Official 2015 Counterweight of Optimism Thread

[dtwalrus]

Ok, so there is way too much negativity on these boards lately. Way too many “Fire the Coaches” threads and predictions of a new 7-win ceiling. It’s bullshit, and frankly I think it’s completely wrong. Luckily, since I have already destroyed my reputation on these boards over the last few weeks, I feel like I’m uniquely positioned to just give no fucks and thumb my nose at this tidal wave of pessimism.

So here it comes: a series of regular installments to balance out the negativity with optimism. I expect to be met with a lot of mockery, but fuck it. Somebody’s got to do it.

And so, the first installment:

1.) Recalling Realistic Expectations for 2015:
2015 was always going to be a development year, completely retooling the offensive line and breaking in a new QB. Nobody was expecting an ACC Championship this year or even an Atlantic Division title. Sure -- with the roster we had in preseason -- many were expecting 2015 to include a bowl game and 7 or 8 wins. Some were hoping for 9 wins and a surprising step forward from 2013 and 2014 (which had already exceeded expectations). But just as many BC fans saw that a step backwards in terms of wins-and-losses was just as likely as a step forwards this year. These were the preseason expectations and they were accepted as part of the development process for this program.

Everybody seems to have forgotten these expectations. And everybody seems to have forgotten that these reasonable preseason expectations (including the possibility of a step back in terms of wins) were based on a roster with Wade and Hilliman at the center of the offense. You’d think the injuries might incline people towards the more modest preseason expectations, but instead the midseason expectations seem to be completely ignoring the reasonable preseason possibility of only 5 wins, and instead focused only on the lost opportunities to get to 8 or 9 wins. Not to mention that had we known that we’d be without Wade and Hilliman in preseason, everyone on this board would’ve predicted 4-7 wins and been completely OK with that because, again, this is a development year. Don’t forget that.

Finally, don’t confuse the losses with a lack of development. Try to remember to separate the two. This may be an unpopular opinion, but I think that despite the losses to Wake and Duke, despite the two shutouts, despite the Flutie vs. Smith fiasco, despite everything else this team and these players are developing.

And the future still looks very bright, even for 2016. More to come…

[DavidGordonsFoot]

I expect to be met with a lot of mockery

This was the best part of your post.

GFY.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

[Irishriviera]

I agree it's WAY too early for "fire the coaches comments". And saying we are not at that point yet is not the same as saying I'm OK with a 7 win ceiling.

Addazio's teams surpassed expectations in both year 1 and year 2. In year 3, they've come up short so far and looks like they will for the season. Let's see how the rest of the year plays out. last year, 3/4 of this board wanted Don Brown fired and now they want him to take over has head coach.

Addazio needs to hire an offensive coordinator/game manager. He's done a lot of positive things. He just needs to recognize where he needs help.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

[dtwalrus]

I agree it's WAY too early for "fire the coaches comments". And saying we are not at that point yet is not the same as saying I'm OK with a 7 win ceiling.

Addazio's teams surpassed expectations in both year 1 and year 2. In year 3, they've come up short so far and looks like they will for the season. Let's see how the rest of the year plays out. last year, 3/4 of this board wanted Don Brown fired and now they want him to take over has head coach.

Addazio needs to hire an offensive coordinator/game manager. He's done a lot of positive things. He just needs to recognize where he needs help.

But again, this year was never about results. This was always a development year for the program. Always. Win totals are ancillary this year. Until as a program we're actually in a place to compete for an ACC Championship, honestly the win total is not the most important thing.

[dtwalrus]

All were good, but this was my favorite.

[dtwalrus]

Also, this is exactly what you look like in my mind, TRE. Is it you?

[twballgame9]

I agree it's WAY too early for "fire the coaches comments". And saying we are not at that point yet is not the same as saying I'm OK with a 7 win ceiling.

Addazio's teams surpassed expectations in both year 1 and year 2. In year 3, they've come up short so far and looks like they will for the season. Let's see how the rest of the year plays out. last year, 3/4 of this board wanted Don Brown fired and now they want him to take over has head coach.

Addazio needs to hire an offensive coordinator/game manager. He's done a lot of positive things. He just needs to recognize where he needs help.

But again, this year was never about results. This was always a development year for the program. Always. Win totals are ancillary this year. Until as a program we're actually in a place to compete for an ACC Championship, honestly the win total is not the most important thing.

They were in position to win the Atlantic last year.

[eagle9903]

My version of this thread was much better. You can't be diplomatic with these people walrus.

[dtwalrus]

I agree it's WAY too early for "fire the coaches comments". And saying we are not at that point yet is not the same as saying I'm OK with a 7 win ceiling.

Addazio's teams surpassed expectations in both year 1 and year 2. In year 3, they've come up short so far and looks like they will for the season. Let's see how the rest of the year plays out. last year, 3/4 of this board wanted Don Brown fired and now they want him to take over has head coach.

Addazio needs to hire an offensive coordinator/game manager. He's done a lot of positive things. He just needs to recognize where he needs help.

But again, this year was never about results. This was always a development year for the program. Always. Win totals are ancillary this year. Until as a program we're actually in a place to compete for an ACC Championship, honestly the win total is not the most important thing.

They were in position to win the Atlantic last year.

The development of this team, and any team under a new coach, is always a 3-5 year process. And considering how bad things got with Spaz, BC probably always should've been considered a 4-5 year development job. The fact that we were competitive last year doesn't change that expectation. Nowhere in the world is year 2 after a 2-10 season the year "It All Comes Together" in terms of developing a team.

We were competitive last year not because the program was done developing and suddenly a program in a position to compete for the Atlantic on an annual basis. 2014's wins and losses results and competitiveness really needs to be considered outside of the development of Daz's BC. That was a bit of a lucky set of circumstances: pretty much the last of Spaz's decent OLine classes as seniors paired with a senior game-changer QB transfer. That was Spaz's death rattle of talent combined with good OLine coaching and a great transfer. Seniors and a transfers...now all graduated. Hence the reasonable expectations that BC would take a step back this year.

Last year definitely doesn't change the fact that 2014 remains a development year for the program. Any preseason expectations of really competing for an ACC Championship in 2014 were at best based on the naive hope that all the unknown's would break BC's way, and at worst just plain silly.

[dtwalrus]

My version of this thread was much better. You can't be diplomatic with these people walrus.

Maybe not the eepstein's and the TRE's of the world, but maybe there's some quiet lurkers that we can turn off the path of despair! It's a noble fight!

[eagle9903]

My version of this thread was much better. You can't be diplomatic with these people walrus.

Maybe not the eepstein's and the TRE's of the world, but maybe there's some quiet lurkers that we can turn off the path of despair! It's a noble fight!

Well that's probably true about eepstein, he does have micropenis.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

Also, this is exactly what you look like in my mind, TRE. Is it you?

i'm less doughy and irish looking

my old avatar cuts a striking resemblance...

[Uptown Eagle]

My version of this thread was much better. You can't be diplomatic with these people walrus.

Maybe not the eepstein's and the TRE's of the world, but maybe there's some quiet lurkers that we can turn off the path of despair! It's a noble fight!

As a recently registered quiet lurker, stop. Let us despair with the rest of the board.

[Iggle]

My frustration with the Wake game (and it's really the Duke-Wake combo) is that it removed any hope that I had that Addazio could be a special coach at BC. I know some people were on that train long before I was, but I held out hope (it's more fun that way). The QB switching, the terrible clock management, the hyperconservative approach... it has me lowering my expectations for Addazio's peak at BC and that was no fun, because now it has an air of "let's just wait out his tenure and maybe the next guy will get it done."

I'm still rooting for the team and I think there will be more entertaining football while he's here, but I don't know that he's the guy to get ACC championships and the like.

[twballgame9]

My version of this thread was much better. You can't be diplomatic with these people walrus.

Maybe not the eepstein's and the TRE's of the world, but maybe there's some quiet lurkers that we can turn off the path of despair! It's a noble fight!

I used to be on your side of the fence, walrus. Can't coach is can't coach however. Guy needs to hire his Logan, stat.

[tailgater94]

I don't know where you get the idea that it takes 3-5 years for a good coach to turn things around. If the guy has a high ceiling, its evident by year 3. I'm sure there are the exceptions like a Beamer who took forever to get it going, but the vast majority of cases its evident in year 3.

[dtwalrus]

Optimism, bitches! Get some!

2.) Midseason Reality Check – The Offensive Against the Offense

The biggest source of negativity around here is the offensive struggles. For the moment, let’s forget about the “excuses”: the whole injured starting QB, the two freshman QB’s with no prior experience, the completely retooled OLine, the top RB injured, the WR’s all being either upperclassmen without great talent or underclassmen with talent but no experience, the injured punter and the two inconsistent FG kickers. Let’s forget about all those things that I just took the time to outline thoroughly and just look at what this offense has done (and what it hasn’t done).

Let’s look at scoring. Points on the board. Yes, we’ve been shutout twice. Yes, we only scored 17 against NIU and only 7 against Duke. Yes, we’re averaging 2.33 pts/game in ACC play. Yes, BC is statistically ranked “Horrible,” a newstatistical designation created just for them. But, try to remember that part of the numbers is Daz’s scheme. Part of the numbers are actually kind of intentional.

Daz intentionally shortens games. Which means even if we had Matt Ryan and the ’07 offense in place, we probably wouldn’t see any 40pt games, probably not even many 30pt games. Daz’s offenses are about getting a lead and taking control. With a great offense we’d probably see a lot of 27-10, 21-6, 17-10 type wins. That’s what Daz aims for. I’m not saying this is a good strategy or a bad strategy, I’m just saying that part of our low scoring offense is Daz’s intentional strategy.

Additionally, Daz is intentionally keeping THIS offense EXTRA conservative because he’s trying to win with defense and field position. When you have one of the best defenses in the nation and a shaky offense, there is a legitimate strategy to letting your defense win you short fields and doing your best to prevent the offense from putting your defense in a bad situation. It’s a legitimate strategy and maybe even the best strategy for this current BC team. It’s really almost worked for BC this year. I know ”could’ve’s” are stupid, but Daz’s intentionally conservative, no mistakes, win field possession and time of possession offense while the defense dominates and creates opportunities approach has been good enough to keep us in every game. Making make-able FG’s would’ve won us Duke and Wake. Not giving up a fumble for a TD and catching just a handful of breaks at the end of the FSU game might’ve turned that game. Daz’s intentional strategy has kept us in every game. But forget about whether this is a good or bad strategy for a moment and just remind yourself the next time you want to destroy your tv when you see a BC score total go by on the ESPN scroll that Daz’s intentional strategy is part of why the scoring numbers are so low.

There is no reason to base future expectations of a Daz/Fitch offense on the the score totals from this year. Yes, we will probably always try to strategically shorten games. But we don’t have any evidence to suggest that the offense will always play not to lose. In fact, we have already seen a lot of creativity and aggressiveness out of Daz offenses. I know the theme around here is that all the credit for the ’14 offense goes to Ryan Day, but what about the fact that the ’14 team had a great OLine, a competent QB and a good stable of backs. It was an offense that Daz trusted to win games and so that’s why Day had license to be aggressive. Don’t forget that this is probably a trough year in terms of offensive talent – with upperclassmen Spaz recruits (recruited in the latter Spaz years, when the team was dreadful and the recruiting dipped even further) and underclassmen Daz recruits. And it’s definitely a trough in terms of starting experience. With the better quality of offensive personnel in the years ahead there’s every reason to assume that we’ll see an offense that will be significantly more aggressive.

If you accept that part of the terrible scoring numbers is the direct result of an intentional game plan, I think the low scoring and general sense of offensive ineptitude becomes a lot easier to stomach. Then if you do take that mindset AND you remind yourself of all of the actually legitimate limitations of this offense (i.e. the “excuses”) then the overwhelming pessimism and negativity starts to become totally off-the-wall.

And all of this is just focusing on the results of the offense. We haven’t even started talking about the development we’re seeing in 2015.

Remember that this was always (and remains) a development year!

[dtwalrus]

I don't know where you get the idea that it takes 3-5 years for a good coach to turn things around. If the guy has a high ceiling, its evident by year 3. I'm sure there are the exceptions like a Beamer who took forever to get it going, but the vast majority of cases its evident in year 3.

Look at the 2010, 2011, and 2012 recruiting classes. Those are our upperclassmen. There are a few really good ones, but not nearly as many as there should be. Even if you say the average rebuild should be on track by year 3, I'm not sure the BC rebuild from Spaz fits the average mold.

[tailgater94]

I don't know where you get the idea that it takes 3-5 years for a good coach to turn things around. If the guy has a high ceiling, its evident by year 3. I'm sure there are the exceptions like a Beamer who took forever to get it going, but the vast majority of cases its evident in year 3.

Look at the 2010, 2011, and 2012 recruiting classes. Those are our upperclassmen. There are a few really good ones, but not nearly as many as there should be. Even if you say the average rebuild should be on track by year 3, I'm not sure the BC rebuild from Spaz fits the average mold.

Irrespective of prior recruiting classes, strength of schedule, and any other excuse, if the guy has a high ceiling in the vast majority of cases its evident by year 3. The good coaches find a way to get it done. A better coach would have not effed up the WF game, would have guided us to wins vs Duke, we'd be sitting at 5-1 and not worried about prior recruiting classes

[dtwalrus]

3.) Midseason Reality Check – The Defense

You want reason for optimism? You want a reason to keep tuning in to games? Look no further. This defense is so amazing, but I’m not even sure it’s getting enough credit around these parts.
Everyone knows they’re shutting down teams. Everyone knows they’re leading the nation statistically. And everyone knows they’re the only reason we’re in games. But there’s so much more to it.

The front seven has taken a huge step forward, even from last year, and are doing it with less gimmick and more talent and solid play. Last year BC confounded offenses with lots of different looks and shifts and lots of blitzes. But this year, by and large, we’re doing it with 4-man rushes. This isn’t a Don Brown gimmick defense right now. This is just an amazing front seven plugging gaps and blowing up the OLine. And look at who’s doing it! I love Mehdi! He’s great! He’s dominating when he’s out there. But as a senior, he’s not even the starter! Because Harold Landry and Kevin Kavelec are that fucking good as sophomores. Love it.

The defensive backs are probably the best we’ve seen in decades at BC. You want proof? The cushion is dead. It’s mother-fucking dead! How often do you see a cushion when we lineup? Rarely! We’re up at the line, bumping receivers, getting physical, and then running step for step with them. Our DB’s ran step-for-step with FSU wideouts! SPEEEEEEEEEEEED, motherfuckers! And young SPEEEEEEEEED at that! It’s only going to get better.

I think some people around here still aren’t giving this defense enough credit. Hell, I’ve even joked about the statistics being skewed. You see the numbers and you look at the opponents, you see Maine, Howard, NIU, Duke and Wake and you think “Of course the D looks good.” But that’s bullshit, because it’s not just the numbers! It’s how we’re playing on defense! This defense is a total 180 from the scheme we’re used to and it’s just outright dominant.

And this defense is still so, so, so young! And remember, 2015 has always been and will continue to be a developmental year.

[eagle9903]

I don't know where you get the idea that it takes 3-5 years for a good coach to turn things around. If the guy has a high ceiling, its evident by year 3. I'm sure there are the exceptions like a Beamer who took forever to get it going, but the vast majority of cases its evident in year 3.

Look at the 2010, 2011, and 2012 recruiting classes. Those are our upperclassmen. There are a few really good ones, but not nearly as many as there should be. Even if you say the average rebuild should be on track by year 3, I'm not sure the BC rebuild from Spaz fits the average mold.

Irrespective of prior recruiting classes, strength of schedule, and any other excuse, if the guy has a high ceiling in the vast majority of cases its evident by year 3. The good coaches find a way to get it done. A better coach would have not effed up the WF game, would have guided us to wins vs Duke, we'd be sitting at 5-1 and not worried about prior recruiting classes

Is there support for the three years to show good coaching premise? That feels kind of arbitrary to me.

[twballgame9]

I don't know where you get the idea that it takes 3-5 years for a good coach to turn things around. If the guy has a high ceiling, its evident by year 3. I'm sure there are the exceptions like a Beamer who took forever to get it going, but the vast majority of cases its evident in year 3.

This is looking at things in a vacuum. Aspaziano delayed the inevitable rebuild with Spaz's one good class and 5th year transfers. We always knew the offense was going to have a tough year, just not this fucking tough. That said, now that we know that the D is rebuilt, a good coach escapes this rebuild year with 7-8 wins, regardless of injuries. You almost have to be a complete idiot not to be 5-1 right now with this D.

[dtwalrus]

I don't know where you get the idea that it takes 3-5 years for a good coach to turn things around. If the guy has a high ceiling, its evident by year 3. I'm sure there are the exceptions like a Beamer who took forever to get it going, but the vast majority of cases its evident in year 3.

This is looking at things in a vacuum. Aspaziano delayed the inevitable rebuild with Spaz's one good class and 5th year transfers. We always knew the offense was going to have a tough year, just not this fucking tough. That said, now that we know that the D is rebuilt, a good coach escapes this rebuild year with 7-8 wins, regardless of injuries. You almost have to be a complete idiot not to be 5-1 right now with this D.

Or you have to lose your starting QB and have to rely on a 2* QB recruit and a 3* ATH recruit under center with no college experience. You also lose your starting RB. Oh, and then on top of all of that, you actually do enough to win 5 games out of the first 6, only to see the refs take back an obvious TD against Duke and your FG kicker miss 4 potentially game-winning FG's.

[twballgame9]

I don't know where you get the idea that it takes 3-5 years for a good coach to turn things around. If the guy has a high ceiling, its evident by year 3. I'm sure there are the exceptions like a Beamer who took forever to get it going, but the vast majority of cases its evident in year 3.

This is looking at things in a vacuum. Aspaziano delayed the inevitable rebuild with Spaz's one good class and 5th year transfers. We always knew the offense was going to have a tough year, just not this fucking tough. That said, now that we know that the D is rebuilt, a good coach escapes this rebuild year with 7-8 wins, regardless of injuries. You almost have to be a complete idiot not to be 5-1 right now with this D.

Or you have to lose your starting QB and have to rely on a 2* QB recruit and a 3* ATH recruit under center with no college experience. You also lose your starting RB. Oh, and then on top of all of that, you actually do enough to win 5 games out of the first 6, only to see the refs take back an obvious TD against Duke and your FG kicker miss 4 potentially game-winning FG's.

Stop. No QB or PK in division 1 is an excuse for an offense to be this fucking horrible. If they are, you suck balls at recruiting QBs and PKs. I'd suggest the coaching just sucks. Either way, not an excuse.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

the only excuse for the guy at this point is that he had his head smashed into too many turnbuckles and he suffers from short term memory loss and inability to manage clocks or games

[dtwalrus]

I don't know where you get the idea that it takes 3-5 years for a good coach to turn things around. If the guy has a high ceiling, its evident by year 3. I'm sure there are the exceptions like a Beamer who took forever to get it going, but the vast majority of cases its evident in year 3.

This is looking at things in a vacuum. Aspaziano delayed the inevitable rebuild with Spaz's one good class and 5th year transfers. We always knew the offense was going to have a tough year, just not this fucking tough. That said, now that we know that the D is rebuilt, a good coach escapes this rebuild year with 7-8 wins, regardless of injuries. You almost have to be a complete idiot not to be 5-1 right now with this D.

Or you have to lose your starting QB and have to rely on a 2* QB recruit and a 3* ATH recruit under center with no college experience. You also lose your starting RB. Oh, and then on top of all of that, you actually do enough to win 5 games out of the first 6, only to see the refs take back an obvious TD against Duke and your FG kicker miss 4 potentially game-winning FG's.

Stop. No QB or PK in division 1 is an excuse for an offense to be this fucking horrible. If they are, you suck balls at recruiting QBs and PKs. I'd suggest the coaching just sucks. Either way, not an excuse.

Regardless, 2015 has always been and remains a developmental year.