can we talk sox here for a second?

[bignick33]

We are witnessing a wonderful example of the difference between regular season and playoff baseball. The Red Sox are having a dream season, steamrolling with near perfection (Youk and Crawford being exceptions). Until Clay's injury they had avoided major injuries (Lester missed 3 starts or so, but that's really nothing). They are destroying teams. At the same time, the Yankees have a rotation held together by duct tape, with retreads and a rookie filling out 3-5 (accepting that Hughes is probably spent and will be replaced by Nova). And 107 games into the season they are separated by one game. Pretty remarkable.

But now handicap those two teams in the playoffs. In my estimation, I'd put the Sox at about 2-1 to come out of the AL, with Yankees at 8-1. Starting pitching is the name of the game, and while the Yankees have been very lucky, I have no confidence in their ability to win a playoff series.

In fairness, the Red Sox spent the entirety of July starting guys like Andrew Miller, Alfredo Aceves, Kyle Weiland, and John Lackey (6+ ERA and shitty attitude and all). The reason they went 20-6 that month was because they mash as you mentioned and because they played mostly shitty teams. But, despite the gaudy record, they're not actually playing great right now and have their share of personnel issues. They will coast to the playoffs, but unless they get a third starter squared away, I'd say the Rangers are the favorite to come out of the AL. I would agree with you that at this point in time, the Red Sox would be a strong favorite against the Yankees in a seven game series, but they still have some issues in the rotation to square away. Neither team has the strong 3 man rotation that is typically needed to succeed in the playoffs.

[twballgame9]

It doesn't take 3 starters to make the Series. Most teams do it with two very good ones and a great bullpen.

That said, even with Buchholz unavailable (as I assume he will be come October), a healthy Bedard will be the best third starter of all the playoff teams not from Philly. And the Sox have the second best 1-2 punch after Philly. And their lineup is much better.

[bignick33]

Teddy, the Red Sox need someone to emerge as a merely competent third starter. Not even that has happened. If Bedard stays healthy, he's obviously very likely the guy. He's a good pitcher when healthy.

There will be some good playoff races in the NL. Atlanta, Arizona and San Francisco will compete for two spots (NL West and Wildcard). Additionally, ever-mediocre the NL Central is up for grabs.

[Shredder]

The Red Sox's current pitching staff can win them a title. Beckett and Lester are the games 1 and 2 starters and Lackey pitches the third game. The real question is the #4 starter in a seven-game series because Tito will likely not pitch a starter on short rest unless there are some injuries. Bedard, if healthy, can be that starter. Lackey has plenty to question this year but he can be a top starter and has done well in the postseason.

The teams that win in October are all-around strong teams. A strong offense with two top starters and dependable pitchers in the other starts and bullpen is exactly what it takes to win a seven-game postseason series. The Sox have a monster lineup and one of the best bullpens in the league. Consider these recent champions:

2010 Giants: Lincecum, Cain, Baumgarner, Sanchez
2009 Yankees: C.C., Burnett, Pettite
2008 Phillies: Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton (who was dominant)
2007 Red Sox: Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield (ALCS)/Lester (WS)
2006 Cardinals: Anthony Reyes, Chris Carpenter, Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan
2005 White Sox: Contreras, Buherle, Garland, Garcia (all four starters had sub-3 ERA's and good records during the season, but the team also had great offense)
2004 Red Sox: (ALCS) Schilling, Pedro, Arroyo, Lowe, Pedro, Bionic Schilling, Lowe (WS) Wakefield, Schilling, Pedro, Lowe -- note that Lowe did not have a good regular season and was bumped to the bullpen until he was needed in Game 4.

Then look at the team that had Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Steve Avery (1990-96).

[twballgame9]

Teddy, the Red Sox need someone to emerge as a merely competent third starter. Not even that has happened. If Bedard stays healthy, he's obviously very likely the guy. He's a good pitcher when healthy.

There will be some good playoff races in the NL. Atlanta, Arizona and San Francisco will compete for two spots (NL West and Wildcard). Additionally, ever-mediocre the NL Central is up for grabs.

He is a very good pitcher when healthy. He's been pitching for shit teams. The Moneyball guys should love him - he's the posterboy for "wins and losses don't matter for shit."

I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

Regardless, when you have Beckett and Lester at the top of the rotation, all you need is competent at #3, if that, for a short series. Had Buchholz stayed healthy, they were a virtual lock for the Series, now they are just the AL favorites. By a long shot.

Without Buchholz, I'd make Philly a slight favorite to win however, unless Bedard is healthy.

[bignick33]

I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

Lackey was 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA in July while facing Toronto, Baltimore, @TB, Seattle, and Kansas City. Then he gave up 5 runs to Cleveland on Monday. That is not the cream of the crop of the AL, yet he still had a subpar ERA against them. He got lucky with run support and obviously pitched well enough to win. He is pitching a little better, but not a lot better. A third starter he is not. Since the last week of June, has has not pitched well against a single good opponent.

I agree that with a healthy Bedard, the Sox leapfrog the Phillies as favorites. That being said, the Pence acquisition addressed a major hole on the Phillies' roster.

[twballgame9]

I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

Lackey was 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA in July while facing Toronto, Baltimore, @TB, Seattle, and Kansas City. Then he gave up 5 runs to Cleveland on Monday. That is not the cream of the crop of the AL, yet he still had a subpar ERA against them. He got lucky with run support and obviously pitched well enough to win. He is pitching a little better, but not a lot better. A third starter he is not. Since the last week of June, has has not pitched well against a single good opponent.

I agree that with a healthy Bedard, the Sox leapfrog the Phillies as favorites. That being said, the Pence acquisition addressed a major hole on the Phillies' roster.

The TOR start skews Lackey's stats, as he gave up 7 ER in 2 and a third. Skipping CLEV and TOR, the rest of his last 7 starts (in reverse order)

KC - 3 ER in 5.2
SEA - 1 ER in 7
TB - 3 ER in 5.2
BAL - 0 ER in 6.2
PHI - 2 ER in 7.2

That's a 2.47 ERA in 5 of his last 7 games.

[bignick33]

I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

Lackey was 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA in July while facing Toronto, Baltimore, @TB, Seattle, and Kansas City. Then he gave up 5 runs to Cleveland on Monday. That is not the cream of the crop of the AL, yet he still had a subpar ERA against them. He got lucky with run support and obviously pitched well enough to win. He is pitching a little better, but not a lot better. A third starter he is not. Since the last week of June, has has not pitched well against a single good opponent.

I agree that with a healthy Bedard, the Sox leapfrog the Phillies as favorites. That being said, the Pence acquisition addressed a major hole on the Phillies' roster.

The TOR start skews Lackey's stats, as he gave up 7 ER in 2 and a third. Skipping CLEV and TOR, the rest of his last 7 starts (in reverse order)

KC - 3 ER in 5.2
SEA - 1 ER in 7
TB - 3 ER in 5.2
BAL - 0 ER in 6.2
PHI - 2 ER in 7.2

That's a 2.47 ERA in 5 of his last 7 games.

Hopefully we can erase the bad starts in the playoffs too.

[twballgame9]

I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

Lackey was 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA in July while facing Toronto, Baltimore, @TB, Seattle, and Kansas City. Then he gave up 5 runs to Cleveland on Monday. That is not the cream of the crop of the AL, yet he still had a subpar ERA against them. He got lucky with run support and obviously pitched well enough to win. He is pitching a little better, but not a lot better. A third starter he is not. Since the last week of June, has has not pitched well against a single good opponent.

I agree that with a healthy Bedard, the Sox leapfrog the Phillies as favorites. That being said, the Pence acquisition addressed a major hole on the Phillies' roster.

The TOR start skews Lackey's stats, as he gave up 7 ER in 2 and a third. Skipping CLEV and TOR, the rest of his last 7 starts (in reverse order)

KC - 3 ER in 5.2
SEA - 1 ER in 7
TB - 3 ER in 5.2
BAL - 0 ER in 6.2
PHI - 2 ER in 7.2

That's a 2.47 ERA in 5 of his last 7 games.

Hopefully we can erase the bad starts in the playoffs too.

I didn't say he was perfect. I would note that I would have no qualms handing him the rock against Philly.

[bignick33]

I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

Lackey was 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA in July while facing Toronto, Baltimore, @TB, Seattle, and Kansas City. Then he gave up 5 runs to Cleveland on Monday. That is not the cream of the crop of the AL, yet he still had a subpar ERA against them. He got lucky with run support and obviously pitched well enough to win. He is pitching a little better, but not a lot better. A third starter he is not. Since the last week of June, has has not pitched well against a single good opponent.

I agree that with a healthy Bedard, the Sox leapfrog the Phillies as favorites. That being said, the Pence acquisition addressed a major hole on the Phillies' roster.

The TOR start skews Lackey's stats, as he gave up 7 ER in 2 and a third. Skipping CLEV and TOR, the rest of his last 7 starts (in reverse order)

KC - 3 ER in 5.2
SEA - 1 ER in 7
TB - 3 ER in 5.2
BAL - 0 ER in 6.2
PHI - 2 ER in 7.2

That's a 2.47 ERA in 5 of his last 7 games.

Hopefully we can erase the bad starts in the playoffs too.

I didn't say he was perfect. I would note that I would have no qualms handing him the rock against Philly.

What's funny is that we're essentially in agreement. Bedard is the guy that'll make or break the Sox as World Series favorites. I just object to Lackey's 6+ ERA and your ballwashing herein. He simply doesn't inspire confidence in me.

[twballgame9]

I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

Lackey was 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA in July while facing Toronto, Baltimore, @TB, Seattle, and Kansas City. Then he gave up 5 runs to Cleveland on Monday. That is not the cream of the crop of the AL, yet he still had a subpar ERA against them. He got lucky with run support and obviously pitched well enough to win. He is pitching a little better, but not a lot better. A third starter he is not. Since the last week of June, has has not pitched well against a single good opponent.

I agree that with a healthy Bedard, the Sox leapfrog the Phillies as favorites. That being said, the Pence acquisition addressed a major hole on the Phillies' roster.

The TOR start skews Lackey's stats, as he gave up 7 ER in 2 and a third. Skipping CLEV and TOR, the rest of his last 7 starts (in reverse order)

KC - 3 ER in 5.2
SEA - 1 ER in 7
TB - 3 ER in 5.2
BAL - 0 ER in 6.2
PHI - 2 ER in 7.2

That's a 2.47 ERA in 5 of his last 7 games.

Hopefully we can erase the bad starts in the playoffs too.

I didn't say he was perfect. I would note that I would have no qualms handing him the rock against Philly.

What's funny is that we're essentially in agreement. Bedard is the guy that'll make or break the Sox as World Series favorites. I just object to Lackey's 6+ ERA and your ballwashing herein. He simply doesn't inspire confidence in me.

"I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

is hardly ballwashing. He's been terrible for most of the season. He's been a serviceable third starter lately on a team with a great bullpen and the best lineup in baseball.

[bignick33]

I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

Lackey was 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA in July while facing Toronto, Baltimore, @TB, Seattle, and Kansas City. Then he gave up 5 runs to Cleveland on Monday. That is not the cream of the crop of the AL, yet he still had a subpar ERA against them. He got lucky with run support and obviously pitched well enough to win. He is pitching a little better, but not a lot better. A third starter he is not. Since the last week of June, has has not pitched well against a single good opponent.

I agree that with a healthy Bedard, the Sox leapfrog the Phillies as favorites. That being said, the Pence acquisition addressed a major hole on the Phillies' roster.

The TOR start skews Lackey's stats, as he gave up 7 ER in 2 and a third. Skipping CLEV and TOR, the rest of his last 7 starts (in reverse order)

KC - 3 ER in 5.2
SEA - 1 ER in 7
TB - 3 ER in 5.2
BAL - 0 ER in 6.2
PHI - 2 ER in 7.2

That's a 2.47 ERA in 5 of his last 7 games.

Hopefully we can erase the bad starts in the playoffs too.

I didn't say he was perfect. I would note that I would have no qualms handing him the rock against Philly.

What's funny is that we're essentially in agreement. Bedard is the guy that'll make or break the Sox as World Series favorites. I just object to Lackey's 6+ ERA and your ballwashing herein. He simply doesn't inspire confidence in me.

"I also think that Lackey over the past 7-8 starts has been serviceable as a third starter. He had a glitch last start, but he's been good lately.

is hardly ballwashing. He's been terrible for most of the season. He's been a serviceable third starter lately on a team with a great bullpen and the best lineup in baseball.

"I would note that I would have no qualms handing him the rock against Philly."

I most certainly would have qualms, but if both teams make it there, it'll almost certainly be a necessity. It's clearly a weakness.

[twballgame9]

I was just noting that his best start in two seasons was against the World Series favorites.

[flyingelvii]

Looking at the numbers, Bedard's been somewhat better than league average, though not significantly so. I'm sure some of that is helped by the fact he plays in Safeco and I'm pretty sure the Mariners have a relatively good defense, probably better than Boston's at least. That said, he's walking less batters, his K rate is still good, at least compared to the last couple of years. He's very much in line with his 2007 numbers, his breakout year, except he's striking out less batters, which is expected given his surgeries. I imagine he won't pitch as well as he has this year but he'll still be plenty sufficient, especially considering a at least a couple of the guys the Sox gave up were probably going to be unprotected in the Rule V draft (Fed-x comes to mind).

[twballgame9]

Looking at the numbers, Bedard's been somewhat better than league average, though not significantly so. I'm sure some of that is helped by the fact he plays in Safeco and I'm pretty sure the Mariners have a relatively good defense, probably better than Boston's at least. That said, he's walking less batters, his K rate is still good, at least compared to the last couple of years. He's very much in line with his 2007 numbers, his breakout year, except he's striking out less batters, which is expected given his surgeries. I imagine he won't pitch as well as he has this year but he'll still be plenty sufficient, especially considering a at least a couple of the guys the Sox gave up were probably going to be unprotected in the Rule V draft (Fed-x comes to mind).

He keeps his ERA under 4, he wins a ton of games. His ERA is well below league average.

[bignick33]

Another good part of the Bedard acquisition is that both the Phillies are lefty-heavy and the new Yankees Stadium is a launching pad for guys hitting from the left side. All other things being equal, you'd rather throw a lefty against both of those teams than a righty.

[flyingelvii]

Looking at the numbers, Bedard's been somewhat better than league average, though not significantly so. I'm sure some of that is helped by the fact he plays in Safeco and I'm pretty sure the Mariners have a relatively good defense, probably better than Boston's at least. That said, he's walking less batters, his K rate is still good, at least compared to the last couple of years. He's very much in line with his 2007 numbers, his breakout year, except he's striking out less batters, which is expected given his surgeries. I imagine he won't pitch as well as he has this year but he'll still be plenty sufficient, especially considering a at least a couple of the guys the Sox gave up were probably going to be unprotected in the Rule V draft (Fed-x comes to mind).

He keeps his ERA under 4, he wins a ton of games. His ERA is well below league average.

His ERA+ (OH SHIT IT'S FANCY NUMBERS LET'S RUN BEHIND A WALL BECAUSE I'M AFRAID OF FINDING OUT THEY HAVE ACTUAL MEANING AND AREN'T THAT COMPLEX AND CAN TELL YOU STUFF MORE THAN THE THREE MOST IMPORTANTEST NUMBERS IN THE WORLD DO) is 108, so he's a little better than league average but not significantly so by any measure. Not bad for a third starter but, as I said, some of that is due to the friendly confines of Safeco.

[EagleNYC]

Looking at the numbers, Bedard's been somewhat better than league average, though not significantly so. I'm sure some of that is helped by the fact he plays in Safeco and I'm pretty sure the Mariners have a relatively good defense, probably better than Boston's at least. That said, he's walking less batters, his K rate is still good, at least compared to the last couple of years. He's very much in line with his 2007 numbers, his breakout year, except he's striking out less batters, which is expected given his surgeries. I imagine he won't pitch as well as he has this year but he'll still be plenty sufficient, especially considering a at least a couple of the guys the Sox gave up were probably going to be unprotected in the Rule V draft (Fed-x comes to mind).

He keeps his ERA under 4, he wins a ton of games. His ERA is well below league average.

His ERA+ (OH SHIT IT'S FANCY NUMBERS LET'S RUN BEHIND A WALL BECAUSE I'M AFRAID OF FINDING OUT THEY HAVE ACTUAL MEANING AND AREN'T THAT COMPLEX AND CAN TELL YOU STUFF MORE THAN THE THREE MOST IMPORTANTEST NUMBERS IN THE WORLD DO) is 108, so he's a little better than league average but not significantly so by any measure. Not bad for a third starter but, as I said, some of that is due to the friendly confines of Safeco.

[twballgame9]

His career ERA+ is 119 and he was in the 150s prior to the injury. He's only had 17 starts since missing an entire season. Aren't the Moneyball guys the ones that talk of sample size and a return to norm?

Now granted, he may never return to norm because of the labrum tear, but his norm is sufficiently better than league average.

[flyingelvii]

Bedard's career ERA+ is about as useful as Mark Prior's right now, so I don't take too much stock in it. He doesn't have a norm anymore because of all this so it's incredibly difficult to project. HIs rates (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc.) look as good as they have since he got traded and suggest he can at least be an adequate number 3 so I'll take it but I'm tempering my expectations greatly. I just put extreme caution in guys that have suffered significant arm/shoulder/elbow injuries.

[bignick33]

Bedard's career ERA+ is about as useful as Mark Prior's right now, so I don't take too much stock in it. He doesn't have a norm anymore because of all this so it's incredibly difficult to project. HIs rates (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc.) look as good as they have since he got traded and suggest he can at least be an adequate number 3 so I'll take it but I'm tempering my expectations greatly. I just put extreme caution in guys that have suffered significant arm/shoulder/elbow injuries.

This pretty much sums up my thoughts on Bedard that I struggled to articulate: cautious optimism.

[bignick33]

So...Alfredo Aceves is 22-2 in his career.

[pick6pedro]

So...Alfredo Aceves is 22-2 in his career.

I gave him a fantasy spot start - and he gave up 6 in 5 and took the loss. jerk.

no, I will not post my roster(s)

[bignick33]

So...Alfredo Aceves is 22-2 in his career.

I gave him a fantasy spot start - and he gave up 6 in 5 and took the loss. jerk.

no, I will not post my roster(s)

While he's been very effective in his role for both the Sox and Yanks in prior years, it's indicative of the fact that he's extremely lucky as far as wins/losses. I obviously don't project a continued 90+ winning percentage out of the pen (and winning percentage is largely meaningless for a relief pitcher anyways), but based solely on prior results, he was a viable fantasy option in two of the last three years as a freaking long reliever.

[Endless Mike]

POST YOUR ROSTER YOU COWARD!!!

[flyingelvii]

Jason Kipnis and Emilio Bonifacio.

Needless to say I'm running away with the battle for 11th place.

[claver2010]

Impressed by the Yanks, up 2 in the L column despite shitty pitchers beyond Sabathia (while the Sawx have been pitching shitty). There should be more of a punishment than simply the 4th seed for the wildcard.

[twballgame9]

Impressed by the Yanks, up 2 in the L column despite shitty pitchers beyond Sabathia (while the Sawx have been pitching shitty). There should be more of a punishment than simply the 4th seed for the wildcard.

Sox have been in sleepwalk/get healthy mode for weeks now. They don't give a shit about winning the division at all, and it is annoying. And it has been the offense that has been hurting lately without Papi and Youk in the lineup, not the pitching. Runs per game are down by 2 over the past fortnight with Papi out.

[Shredder]

Impressed by the Yanks, up 2 in the L column despite shitty pitchers beyond Sabathia (while the Sawx have been pitching shitty). There should be more of a punishment than simply the 4th seed for the wildcard.

The Wildcard never has home-field advantage in the divisional and league rounds, and this year an AL wildcard won't have it in the World Series either.

In related news, the Yanks pitching is catching up with them. Three grand slams seems to have overshadowed a terrible start by Hughes and losing two out of three to a bad team. Three out of four to bad teams including lastnight's suckfest by (below) Average A.J. The Sox are at the top again but Francona's primary concern is that his team is healthy and ready for October.

The NL race is interesting. The Phillies are everyone's pick but the Brewers are the hottest team in baseball and also beat the Phillies two out of three at Philly. They have a four game series in Milwaukee in September.

[eagle9903]

The NL race is interesting. The Phillies are everyone's pick but the Brewers are the hottest team in baseball and also beat the Phillies two out of three at Philly. They have a four game series in Milwaukee in September.

As a Phillies fan I don't see Milwaukee or SF as good matchups, although I'd be optimistic in either series.

Milwaukee won't get to face Kyle Kendrick in the playoffs fortunately.