EagleOutsider.com

Disclaimer* I know there is a O% chance we make the tournament this year. Just for amusement.

Currently 7-5

Dartmouth: W
NC State: L
@ VT: W
@ Wake: W (10-6, 2-1)
Miami: W
@ Maryland: L
@ UVA: L (11-8, 3-3)
UNC: W
Clemson: W
@ Miami: L
Duke: L (13-10, 5-5)
Wake: W
@ FSU: L
Maryland: W
@ Duke: L (15-12, 7-7)
@ NC State: L
UVA: W
Clemson: W
GT: W

End regular season 18-13, 10-8 in the ACC (bold wins are important victories) we have 8-10 rpi top 100 wins depending on OOC

In the ACC Tourney the BC wins their first 2 games and loses in the semis:

Finishes 20-14, (10-8 in ACC)

We then hope:
1. Providence, Auburn, Penn State have good years in their conferences to make our W's look better
2. Bryant, Harvard, College of Charleston have good years to make our L's look better
3. Weak bubble this year

What's funny is that with Jordan Daniels, I bet we beat both Bryant and CofC. Theoretically we could be looking at 10-3 going into the conference slate. At this point it doesn't matter because Joe and O are starting to settle into their roles and are playing much more consistently. These two frosh are the real deal. Anybody hear Huckaby call out Hanlan for ACC ROY during the broadcast?

The ACC is wide open right now. Aside from Duke, Maryland, and NC State, I think we can run with everybody else on any given night. I really don't think 10 wins is achievable given our size concerns and the frosh wearing down, but I don't think they win fewer than 5. 7-8 seems like a good approximation right now. If we can finish above 500 and make ANY postseason tourney, that would be huge for these guys.

Realistically, this is going to fall on Anderson and Clifford. They need to be healthy and they need to be ready. Rahon and Hanlan are carrying us right now, and we won't be able to count on lights-out shooting from Heckmann and LoJack every night. Poor Clifford is still hobbled with his knees...watching him limp around today was painful. I hope he gets better soon as there is literally no one to replace him.

After looking things over if things go right for us an NIT birth is possible. It would be a successful year

Primetime {l Wrote}:What's funny is that with Jordan Daniels, I bet we beat both Bryant and CofC.

Would that opinion change if you posit that Daniels is the starting point guard? Because that is the only way he would stay. Seeing how goodm Hanlon is makes me think that Daniels saw that he could not hold the freshman's jock.

They could just win out.

Isn't Rahon our point guard? He is the one who handles under pressure, who leads in assists, and who moves the offense with dribble penetration. Olivier is not a good passer - he is a scorer, and a good one.

It is good to dream.
They went 9-22 last year, 4-12 in conference, 5-10 in non-conference games. I think they tried to lighten the non-conference schedule a bit this year, but unfortunately 2 more conference games reduced the number of cupcake opportunities. With a win v. Dartmouth today, they should enter conference play with an 8-5 record. I thought they'd need a minium of 10 non-conference wins to be an NIT team. As with every year, they'll be a surprise ACC win you didn't expect, but I doubt they'll win every "winnable" conference game. I have a hard time thinking they'll get any better than 6 conference wins out of the 18 games. That doesn't quite get to .500, not an official NIT (or CBI) cutoff- but still a tough threshold to overcome.

floocher {l Wrote}:Isn't Rahon our point guard? He is the one who handles under pressure, who leads in assists, and who moves the offense with dribble penetration. Olivier is not a good passer - he is a scorer, and a good one.

Kind of like the Westbrook v. Rondo argument.
I think the point/lead/ "1" guard isn't defined by assists anymore, but by handling the ball and leading the offense, whether by passing or by looking to score first. Rahon definitely runs the offense on some of the plays; others he takes a spot on the wing, and Hanlan handles the ball. Lots of college offenses are set up for 2 "lead" guards, so they share the traditional point guard responsibilities. Unfortunately, the 2 freshmen are really the only legit. ball-handling guards on the team....

There's just no way this team wins 10 games in the ACC. If they got to 15 wins this year (7 ACC wins) I'd be pleased. The projection above has us beating Miami/Maryland which is absurd. Those team are going to destroy us.

EagleNYC {l Wrote}:

Primetime {l Wrote}:What's funny is that with Jordan Daniels, I bet we beat both Bryant and CofC.

Would that opinion change if you posit that Daniels is the starting point guard? Because that is the only way he would stay. Seeing how goodm Hanlon is makes me think that Daniels saw that he could not hold the freshman's jock.

It's pretty clear right now that Daniels wouldn't have started over Hanlan, but I tend to agree that Daniels and Hanlan do not play the same position.

eepstein0 {l Wrote}:There's just no way this team wins 10 games in the ACC. If they got to 15 wins this year (7 ACC wins) I'd be pleased. The projection above has us beating Miami/Maryland which is absurd. Those team are going to destroy us.

UMD has played the 3 worst teams in the country. They also have played nobody besides UK and Northwestern (maybe Stony Brook too). I'm in wait-and-see mode on them until they win a few in conference play.

eepstein0 {l Wrote}:There's just no way this team wins 10 games in the ACC. If they got to 15 wins this year (7 ACC wins) I'd be pleased. The projection above has us beating Miami/Maryland which is absurd. Those team are going to destroy us.

If we play those teams 4 times i think we can beat them at least once

joeyfenn {l Wrote}:

eepstein0 {l Wrote}:There's just no way this team wins 10 games in the ACC. If they got to 15 wins this year (7 ACC wins) I'd be pleased. The projection above has us beating Miami/Maryland which is absurd. Those team are going to destroy us.

If we play those teams 4 times i think we can beat them at least once

Reggie Johnson is out for 6 weeks with a fractured left thumb, he'll miss both games vs. BC

Some positives when compared to 13 games into last season:

FT%
Last year: 68.9%
This year: 74.1%

#1 in the ACC. Oh how I miss those FT% debates of yore. Also getting to the line a little more than last year.

We're actually shooting a little worse from 3 compared to last year (34% to 33%).

Rebounding has gone from -5 per game to +2.2, all without Clifford for much of the year. Was a little issue yesterday but on the whole nice to see it isn't volleyball for other teams anymore. Will be interesting to see as we head to conference play with this 4 guard (or 3 guard 2 forward) lineup how this progresses.

One of the best stats is A/T went from .8 to 1.1 and in the last 5 games has been 1.3.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/stattracker/experience

Interesting read. Only 3 DI teams have less experience than BC.

Primetime {l Wrote}:http://statsheet.com/mcb/stattracker/experience

Interesting read. Only 3 DI teams have less experience than BC.

All those teams have something in common, they struggle.

There's no doubt that having a full roster of experienced players would help

Michigan is #16 on the list, it all about talent, good mixture of players, coaching, health, etc...

The BC babies are learning how to compete and win, good for them.

BCEaglesFan {l Wrote}:

eepstein0 {l Wrote}:There's just no way this team wins 10 games in the ACC. If they got to 15 wins this year (7 ACC winsto) I'd be pleased. The projection aboalreadyve has us beating Miami/Maryland which is absurd. Those team are gof thoseoing to destroy us.[/quoTte]
UMD has played the 3 worst teams in the country. They also have played nobody besides UK and Northwestern (maybe Stony Brook too). I'm in wait-and-see mode on them until they win a few in conference play.

they can be .500 in ACC ... the Don has used this preseason to get his guards ready and running Anderson at the 5 gets the big dawg a chance to heal... they will be ready... They already look way better than last year. I'm counting on them winning some of those close games this year. Go Eagles

BCEaglesFan {l Wrote}:

eepstein0 {l Wrote}:There's just no way this team wins 10 games in the ACC. If they got to 15 wins this year (7 ACC winsto) I'd be pleased. The projection aboalreadyve has us beating Miami/Maryland which is absurd. Those team are gof thoseoing to destroy us.[/quoTte]
UMD has played the 3 worst teams in the country. They also have played nobody besides UK and Northwestern (maybe Stony Brook too). I'm in wait-and-see mode on them until they win a few in conference play.

they can be .500 in ACC ... the Don has used this preseason to get his guards ready and running Anderson at the 5 gets the big dawg a chance to heal... they will be ready... They already look way better than last year. I'm counting on them winning some of those close games this year. Go Eagles

The early games are important since our guards are going to hit the wall here.

Play competitive with NCST and then you've got VT/Wake on the road. If you want to go .500, you'd better start 2-1. I've seen NCST up close, they're way more talented but have a lot of Baylor in them. I don't think we'll win, but we won't lose by 20 either.

eepstein0 {l Wrote}:The early games are important since our guards are going to hit the wall here.

Play competitive with NCST and then you've got VT/Wake on the road. If you want to go .500, you'd better start 2-1. I've seen NCST up close, they're way more talented but have a lot of Baylor in them. I don't think we'll win, but we won't lose by 20 either.

I will say this now. NC State is either the worst or second worst match up on the schedule for this BC team. I don't concede they will win, but CJ Leslie and Richard Howell destroyed Clifford/Anderson last year on the board and with interior scoring. Anderson has been a better rebounder this year and we get a lot more help in that dept. by the guards but If Clifford can't play 20+ somewhat effective minutes it could get ugly (like last year). I have no reason to really think Clifford will be able to do so. I guess that part of the reason Van Nest has played zero minutes the last two games is so he is ready for about 10-15 of scrappy play and attempts at low post defense. Our perimeter shooting can mitigate the front court deficiency somewhat (one of those 40+ % three nights from Heck would go a long way).

Then there is Scott Wood... Hopefully our perimeter defense has actually come a long way. There can be no Rubin minutes in a game like this.

Agree both that NCSt is an absolute dog of a team that will choke on all of its talent, but that BC has no shot to beat them unless they are on fire and Clifford's knees are healed by then.

NC State is probably the worst matchup for BC of any ACC team. They rely on a lot of athleticism and unless BC is hitting their shots, NC State will probably smoke BC by 10.

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Agree both that NCSt is an absolute dog of a team that will choke on all of its talent, but that BC has no shot to beat them unless they are on fire and Clifford's knees are healed by then.

I could see NCST coming out totally flat. Whoever is assigned to Scott Wood needs to play no help D

Shaddix {l Wrote}:NC State is probably the worst matchup for BC of any ACC team. They rely on a lot of athleticism and unless BC is hitting their shots, NC State will probably smoke BC by 10.

Yeah, I think this is where our lack of quality depth will really hurt us. Will take a lot of energy on the defensive end to match up with their athleticism and to get defensive rebounds. Unfortunately, we don't have the bodies to bring in fresh legs when needed.

it needs to be a scoring race combined with some poor shooting. Either that or they'll surprise us and play up to the competition again.

The thing that scares me the most about NC State is that they are fairly small. All impact players are 6'9 or shorter. They are very fast and extremely athletic. Normally you would say just throw a big lineup out there, but with Clifford hurt and Caudill not ready for ACC play, BC can't do that. It doesn't help that most of their bigs play above the rim. Hopefully Clifford is ready to play meaningful minutes off the get go.

How NC State wins this game

1. Be patient on offense and move the ball around. Wait for your shots because eventually something will open up

2. On defense, play man to man. Use your athleticism to your advantage against the freshman backcourt. Play tight half court D and whatever you do, don't let BC spot up from the 3 point line.

3. Feed CJ Leslie, no one on BC can guard him. He shot 61% against BC last year.

How BC wins this game

1. Win the turnover battle. Play with active hands because NC State turns the ball over a lot for an experienced team. BC almost never wins when they lose the turnover battle. (Heckmann and Lonnie, I am talking directly to you two...if you see an open shot, just take it instead of forcing something)

2. Good transition defense, NC State will run and they aren't afraid to throw it back to Scott Wood for the trailing 3 ball (as BC found out last year).

3. Don't fall behind early, BC doesn't have the skill, health (Clifford), or experience to come back against a team like this. We are known for our sluggish starts, if this happens against NC State and we go down 10+ in the first half, no chance we win.

Bonus: Make them shoot free throws. Take good fouls if you are about to get beat. NC State is a bad free throw shooting team, they only shoot 65%

Will be interesting to see if Donahue takes the air out of the ball when we play the upper echelon of the ACC this season.

Granted I know minimal about RCC outside of the fact that they were picked to finish at the top of the ACC and tedwardo thinks they're perpetually overrated.

claver2010 {l Wrote}:Will be interesting to see if Donahue takes the air out of the ball when we play the upper echelon of the ACC this season.

Granted I know minimal about RCC outside of the fact that they were picked to finish at the top of the ACC and tedwardo thinks they're perpetually overrated.

Unfortunately, I think the overratedness is a carry-over from the Sendek and Lowe eras and that under Gottfried they are a lot closer to the hype (or at least seemed that way last year).