How Notre Dame fits in the ACC
Ryan McGee
"I couldn't really hear the question..."
As ACC commissioner John Swofford said it, he smiled slyly at Caulton Tudor. The longtime News & Observer columnist and Tobacco Road's poet laureate had just taken his turn at the commissioner's annual ACC Football Kickoff press conference and the question was very simple.
Would Notre Dame ever be a part of the ACC?
Swofford, as always, handled the topic with polite strength. After drawing a round of laughter with his response, he merely reminded that he doesn't comment on schools outside of his conference (at least not when it comes to realignment).
Yes, Notre Dame hasn't won a national title since 1988. Yes, they've still never won a BCS bowl. But yes, they are also still the only stand-alone team that gets a seat at the college football power meetings, sitting alongside conferences.
Now those conferences want them on board, whether those leagues will admit it publicly or not. Why? Because the golden ND is still one of the few genuinely national brands in collegiate sports. They are the last big fish not already in a BCS conference pond.
Texas AD (and unofficial Big 12 commissioner) DeLoss Dodds has admitted to courting the Irish. The Big Ten membership has never been shy about coveting the only school in the region that they don't already have, though only behind closed doors. Commissioner Jim Delany went out of his way to shoot down such chatter last fall.
But the best fit would appear to be the ACC. It actually makes a lot of sense. I'm not alone on this. (For one, ask our very own Notre Dame blogger extraordinaire Matt Fortuna. And while he was very quick to laugh off the question at first, Swofford himself softened his stance before he was finished. After carefully repeating that he is perfectly happy with fourteen member schools, he said, "They (Notre Dame) are very committed to independence."
But then he added, "Whether that changes down the road, we'll have to wait and see."
How would it work? Let us count the ways.
Reason No. 1: They fit into the ACC's new map
The idea of such a pairing became even more logical after the league's most recent raid of the Big East, an expansion that now gives the ACC ownership of the entire Eastern Seaboard, covering nine contiguous states, from Florida to Upstate New York. Notre Dame may be located in Indiana, but it has now and will always play like an eastern school, with a massive New York and New England fan base and an already-established pipeline in the Carolinas and Florida.
Reason No. 2: Adapting to the ACC schedule wouldn't be bad
When the conference reboots as a 14-team league in 2014, it will go to a nine-game conference schedule. For the Irish, that would mean sacrificing some of its rivalries, but not all, and certainly not the two that mean the most -- USC and Michigan. They would likely have to lose series such as Purdue, Michigan State, or Army. They could rotate those, or just stick with Navy, whom they have played annually since 1927, the longest continuous series in college football.
But they would be given the opportunity to strengthen the series with Boston College and even Georgia Tech, whom they played regularly between 1922 and 1981 but were forced to disband when the Yellow Jackets joined the ACC.
In the end, a melding of what Notre Dame has now with what it would have in the ACC could create a perfect postseason selection committee storm -- a BCS-level conference championship won while also enduring inarguable non-conference strength of schedule.
Reason No. 3: Their relationship is solid and getting stronger
Notre Dame will play three ACC schools this season, as they did last year. They are already reportedly talking with the ACC about a potential Orange Bowl partnership, a la Big Ten/Pac-12 and SEC/Big 12 (Swofford only acknowledges talking over "several different scenarios"). And during this summer's postseason playoff meetings, Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick and Swofford were allies in a room that was balanced along multiple, taut battle lines.
Reason No. 4: Their independence is only semi-independence
The nature of their oft-proudly stated independence is to also be aligned with a conference. Namely the Big East, in which Notre Dame has long competed in every sport but football (also hockey and fencing, but the conference doesn't sanction those sport). They have also entered into agreements with Big East-tied bowl games that made the Fighting Irish a de facto Big East option.
"This is their perfect fit," an ACC member athletic department administrator said in the hallway after Swofford's comments. "They would walk right in the door fitting the profile of an ACC school, academically and athletically. We can offer everything the Big East ever did. But the difference here is that we have more to offer when it comes to football, too."
Reason No. 5: The ACC is not the weakling you think it is
The Big East is a listing vessel. The ACC, despite internet persistence to the contrary, is not. Not even close. Anyone who listened to Swofford on Sunday (and saw how he bristled at the suggestion) should realize that. "We're awesome" hyperbole is a preseason media day staple. But laying out facts such as eight bowl ties, a new 12-year agreement with the Orange, a media agreement with ESPN through 2026-27, the ACC Championship Game's success in Charlotte, and the hurried-up addition of Syracuse and Pitt ... well, that's more than blowing smoke. Yes, they need to start winning games against other BCS opponents. And they really need to start winning bowl games. But couldn't you say the same about Notre Dame?
Reason No. 6: 'Independent' can no longer hang with conference cash
On Sunday night another ACC administrator quickly spoke up on the Notre Dame topic, specifically "the myth that they bring so much more money than the rest of us".
"They simply can't hold out forever because the money won't let them," he added. "This isn't 1990 anymore."
That was the year that Notre Dame did their unprecedented TV deal with NBC Sports, who agreed to televise every Irish home game for the then-astronomical sum of $38 million over five years. Over the last two decades that deal has grown monetarily and expanded to include neutral site prime time games. But as the team has struggled - as has NBC's overall programming and ratings have steadily declined. Their current deal is inked through 2015, estimated at around $15 million per season (former head coach Charlie Weiss's buyout was $18 million). NBC, now buoyed by the new NBC Sports cable channel, appears to want to re-up. But can they match what else might be out there?
The ACC's newly-renewed deal with ESPN is worth $3.6 billion, a payout of around $17 million per school. That deal was restructured after only one year of a previous deal, thanks to a clause that was triggered by the addition of the Orange and Panthers. If Notre Dame -- and presumably another school -- joined, then there would be another opportunity to restructure for more cash.
Keep in mind that this is all before the new playoff postseason chuck wagon rolls in, a deal that hasn't even started the process of entertaining network bids. Estimated at $300-400 million per year, there will be plenty of money to go around and that money is likely to be more evenly distributed than BCS money ever was.
Assuming that Notre Dame would get a full conference's share of that future postseason payout would be misguided. They haven't had that for a long time now. In the original BCS agreement Notre Dame received a yearly check for upwards of $14 million, the same as if it were a 12-team conference. But that was restructured in 2006. If they qualify for a BCS bowl, which they haven't since '07, they receive around $6.5 million. When they don't qualify for a BCS bowl, they get $1 million.
The ACC is preparing to go shopping for post-BCS Orange Bowl TV rights, but as Swofford said, "You can't get too far down the road until you've completed the discussions of the opponent on the other side." An agreement with Notre Dame would likely make that a lucrative trip. But would it produce more revenue if they were that opponent, or a member?
It's a question that both sides will be forced to ask.
"The timing of it all will be curious," the ACC AD continued. "Syracuse and Pitt join the conference in 2013. The new playoff starts in 2014. Notre Dame's deal with NBC is up in 2015. Feels like dominos doesn't it?"
It also feels like a perfect fit.
