.


You really are challenged.

You have gone from:

1. Could easily win both games

to

2. There is a chance they could win both games

while I have always stuck to

3. There is a below 50% probability that they win both


The fact that they are playing at home makes the Lakers light-to-moderate favorites on EACH OF THE GAMES (even being down 3-2 in the series) so that is factored in. The problem is that you are really challenged and unable to complete an argument coherently and cogently. This is pretty sad.


this is too fucking stupid to even argue with. geeky boy here using his stats classes to argue probability in sports. I know the odds of getting heads on two successive coin flips douchebag (or the chances of something with 55% odds happening twice in a row, since you seem to think those are the Lakers odds). It doesn't apply to games 6 and 7 at home in an nba finals. thanks.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby OldEaglePub on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:30 pm

Eagledom {l Wrote}:
this is too fucking stupid to even argue with. geeky boy here using his stats classes to argue probability in sports. I know the odds of getting heads on two successive coin flips douchebag.(or the chances of something with 55% odds happening twice in a row, since you seem to think those are the Lakers odds It doesn't apply to games 6 and 7 at home in an nba finals.) thanks.


I guess the fact that this thread is for the most part dealing with sport odds and the implied probability of an outcome attributable to the consensus bettor is of little relevance here...right, OJ?

Oh, one more thing. Consensus would have to think Lakers were over 70% likely to win each game for the combined event to result in Lakers being favored to win the Championship. I like the 55% number you came up with though. Shows mastery of the subject at hand.
Last edited by OldEaglePub on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby twballgame9 on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:36 pm

How about the probability of the Celtics losing twice in a row on the road in these playoffs currently being 0% based on available statistical information?

The Lakers have no home court advantage. Their fans suck donkey balls, the Celtics are one of the best FT shooting teams in the league, and the Celtics haven't lost twice in a row, on the road, in these playoffs. Ignoring high school math, and your obvious "that's not true stupid, but I don't know what is true" response, the Lakers have no more chance of winning two in a row at home in 6 and 7 than they did in 1 and 2.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby Eagledom on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:37 pm

OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
this is too fucking stupid to even argue with. geeky boy here using his stats classes to argue probability in sports. I know the odds of getting heads on two successive coin flips douchebag. It doesn't apply to games 6 and 7 at home in an nba finals. thanks.


I guess the fact that this thread is for the most part dealing with sport odds and the implied probability of an outcome attributable to the consensus bettor is of little relevance here...right, OJ?


You said the Lakers "would not win games 6 and 7 at home". And others agreed and said the series is over unless they took 2 of 3 in Boston. Can you please tell me what stats and rules of probability you were using to determine that a best of 7 series would be over after the Celts had only won 3 games, because that would be a new one to me.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby bignick33 on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:38 pm

I'm done with this thread now that OJ showed up.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby twballgame9 on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:41 pm

Eagledom {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
this is too fucking stupid to even argue with. geeky boy here using his stats classes to argue probability in sports. I know the odds of getting heads on two successive coin flips douchebag. It doesn't apply to games 6 and 7 at home in an nba finals. thanks.


I guess the fact that this thread is for the most part dealing with sport odds and the implied probability of an outcome attributable to the consensus bettor is of little relevance here...right, OJ?


You said the Lakers "would not win games 6 and 7 at home". And others agreed and said the series is over unless they took 2 of 3 in Boston. Can you please tell me what stats and rules of probability you were using to determine that a best of 7 series would be over after the Celts had only won 3 games, because that would be a new one to me.


Celtics have not lost back to back games on the road in the playoffs.

The Celtics have played better teams than the Lakers.

If the Lakers only win 1 in Boston, they need to win back to back games at home to win the Championship.

Ain't going to happen.


Fact is that it is much more likely given the trends that the Lakers take 2 of games 3, 4 and 5 in Boston than it is that they take both games 6 and 7 at home.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby OldEaglePub on Mon Jun 07, 2010 5:55 pm

Eagledom {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
this is too fucking stupid to even argue with. geeky boy here using his stats classes to argue probability in sports. I know the odds of getting heads on two successive coin flips douchebag. It doesn't apply to games 6 and 7 at home in an nba finals. thanks.


I guess the fact that this thread is for the most part dealing with sport odds and the implied probability of an outcome attributable to the consensus bettor is of little relevance here...right, OJ?


You said the Lakers "would not win games 6 and 7 at home". And others agreed and said the series is over unless they took 2 of 3 in Boston. Can you please tell me what stats and rules of probability you were using to determine that a best of 7 series would be over after the Celts had only won 3 games, because that would be a new one to me.


I don't think I said that. As a matter of fact, I think I just said that at odds +200, I would take the Lakers. I said that because I know fully well that the Lakers would still have a 30%-40% shot of pulling the series by winning the last two games at home even if they were down 3-2. Nevertheless, since the current odds have Lakers close to 60% likely of pulling the Championship, I am picking the Celtics, because I sense CONSENSUS does not believe Celtics will go into game 6 leading 3-2. So, basically my pick is not about the Celtics winning the Championship, but about the Celtics winning 2 out of 3 games at home, at which time the odds are likely to reflect what I think I already know (Celtics being able to win 2 out of 3 at home).

Heck, branchinator even posted the GAME 3 odds a few posts earlier, and those odds show the Celtics are favorite to win at home GAME 3.

There is a dislocation between the series price and the individual game price. This dislocation can only be explained, as 74 hinted, by Lakers being perceived to be more than 70% likely to win each game (6 or 7). What is missed in all of this is that should Celts go up 3-2 in this series, they would have already won 3 games against the Lakers, at which point the 70% probability each game would be ludicrous.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby Eagledom on Mon Jun 07, 2010 6:20 pm

OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
this is too fucking stupid to even argue with. geeky boy here using his stats classes to argue probability in sports. I know the odds of getting heads on two successive coin flips douchebag. It doesn't apply to games 6 and 7 at home in an nba finals. thanks.


I guess the fact that this thread is for the most part dealing with sport odds and the implied probability of an outcome attributable to the consensus bettor is of little relevance here...right, OJ?


You said the Lakers "would not win games 6 and 7 at home". And others agreed and said the series is over unless they took 2 of 3 in Boston. Can you please tell me what stats and rules of probability you were using to determine that a best of 7 series would be over after the Celts had only won 3 games, because that would be a new one to me.


I don't think I said that.



"Lakers will not win 6 and 7 at home."

see page 1
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby OldEaglePub on Mon Jun 07, 2010 6:34 pm

Eagledom {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
this is too fucking stupid to even argue with. geeky boy here using his stats classes to argue probability in sports. I know the odds of getting heads on two successive coin flips douchebag. It doesn't apply to games 6 and 7 at home in an nba finals. thanks.


I guess the fact that this thread is for the most part dealing with sport odds and the implied probability of an outcome attributable to the consensus bettor is of little relevance here...right, OJ?


You said the Lakers "would not win games 6 and 7 at home". And others agreed and said the series is over unless they took 2 of 3 in Boston. Can you please tell me what stats and rules of probability you were using to determine that a best of 7 series would be over after the Celts had only won 3 games, because that would be a new one to me.


I don't think I said that.



"Lakers will not win 6 and 7 at home."

see page 1


I don't try to get too much into the daily routines (of this board) that have led to you being widely considered as the village idiot in here. Hopefully, for your own sake, this has more to do with your need to feel unique (perceived stupidity is a steep price to pay for it though) then you just being plain slow. I do feel for you.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby pick6pedro on Mon Jun 07, 2010 6:45 pm

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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby Eagledom on Mon Jun 07, 2010 7:19 pm

OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
OldEaglePub {l Wrote}:
Eagledom {l Wrote}:
this is too fucking stupid to even argue with. geeky boy here using his stats classes to argue probability in sports. I know the odds of getting heads on two successive coin flips douchebag. It doesn't apply to games 6 and 7 at home in an nba finals. thanks.


I guess the fact that this thread is for the most part dealing with sport odds and the implied probability of an outcome attributable to the consensus bettor is of little relevance here...right, OJ?


You said the Lakers "would not win games 6 and 7 at home". And others agreed and said the series is over unless they took 2 of 3 in Boston. Can you please tell me what stats and rules of probability you were using to determine that a best of 7 series would be over after the Celts had only won 3 games, because that would be a new one to me.


I don't think I said that.



"Lakers will not win 6 and 7 at home."

see page 1


I don't try to get too much into the daily routines (of this board) that have led to you being widely considered as the village idiot in here. Hopefully, for your own sake, this has more to do with your need to feel unique (perceived stupidity is a steep price to pay for it though) then you just being plain slow. I do feel for you.


I show you where you started backtracking and this is the best you can do? Nice grammar too, from the guy throwing out the "village idiot" quote.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby h2o on Mon Jun 07, 2010 7:51 pm

Tim Donaghy was on D&C a few weeks ago. He claims the NBA has their refs control games to extend playoff series. If one team is clearly better than another, they won't let it get to seven games because anything can happen in a seventh game.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby Eagledom on Mon Jun 07, 2010 8:02 pm

h2o {l Wrote}:Tim Donaghy was on D&C a few weeks ago. He claims the NBA has their refs control games to extend playoff series. If one team is clearly better than another, they won't let it get to seven games because anything can happen in a seventh game.


The NBA is like professional wrestling. It is so orchestrated, its silly.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby twballgame9 on Mon Jun 07, 2010 9:28 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:I don't believe the outcome is fixed. The watchability of the game is fixed, without question, and it has an impact on who wins. Without the refs "managing the game" last night, the Celtics are up 20 at the half, everyone turns off the TV, and it is never close. Same could be said in the third quarter in the opposite direction, when the refs clearly eliminated laker momentum before the game got out of hand for the Lakers.


Join the bandwagon, OJ.

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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby HustlinOwl on Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:56 am

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
branchinator {l Wrote}:I didn't say that the NBA would gift the title to the Lakers. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised to see LA win 2 games to close out the series, largely because I think Game 6 for LA would be a foregone conclusion. In Game 7, who the hell knows. And if you don't think that the NBA favors certain outcomes, all you need to do is type in "Lakers/Kings Game 6" on Youtube and see what comes up. In that game, the Lakers shot 27 FTs...in the 4th quarter. I think you'd see a mini-version of that in a hypothetical Game 6 if the Lakers needed the help. There's also the possibility of the Lakers simply outplaying the Celtics in 2 games since they're more talented.


The Lakers are not more talented than the Celtics. If Garnett were completely healthy, it wouldn't even be close. The Celtics played the two best teams (other than themselves) in the NBA in the playoffs already, and neither is still playing.

After Kobe, and Gasol, there isn't a player on the Lakers that would see significant minutes for the Celtics.


Bynum, Fisher, Odom would all see significant minutes for the Celtics.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby b0mberMan on Tue Jun 08, 2010 12:32 pm

HustlinOwl {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
branchinator {l Wrote}:I didn't say that the NBA would gift the title to the Lakers. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised to see LA win 2 games to close out the series, largely because I think Game 6 for LA would be a foregone conclusion. In Game 7, who the hell knows. And if you don't think that the NBA favors certain outcomes, all you need to do is type in "Lakers/Kings Game 6" on Youtube and see what comes up. In that game, the Lakers shot 27 FTs...in the 4th quarter. I think you'd see a mini-version of that in a hypothetical Game 6 if the Lakers needed the help. There's also the possibility of the Lakers simply outplaying the Celtics in 2 games since they're more talented.


The Lakers are not more talented than the Celtics. If Garnett were completely healthy, it wouldn't even be close. The Celtics played the two best teams (other than themselves) in the NBA in the playoffs already, and neither is still playing.

After Kobe, and Gasol, there isn't a player on the Lakers that would see significant minutes for the Celtics.


Bynum, Fisher, Odom would all see significant minutes for the Celtics.


I'd give you Bynum. But explain why a headcase and a washed-up point guard would get significant minutes for the Celts. Especially Fisher. I'm intrigued to hear why he deserves Rondo's minutes.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby branchinator on Tue Jun 08, 2010 1:23 pm

There's a reason why Derek Fisher was terrible with Golden State and Utah. He sucks. Fisher's biggest attribute is that he hits a lot of clutch shots that are generated off of double teams to Kobe/Gasol. There's no way Fisher would be playing more than 5-10 mpg for the Celtics. And if KG were healthy, Odom wouldn't be playing much for the Celtics either. Bynum would probably start over Perkins but it'd be pretty close.
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby BC '00 on Tue Jun 08, 2010 1:35 pm

branchinator {l Wrote}:There's a reason why Derek Fisher was terrible with Golden State and Utah. He sucks. Fisher's biggest attribute is that he hits a lot of clutch shots that are generated off of double teams to Kobe/Gasol. There's no way Fisher would be playing more than 5-10 mpg for the Celtics. And if KG were healthy, Odom wouldn't be playing much for the Celtics either. Bynum would probably start over Perkins but it'd be pretty close.

Wouldn't you think that Fisher would play over Krypto-Nate? Being the primary backup at PG for the Celtics could be interpreted as "playing meaningful minutes".
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Re: Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

Postby twballgame9 on Tue Jun 08, 2010 1:56 pm

HustlinOwl {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
branchinator {l Wrote}:I didn't say that the NBA would gift the title to the Lakers. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised to see LA win 2 games to close out the series, largely because I think Game 6 for LA would be a foregone conclusion. In Game 7, who the hell knows. And if you don't think that the NBA favors certain outcomes, all you need to do is type in "Lakers/Kings Game 6" on Youtube and see what comes up. In that game, the Lakers shot 27 FTs...in the 4th quarter. I think you'd see a mini-version of that in a hypothetical Game 6 if the Lakers needed the help. There's also the possibility of the Lakers simply outplaying the Celtics in 2 games since they're more talented.


The Lakers are not more talented than the Celtics. If Garnett were completely healthy, it wouldn't even be close. The Celtics played the two best teams (other than themselves) in the NBA in the playoffs already, and neither is still playing.

After Kobe, and Gasol, there isn't a player on the Lakers that would see significant minutes for the Celtics.


Bynum, Fisher, Odom would all see significant minutes for the Celtics.


Um, yeah, no.
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