EagleOutsider.com

Posted: **Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:11 am**

Prior to the Spaz debacle, I used to apporach every game as "We should win this game." After watching this team for the last two months, the way they've played against Clemson and FSU, AND the way the rest of the ACC seems to self imploding, we should win at least 5 of the next 6. Virginia Tech is the only one that will be tough and I'll put that in the "We could win" category.

Posted: **Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:42 am**

BC should win at least 6 games. That hasn't changed since the beginning of the season. If anything, it has just become more obvious. Their record right now is exactly where I expected it to be, and the performances against FSU and Clemson lead me to conclude that they are going to show up ready to play against everyone.
'
"6-6, no more, no less" is now "if they get real lucky they could win 7-8, but they are probably going to win 6." As epstein said, the rest of their schedule is dog shit. BC is in that group, but they are playing better defense than those teams, can grind it out on the ground, and have a senior QB.

There's no transitive property in college football, but after seeing future opponents against FSU and Clemson, I like their chances to be pretty good.

And yes, next year is going to be tough. Utterly irrelevant to what they do this year.

Posted: **Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:54 am**

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:'
"6-6, no more, no less"

if they win on saturday, will wee see a repeat of the 2:50 mark of this video?

Posted: **Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:44 am**

TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:'
"6-6, no more, no less"

if they win on saturday, will wee see a repeat of the 2:50 mark of this video?

A "NSFW" at the 2:50 mark would have been helpful. Come on man!!!

Posted: **Tue Oct 15, 2013 11:54 am**

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:BC should win at least 6 games. That hasn't changed since the beginning of the season. If anything, it has just become more obvious. Their record right now is exactly where I expected it to be, and the performances against FSU and Clemson lead me to conclude that they are going to show up ready to play against everyone.
'
"6-6, no more, no less" is now "if they get real lucky they could win 7-8, but they are probably going to win 6." As epstein said, the rest of their schedule is dog shit. BC is in that group, but they are playing better defense than those teams, can grind it out on the ground, and have a senior QB.

There's no transitive property in college football, but after seeing future opponents against FSU and Clemson, I like their chances to be pretty good.

And yes, next year is going to be tough. Utterly irrelevant to what they do this year.

I agree with all of this, especially that 6 wins is the most likely outcome. We've played our best against the best competition, but football isn't linear in that sense. I think we're going to learn a lot more about this team as they play teams in the "dog shit" category. There is probably an 80% chance they go 2-4, 3-3 or 4-2. There is a much higher chance that they close out 5-1 as opposed to 1-5. With that said, every team hits bumps in the road (injuries, a rash of turnovers, terrible bad luck) and so far BC has not encountered that. As a BC fan, maybe I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop, and half expect a real stinker at some point.

The team is playing with fire and energy and they are fun to watch. Hopefully the week off serves them well and they knock around a below average tar heel squad.

Posted: **Tue Oct 15, 2013 3:46 pm**

EagleNYC {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:BC should win at least 6 games. That hasn't changed since the beginning of the season. If anything, it has just become more obvious. Their record right now is exactly where I expected it to be, and the performances against FSU and Clemson lead me to conclude that they are going to show up ready to play against everyone.
'
"6-6, no more, no less" is now "if they get real lucky they could win 7-8, but they are probably going to win 6." As epstein said, the rest of their schedule is dog shit. BC is in that group, but they are playing better defense than those teams, can grind it out on the ground, and have a senior QB.

There's no transitive property in college football, but after seeing future opponents against FSU and Clemson, I like their chances to be pretty good.

And yes, next year is going to be tough. Utterly irrelevant to what they do this year.

I agree with all of this, especially that 6 wins is the most likely outcome. We've played our best against the best competition, but football isn't linear in that sense. I think we're going to learn a lot more about this team as they play teams in the "dog shit" category. There is probably an 80% chance they go 2-4, 3-3 or 4-2. There is a much higher chance that they close out 5-1 as opposed to 1-5. With that said, every team hits bumps in the road (injuries, a rash of turnovers, terrible bad luck) and so far BC has not encountered that. As a BC fan, maybe I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop, and half expect a real stinker at some point.

The team is playing with fire and energy and they are fun to watch. Hopefully the week off serves them well and they knock around a below average tar heel squad.

The bye week and UNC underachieving are what make me believe we can beat them. Having two weeks to prepare makes me feel good and I recall Daz saying after FSU that they would be looking to open up the playbook even more and give the second half teams even more new looks. I think they will save their best for Virginia Tech, but it will be interesting to see what we come up with for UNC.

I will feel comfortable saying 6-6, 7-5 if we beat UNC and I really expect that we should. But what makes college football better than the pros (IMHO) is the non-linearity that you mention. Who knos, maybe Brynn Renner will remember how to play football in two weeks.

Posted: **Tue Oct 15, 2013 4:54 pm**

eagle216 {l Wrote}:
TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:'
"6-6, no more, no less"

if they win on saturday, will wee see a repeat of the 2:50 mark of this video?

A "NSFW" at the 2:50 mark would have been helpful. Come on man!!!

That was Riley Skinner's last game vs. BC. What the hell else were you expecting?

Posted: **Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:07 pm**

this is why we can't have the philly intern anymore

Posted: **Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:35 am**

7 wins is possible but highly optimistic.
I do feel good about 6 wins though... Anything less than that would be a kick in the nuts (barring injuries). How could it not be?

Here's the sagarin pure points as of 10/19. home field is worth 3.84

Virginia Tech 80.20
@ Maryland 70.82+3.84= 74.66
@ Syracuse 66.81+3.84= 70.65
Boston College 70.65
@ North Carolina 70.24+3.84= 74.08
NC State 65.6
@ New Mexico State 43.93+3.84=47.77

Which implies we'll be within +9.5 VPI (L), +4 MD (L), EVEN Cuse (?), +3.5 NC (L), -5 NC State (W), -22.5 NMSU (W).

Syracuse looks extremely close at the moment. fwiw, The ELO model currently has them a 1 point favorite.

Posted: **Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:11 am**

Does this account for both of MD's WRs getting broken?

Posted: **Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:23 am**

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Does this account for both of MD's WRs getting broken?

close. the response we were looking for was "SHUT UP, HANSEN!!!! "

Posted: **Mon Oct 21, 2013 1:32 pm**

TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Does this account for both of MD's WRs getting broken?

close. the response we were looking for was "SHUT UP, HANSEN!!!! "

"Good Content Hanson!"

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 6:34 am**

Are we seeing why they ran the Dazzler out of Florida?

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:12 am**

Glad we're keeping the game-by-game gut reaction as to whether Addazio is a "home run" or a "bust" going. We'd be great as a board on a ESPN talking head show.

Aaron Rodgers is more NOW, btw. Beards are next.

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:19 am**

this is all part of the storyline... project the down program so that we can sneak into wrestlemania CXC as the huge underdog and then surprise the world by leaving maryland on their backs at midfield while we slip out the steel cage door as the victors

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 9:12 am**

Keep Calm - Addazio will be great coach for this program - will take a few years - but he will make the Eagles rise from Spaz's ashes

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 11:49 am**

NotoriousOrange {l Wrote}:Keep Calm - Addazio will be great coach for this program - will take a few years - but he will make the Eagles rise from Spaz's ashes

remember when we said the same thing about beeker? now only the w3ird0s continue with that party line...

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 11:55 am**

TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
NotoriousOrange {l Wrote}:Keep Calm - Addazio will be great coach for this program - will take a few years - but he will make the Eagles rise from Spaz's ashes

remember when we said the same thing about beeker? now only the w3ird0s continue with that party line...

In fairness, Beeker is likely to win 20-23 games this season.

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 11:57 am**

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
NotoriousOrange {l Wrote}:Keep Calm - Addazio will be great coach for this program - will take a few years - but he will make the Eagles rise from Spaz's ashes

remember when we said the same thing about beeker? now only the w3ird0s continue with that party line...

In fairness, Beeker is likely to win 20-23 games this season.

remember when we said addzaio would win 7 or 8 games this year...

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 11:58 am**

TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
NotoriousOrange {l Wrote}:Keep Calm - Addazio will be great coach for this program - will take a few years - but he will make the Eagles rise from Spaz's ashes

remember when we said the same thing about beeker? now only the w3ird0s continue with that party line...

In fairness, Beeker is likely to win 20-23 games this season.

remember when we said addzaio would win 7 or 8 games this year...

I still think they may win 7, but I have been solid in my pick of 6-6, through good and bad. They are allowed a stinker or two.

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 12:22 pm**

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
NotoriousOrange {l Wrote}:Keep Calm - Addazio will be great coach for this program - will take a few years - but he will make the Eagles rise from Spaz's ashes

remember when we said the same thing about beeker? now only the w3ird0s continue with that party line...

In fairness, Beeker is likely to win 20-23 games this season.

remember when we said addzaio would win 7 or 8 games this year...

I still think they may win 7, but I have been solid in my pick of 6-6, through good and bad. They are allowed a stinker or two.

I think football getting to 7 is not all that far fetched at all

Posted: **Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:16 pm**

getting a little worried about 6 wins...

Here's the sagarin pure points as of 10/26. home field is worth 3.81

Virginia Tech 78.62
@ Maryland 70.28+3.81= 74.09
@ Syracuse 66.49+3.81= 70.30
Boston College 68.31
NC State 65.94
@ New Mexico State 42.64+3.81=46.45

Which implies we'll be within +10.5 VPI (L), +6 MD (L), +2.5 Cuse (L), -2.5 NC State (W), -22.5 NMSU (W).

Posted: **Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:30 pm**

hansen {l Wrote}:getting a little worried about 6 wins...

Here's the sagarin pure points as of 10/26. home field is worth 3.81

Virginia Tech 78.62
@ Maryland 70.28+3.81= 74.09
@ Syracuse 66.49+3.81= 70.30
Boston College 68.31
NC State 65.94
@ New Mexico State 42.64+3.81=46.45

Which implies we'll be within +10.5 VPI (L), +6 MD (L), +2.5 Cuse (L), -2.5 NC State (W), -22.5 NMSU (W).

Does this week's Sagarin account for the fact that MD's WRs all have broken legs?

Posted: **Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:33 pm**

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
hansen {l Wrote}:getting a little worried about 6 wins...

Here's the sagarin pure points as of 10/26. home field is worth 3.81

Virginia Tech 78.62
@ Maryland 70.28+3.81= 74.09
@ Syracuse 66.49+3.81= 70.30
Boston College 68.31
NC State 65.94
@ New Mexico State 42.64+3.81=46.45

Which implies we'll be within +10.5 VPI (L), +6 MD (L), +2.5 Cuse (L), -2.5 NC State (W), -22.5 NMSU (W).

Does this week's Sagarin account for the fact that MD's WRs all have broken legs?

leave albert pooholes alone. you have him in the baseball forum so let him have his way here

Posted: **Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:48 pm**

TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
hansen {l Wrote}:getting a little worried about 6 wins...

Here's the sagarin pure points as of 10/26. home field is worth 3.81

Virginia Tech 78.62
@ Maryland 70.28+3.81= 74.09
@ Syracuse 66.49+3.81= 70.30
Boston College 68.31
NC State 65.94
@ New Mexico State 42.64+3.81=46.45

Which implies we'll be within +10.5 VPI (L), +6 MD (L), +2.5 Cuse (L), -2.5 NC State (W), -22.5 NMSU (W).

Does this week's Sagarin account for the fact that MD's WRs all have broken legs?

leave albert pooholes alone. you have him in the baseball forum so let him have his way here

My bad. That just couldn't be ignored. Can I ask him what the Sagarin ratings say about Game 6?

Posted: **Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:55 pm**

i thnk that's a fair question.

:ralph

Posted: **Wed Oct 30, 2013 3:42 pm**

eepstein0 {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
NotoriousOrange {l Wrote}:Keep Calm - Addazio will be great coach for this program - will take a few years - but he will make the Eagles rise from Spaz's ashes

remember when we said the same thing about beeker? now only the w3ird0s continue with that party line...

In fairness, Beeker is likely to win 20-23 games this season.

remember when we said addzaio would win 7 or 8 games this year...

I still think they may win 7, but I have been solid in my pick of 6-6, through good and bad. They are allowed a stinker or two.

I think football getting to 7 is not all that far fetched at all

Unless they can figure out how to win a road game, 5 wins seems the best we can hope for. haven't won a road game in 2 years boys!

Posted: **Sat Nov 02, 2013 3:07 pm**

westcoastbernie {l Wrote}:
eepstein0 {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
TobaccoRoadEagle {l Wrote}:
NotoriousOrange {l Wrote}:Keep Calm - Addazio will be great coach for this program - will take a few years - but he will make the Eagles rise from Spaz's ashes

remember when we said the same thing about beeker? now only the w3ird0s continue with that party line...

In fairness, Beeker is likely to win 20-23 games this season.

remember when we said addzaio would win 7 or 8 games this year...

I still think they may win 7, but I have been solid in my pick of 6-6, through good and bad. They are allowed a stinker or two.

I think football getting to 7 is not all that far fetched at all

Unless they can figure out how to win a road game, 5 wins seems the best we can hope for. haven't won a road game in 2 years boys!

We have 3 road losses this year, two of which were to USC and Clemson. Next week the road monkey comes off our back.

Posted: **Sat Nov 02, 2013 3:51 pm**

Huge win at home in front of the fans.

Posted: **Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:49 pm**

More sagarin predictions here:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=14013&p=366440#p366440

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