Somehow, Vegas still sees the Lakers as favorite in this one

[OldEaglePub]

Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.

[DuchesneEast]

Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.

The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.

[twballgame9]

Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.

The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.

The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.

[OldEaglePub]

Celtics +120 to win the Championship. The odds were +160 before the series started.

I wonder why the adjustment in odds hasn't been more significant!!!!

1. Boston has home court advantage.

2. Boston has been good on the road going 6-4 in the playoffs and 32 - 19 including the regular season. Odds are firmly stacked against Lakers winning both Game 6 and 7 in LA.

In my mind, these odds imply consensus favors Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. I don't believe that happens.

Celtics win Championship.

The odds figure that the Lakers will take one of 3 in Boston and get home court back.

The Lakers need to win two in Boston to win. If they go back anything other than 3-2 up, it's over.

CORRECT!

I have seen few even-matched team matchups, where the team facing two elimination games back-to-back is a favorite. The odds are certainly implying Lakers winning 2 of 3 in Boston. It won't happen.

[DuchesneEast]

So you dont think hte Lakers can take 2 at home. I may agree but its not impossible.

You also need to remember Vegas probably has more money coming in from LA then Boston so it needs to keep it evened up.

[OldEaglePub]

You also need to remember Vegas probably has more money coming in from LA then Boston so it needs to keep it evened up.

I agree with this somewhat, even though these odds are global.

[twballgame9]

So you dont think hte Lakers can take 2 at home. I may agree but its not impossible.

You also need to remember Vegas probably has more money coming in from LA then Boston so it needs to keep it evened up.

No, there is absolutely no chance that the Celtics lose back to back elimination games in LA. Lakers need two in Boston, where for whatever inexplicable reason, the Celtics are more vulnerable this year.

[branchinator]

I could easily see LA winning Games 6 and 7 to win the series. Last night, LA had a 39-16 FT advantage before garbage time altered the ratio a little bit despite the fact that both teams were equally aggressive going to the hoop. The only reason why the Celtics aren't down 0-2 right now is because Ray had a historic game and Rondo played out of his mind in the 4th. If the Celtics lead 3-2 going back to LA, I will bet my left nut on LA winning Game 6. Then, in Game 7, it'd be a crapshoot that should feature some "better" officiating.

[OldEaglePub]

I could easily see LA winning Games 6 and 7 to win the series. Last night, LA had a 39-16 FT advantage before garbage time altered the ratio a little bit despite the fact that both teams were equally aggressive going to the hoop. The only reason why the Celtics aren't down 0-2 right now is because Ray had a historic game and Rondo played out of his mind in the 4th. If the Celtics lead 3-2 going back to LA, I will bet my left nut on LA winning Game 6. Then, in Game 7, it'd be a crapshoot that should feature some "better" officiating.

Your analysis is a joke:

1. Ray Allen has averaged 21 ppg against the Lakers in his career. Last night he got 32 points. +11.
2. Paul Pierce has averaged 27 ppg against the Lakers. Last night he got 10. - 17.
3. KG has averaged 20 ppg against the Lakers. Last night he got 6. -14.

Last night:

1. Celtics bench outscored the Lakers'bench 24-15.
2. Celtics outrebound the Lakers 44-39 overall, and 13-10 on the offensive board.
3. Celtics commit 2 fewer turnovers.


All fundamentals were in our favor last night. From an individualities perspective, Piece and Garnett underperformed much more than Ray Allen and Rondo outperformed.

This was won by playing sound basketball. As usual, 2 out of 4 individuals showed up. This team has 3 (or 4) Hall of Famers and this is to be expected.

Lakers will not win 6 and 7 at home.

P.S. I am pretty sure that while Rondo played out of his mind, Bynum and his 21 points were well within the ordinary.

[branchinator]

I don't even know what you're talking about, dickface. The Celtics deserved to win last night. They played better. My point was that the refs and Shelden Williams' 3-4 minutes kept that game far closer than it actually was. And, as a Celtics fan, I'm not confident in the Celtics getting a fair shake if the series goes back to LA.

[OldEaglePub]

I don't even know what you're talking about, dickface. The Celtics deserved to win last night. They played better. My point was that the refs and Shelden Williams' 3-4 minutes kept that game far closer than it actually was. And, as a Celtics fan, I'm not confident in the Celtics getting a fair shake if the series goes back to LA.

Are you aware Kobe Bryant played all Q4 with 5 fouls and was pretty much reduced to a no-factor defensively and to a certain extent offensively because of that?

Of course, there were 3-4 fouls on the Celts that shouldn't have been, but Kobe's foul trouble had a massive impact on the game. NBA refs are inept. That is a fact.

Given that 2 Celtics star players almost did not show up, Celtics got 3-4 bogus calls, and we still pulled the game should give you confidence that we won't drop two games in LA. The performances of Ray and Rondo were only part of what led to the Celtic win last night.

[branchinator]

I don't even know what you're talking about, dickface. The Celtics deserved to win last night. They played better. My point was that the refs and Shelden Williams' 3-4 minutes kept that game far closer than it actually was. And, as a Celtics fan, I'm not confident in the Celtics getting a fair shake if the series goes back to LA.

Are you aware Kobe Bryant played all Q4 with 5 fouls and was pretty much reduced to a no-factor defensively and to a certain extent offensively because of that?

Of course, there were 3-4 fouls on the Celts that shouldn't have been, but Kobe's foul trouble had a massive impact on the game. NBA refs are inept. That is a fact.

Given that 2 Celtics star players almost did not show up, Celtics got 3-4 bogus calls, and we still pulled the game should give you confidence that we won't drop two games in LA. The performances of Ray and Rondo were only part of what led to the Celtic win last night.

Yes, I'm aware of that. I also watched Game 1 where the refs did the same exact thing to Ray Allen. I also saw every big man in the Celtics' rotation get 3-4 first half fouls, which necessitated playing Shelden Williams' useless ass, a sequence that cost the Celtics about 5-6 points.

It basically would come down to a Game 7. I would bet my life on LA winning Game 6 if they trailed 3-2 in the series.

[OldEaglePub]

I don't even know what you're talking about, dickface. The Celtics deserved to win last night. They played better. My point was that the refs and Shelden Williams' 3-4 minutes kept that game far closer than it actually was. And, as a Celtics fan, I'm not confident in the Celtics getting a fair shake if the series goes back to LA.

Are you aware Kobe Bryant played all Q4 with 5 fouls and was pretty much reduced to a no-factor defensively and to a certain extent offensively because of that?

Of course, there were 3-4 fouls on the Celts that shouldn't have been, but Kobe's foul trouble had a massive impact on the game. NBA refs are inept. That is a fact.

Given that 2 Celtics star players almost did not show up, Celtics got 3-4 bogus calls, and we still pulled the game should give you confidence that we won't drop two games in LA. The performances of Ray and Rondo were only part of what led to the Celtic win last night.

Yes, I'm aware of that. I also watched Game 1 where the refs did the same exact thing to Ray Allen. I also saw every big man in the Celtics' rotation get 3-4 first half fouls, which necessitated playing Shelden Williams' useless ass, a sequence that cost the Celtics about 5-6 points.

It basically would come down to a Game 7. I would bet my life on LA winning Game 6 if they trailed 3-2 in the series.

But winning GAME 6, on which you would bet your ass, would still be a bet. Which the Lakers would need to win facing elimination. And the next game they played, they once again would need to win facing elimination. Winning two consecutive back-to-back games, if we believe the teams are evenly matched, is definitely an under 50% proposition.

And this is what this post is all about. Lakers are favorite because the consensus thinks they take 2 out of 3.

[BCEagles25]

If Ray didn't have the half he did, we would've gotten our teeth kicked in. Pierce and KG need to start showing up.

[EagleDave]

The odds also don't reflect the fact that in a potential Game 7 at Staples, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Ron Artest would collectively shit their paints and leave matching urine trails up and down the court. Game 7 would be all Celtics.

[branchinator]

I've watched too many NBA games not to be cynical. In 2008, the Celtics kicked the Lakers' ass so badly that the refs couldn't do anything about the outcome. In 2010, if the Lakers need some extra help in a Game 6, they'll certainly get it. The only way the Celtics could overcome this is if they shoot lights out.

[twballgame9]

I don't even know what you're talking about, dickface. The Celtics deserved to win last night. They played better. My point was that the refs and Shelden Williams' 3-4 minutes kept that game far closer than it actually was. And, as a Celtics fan, I'm not confident in the Celtics getting a fair shake if the series goes back to LA.

Are you aware Kobe Bryant played all Q4 with 5 fouls and was pretty much reduced to a no-factor defensively and to a certain extent offensively because of that?

Of course, there were 3-4 fouls on the Celts that shouldn't have been, but Kobe's foul trouble had a massive impact on the game. NBA refs are inept. That is a fact.

Given that 2 Celtics star players almost did not show up, Celtics got 3-4 bogus calls, and we still pulled the game should give you confidence that we won't drop two games in LA. The performances of Ray and Rondo were only part of what led to the Celtic win last night.

You missed his point. He is saying the refs could give LA two games in LA.

I say that the Lakers can't win two in a row at home regardless of what the refs do.

[branchinator]

T-Dub gets me. That's exactly what I'm saying. Basically, the only thing that would surprise me would be the Celtics closing out the Lakers in Game 6 in LA. I just don't think the refs/Kobe would let it happen. In a Game 7, all bets are off because the NBA would have gotten what they wanted so I wouldn't be as worried about the refs influencing the game.

[OldEaglePub]

I don't even know what you're talking about, dickface. The Celtics deserved to win last night. They played better. My point was that the refs and Shelden Williams' 3-4 minutes kept that game far closer than it actually was. And, as a Celtics fan, I'm not confident in the Celtics getting a fair shake if the series goes back to LA.

Are you aware Kobe Bryant played all Q4 with 5 fouls and was pretty much reduced to a no-factor defensively and to a certain extent offensively because of that?

Of course, there were 3-4 fouls on the Celts that shouldn't have been, but Kobe's foul trouble had a massive impact on the game. NBA refs are inept. That is a fact.

Given that 2 Celtics star players almost did not show up, Celtics got 3-4 bogus calls, and we still pulled the game should give you confidence that we won't drop two games in LA. The performances of Ray and Rondo were only part of what led to the Celtic win last night.

You missed his point. He is saying the refs could give LA two games in LA.

I say that the Lakers can't win two in a row at home regardless of what the refs do.

I am not missing it. I am playing it down because I believe this league is not fixed. And if it is fixed, there is no rationale to send the Championship to the Lakers and not to the Celtics. In addition, the "fixed" argument is flawed when it comes to a discussion of game 6 and 7, at which time the league has already made its millions.

[twballgame9]

I don't believe the outcome is fixed. The watchability of the game is fixed, without question, and it has an impact on who wins. Without the refs "managing the game" last night, the Celtics are up 20 at the half, everyone turns off the TV, and it is never close. Same could be said in the third quarter in the opposite direction, when the refs clearly eliminated laker momentum before the game got out of hand for the Lakers.

[BCEagle74]

If Ray didn't have the half he did, we would've gotten our teeth kicked in. Pierce and KG need to start showing up.

You guys let the 18 kid kick your ass too?

Like I said hitting 8-11 is 24 points and that torrid shooting was the deal.

Kobe has to play some defense now in games and the next 3 will be fantastic.

as long as it is tied in Game 7 with 2 to go and 88-88, I am happy.

[branchinator]

I didn't say that the NBA would gift the title to the Lakers. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised to see LA win 2 games to close out the series, largely because I think Game 6 for LA would be a foregone conclusion. In Game 7, who the hell knows. And if you don't think that the NBA favors certain outcomes, all you need to do is type in "Lakers/Kings Game 6" on Youtube and see what comes up. In that game, the Lakers shot 27 FTs...in the 4th quarter. I think you'd see a mini-version of that in a hypothetical Game 6 if the Lakers needed the help. There's also the possibility of the Lakers simply outplaying the Celtics in 2 games since they're more talented.

[twballgame9]

I didn't say that the NBA would gift the title to the Lakers. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised to see LA win 2 games to close out the series, largely because I think Game 6 for LA would be a foregone conclusion. In Game 7, who the hell knows. And if you don't think that the NBA favors certain outcomes, all you need to do is type in "Lakers/Kings Game 6" on Youtube and see what comes up. In that game, the Lakers shot 27 FTs...in the 4th quarter. I think you'd see a mini-version of that in a hypothetical Game 6 if the Lakers needed the help. There's also the possibility of the Lakers simply outplaying the Celtics in 2 games since they're more talented.

The Lakers are not more talented than the Celtics. If Garnett were completely healthy, it wouldn't even be close. The Celtics played the two best teams (other than themselves) in the NBA in the playoffs already, and neither is still playing.

After Kobe, and Gasol, there isn't a player on the Lakers that would see significant minutes for the Celtics.

[OldEaglePub]

I didn't say that the NBA would gift the title to the Lakers. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised to see LA win 2 games to close out the series, largely because I think Game 6 for LA would be a foregone conclusion. In Game 7, who the hell knows. And if you don't think that the NBA favors certain outcomes, all you need to do is type in "Lakers/Kings Game 6" on Youtube and see what comes up. In that game, the Lakers shot 27 FTs...in the 4th quarter. I think you'd see a mini-version of that in a hypothetical Game 6 if the Lakers needed the help. There's also the possibility of the Lakers simply outplaying the Celtics in 2 games since they're more talented.

I guess the only way for me to make my point is for the Celtics to win 2 out of the next 3 and then for the odds to come way down showing Celtics to be a favorite, which I am certain, would happen.

Again, it is my belief consensus is calling for Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. Should that not happen, at the end of game 5, Celtics will be the favorite to win the Championship.

[twballgame9]

I didn't say that the NBA would gift the title to the Lakers. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised to see LA win 2 games to close out the series, largely because I think Game 6 for LA would be a foregone conclusion. In Game 7, who the hell knows. And if you don't think that the NBA favors certain outcomes, all you need to do is type in "Lakers/Kings Game 6" on Youtube and see what comes up. In that game, the Lakers shot 27 FTs...in the 4th quarter. I think you'd see a mini-version of that in a hypothetical Game 6 if the Lakers needed the help. There's also the possibility of the Lakers simply outplaying the Celtics in 2 games since they're more talented.

I guess the only way for me to make my point is for the Celtics to win 2 out of the next 3 and then for the odds to come way down showing Celtics to be a favorite, which I am certain, would happen.

Again, it is my belief consensus is calling for Lakers to win 2 out of 3 in Boston. Should that not happen, at the end of game 5, Celtics will be the favorite to win the Championship.

I agree with you. Lakers MUST win 2 in Boston.

[OldEaglePub]

I didn't say that the NBA would gift the title to the Lakers. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised to see LA win 2 games to close out the series, largely because I think Game 6 for LA would be a foregone conclusion. In Game 7, who the hell knows. And if you don't think that the NBA favors certain outcomes, all you need to do is type in "Lakers/Kings Game 6" on Youtube and see what comes up. In that game, the Lakers shot 27 FTs...in the 4th quarter. I think you'd see a mini-version of that in a hypothetical Game 6 if the Lakers needed the help. There's also the possibility of the Lakers simply outplaying the Celtics in 2 games since they're more talented.

The Lakers are not more talented than the Celtics. If Garnett were completely healthy, it wouldn't even be close. The Celtics played the two best teams (other than themselves) in the NBA in the playoffs already, and neither is still playing.

After Kobe, and Gasol, there isn't a player on the Lakers that would see significant minutes for the Celtics.

Agreed.

The Celtics are underrated. Notable underdog (as per Vegas) positions:

1. At the end of game 2 in Cleveland, where we had dominated both games, we were at +200 to win the series.
2. At the end of game 1 in in Orlando, where we outright killed them, we were at +140 to win the series.

Celtics get no respect.

[branchinator]

Here are the current lines:

Game 3
Celtics -2.5 (Lakers were -5.5, -6.0 in their 2 home games)

To win title
Celtics +115
Lakers -159

If the Celtics win 2 of 3 in Boston, I'd expect the Lakers' odds to be near even money.

[BCEagle74]

If Boston wins 2-3 and goes up 3 games to 2

....The Lakers will be favored by 8 in Game 6 and by 6 in game 7.

You guys are not right.

Miss Cleo is on the other line please hold...

[OldEaglePub]

I don't believe the outcome is fixed. The watchability of the game is fixed, without question, and it has an impact on who wins. Without the refs "managing the game" last night, the Celtics are up 20 at the half, everyone turns off the TV, and it is never close. Same could be said in the third quarter in the opposite direction, when the refs clearly eliminated laker momentum before the game got out of hand for the Lakers.

If that is the case, the league's plot is very sinister. For refs to put Kobe in foul trouble as we are killing the Lakers (in Q2), and for them to still have in mind a plan to make the game close by the end of Q2, that's saying something.

Since I have already spent over $2,000 in playoff tickets this year (2 games against Miami and Cleveland and 3 against Orlando), this scenario wouldn't make me feel too good. So, I prefer to play it down knowing fully well that much more sinister plots have happened, fuelled by the commercial interest of certain parties.

[OldEaglePub]

Here are the current lines:

Game 3
Celtics -2.5 (Lakers were -5.5, -6.0 in their 2 home games)

To win title
Celtics +115
Lakers -159

If the Celtics win 2 of 3 in Boston, I'd expect the Lakers' odds to be near even money.

So we agree. The odds are currently pricing in Lakers taking 2 out of 3 in Boston. Otherwise, Lakers would be at EVEN and not at -159, which is the current price. Whenever the Lakers get to EVEN money, Celtics would have become favorites. Which was my point.

Thanks!!