by EagleDave on Sun May 30, 2010 8:03 pm
Man this series is fascinating...
Rondo will absolutely detonate the 3 headed non-monster of Derek Fisher/Jordan Farmar/Shannon Brown, but the Lakers can't afford to put Kobe on him like they did in 2008. Rondo is 286,341 times better than he was in '08, and would put too much pressure on Bryant to work on defense when they need to save his legs for the other end of the court. Real dilemma for Jackson, and possibly the difference maker in the series.
Bynum on 1 leg should be fairly equal to Perkins on 2 with 1 eye on his possible suspension for a 7th tech, which, rest assured, Phil Jackson will instruct the not terribly important to their success Bynum to try and draw, even if it means picking up a few himself.
Pierce has historically obliterated Ron Artest in any game meaning more than a pre-season exhibition in October, no reason to think that won't continue. Pierce has, however, struggled at times to guard the much bigger QB native.
Kobe should, of course get the better of Ray Allen, but Ray will not be alone in defending him. In addition, this is another problem for LA, because in '08 the Lakers were able to hide Bryant for long stretches against Rondo, but there isn't a black hole for Kobe to rest on defense against. He'll either be trying to ward off Rondo, chasing Allen from end line to end line, or battling against the much bigger Pierce. Losing formula, I think.
Gasol/Garnett IS the series. For the Lakers to win this thing, Gasol has to win this match-up and win it BIG. Garnett isn't capable of scoring 20 a game in this series, and he didn't the last time out, but just by woofing it up in Gasols face for the first 3 games, he got Pau to back down. Garnett is more than capable of woofing at Pau for 7 games if necessary, and if it takes Gasol out of his game, the Lakers lose.
Odom/Farmar/Brown vs. TA/'Sheed/Baby & maybe Robinson is probably a wash, but could also be a tilting point. 'Sheed has played exceptional the last 2 weeks and if he continues that level of play alongside Baby, the Celtics front line might be better than the vaunted Lakers front line.
If pressed, I would say the Rondo factor, Kobe having to play 2 way basketball for 48 minutes, and the potential of 'Sheed/BBD providing a surprisingly superior front court would lead to a Celtics series win in 5/6. Game 1 is key. The Lakers have been playing AAU ball against the Suns and it might take them a little while to get acclimated to the physicality that the C's have been playing with for a month. That would give them the opportunity to swipe Game 1 (ala the Orlando series after they were coming off playing street ball with the Hawks). If they do, their odds of winning this series go up exponentially. If they fail to get Game 1, or if they allow the series back to LA, it will be tough to win a Game 6 or 7 or both in Staples.
Is this the 5 o'clock free crack giveaway?