2001Eagle {l Wrote}:Dick Rosenthal {l Wrote}:2001Eagle {l Wrote}:I suspect this isn’t just a one time play by the SEC. NFL had 16 billion in revenue in 2019. NCAA division 1 football had 4 billion and change. The NIL ruling means any pretense of amateurism is dead. I think this is the first step towards creating the “AAA” of the NFL. The top 24 teams in college football can have their own league and capture 90% of the college football revenue. Heck - they can have their own playoff and crown a national champion.
Even with the steep GOR/penalty for leaving a conference, if say-Clemson—effectively becomes an NFL minor league franchise, then the value of that program is at least 400-500 million I’d guess.
I think you overestimate the value of Clemson, Alabama, LSU. If this becomes a purely professional league, then the marquis franchises, in terms of wealth generation and conversely the ability to go load up payroll are Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Michigan and Ohio State. Amongst the SEC, Vanderbilt has money on hand that literally dwarfs the combined cash on hand of Bama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia, and Georgia will have the added problem of having its much wealthier rival Georgia Tech cutting them to pieces.
Basically, A&M, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, USC and Ohio State are the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers and the SEC outside of A&M and Vandy, are the Royals/Brewers. And once having zero academic standards and tradition and prestige get crushed by cold hard cash, then whatever power those schools have in the new universe is gone as well.
Hell, with better leadership, in a straight cash play, we’d be in better shape than any of the aforementioned Baby Rapist schools. We couldn’t punch with the aforementioned wealthy powerhouses, but we could be high midmarket—the Phillies/Nationals/Braves level.
As is your wont, I think you’re getting it wrong. Cash on hand really doesn’t matter. If you get into the super conference, your value rises.
Not at all. If there is one thing I do understand its valuation of assets. Respectfully, because I think it is an interesting conversation and I don't want to shit all over you with respect to something you don't do professionally, you make the classic mistake (one that a lot of far more experienced people who do this for a living do as well) of ascribing goodwill value to a product in a rapidly and radically changing market. In those instances, it is always smart to look at cash on hand, as it is the only constant value.
Let's take Alabama by way of example. Let's also keep Saban part of the equation in terms of valuation even if he is turning 70 this year. What are Alabama's advantages as a program? They have a historically successful coach/CEO, tradition/name recognition, a complete absence of academic standards or commitment to the student athlete outside of the one year scholarship term (grey shirting, running kids off), a willingness to pay players under the table, proximity to talent, a lack of competition within their market space from local professional sports teams for casual fan attention, an excellent physical plant in terms of facilities, and a commitment to football excellence at the expense of other considerations in the current market place.
What are their weaknesses as a program? A relatively poor alumni and fan base. Dependency on a strong conference to drive revenue in the complete absence of a valuable, local media market. Tapped out in terms of available resources vis a vis key competitors as market conditions change.
Okay. Now let's look at the advantages in where the market is heading. Once college football becomes the professional league it is devolving into, the complete lack of academic standards, the payment of players under the table, the commitment to football excellence at the expense of reputation, etc. all go away. I suspect that political considerations/pressure will prevent the creation of a 24 team super league, which frankly would be the only Alabama could generate the cash flow to compete with the wealthier schools mentioned earlier. proximity to talent doesn't matter as much when players are all getting paid. The kid who wants to stay in the south to be close to mama is less likely to care about that if tOSU, USC, etc. can pay him two or three times what he will make at Bama. All you are really left with is a geriatric exceptional coach, a currently excellent physical plant, and tradition--although that tradition was built in an entirely different market.
What disadvantages remain. Poor alumni base and casual fan base. Small media market. Complete dependency on conference to drive revenue. A lack of available capital to invest in the program--even if the SEC TV revenue increases in the short term, while this thing devolves into the professional league of 4 super conferences (the only outcome that will avoid political road blocks) with paid players, the value of the SEC brand diminishes when USC or tOSU or Notre Dame or Texas drive up the cost of players and are able to take talent that would normally be locked into the SEC elsewhere. As talent disperses across the super conferences, the other conferences are all putting out a similar product and enjoying the same revenue streams as the SEC, with the aforementioned wealthier schools also tossing in money that the SEC can't match.
Anyway, it might take a few years to shake out, although I suspect it will be faster than anyone thinks, but at this point the long term valuation for the SEC baby rapists or Clemson doesn't look very good vis a vis the competition. In truth, they look like Hewlett-Packard in the late 70s just before the technology market shifted under their feet or a GM or Ford in the late 60s. Great right now, but not looking good in the long term.