For FJM fans...

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For FJM fans...

Postby 2001Eagle on Thu Nov 18, 2010 4:50 pm

Coach hard. Love hard.
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Re: For FJM fans...

Postby flyingelvii on Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:01 pm

My favorite is his argument that Steve Carlton and that other guy found ways to win on worse teams. And then he points out that they had higher run support. And probably didn't even think of the average run support year over year.

The FJM guys did the Deadspin return ~1 month too early.
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Re: For FJM fans...

Postby pick6pedro on Fri Nov 19, 2010 9:36 am

I understand that wins are the thing that ultimately matters in team sports, but this is an individual award. You can't tell me the King wouldn't have won 20 games with the Yanks this year...

And then he says this:

"But to me, this is the wrong year for Hernandez, I think he’s the best pitcher in the league..." - ummm, that's what the award is for you dingbat!
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Re: For FJM fans...

Postby flyingelvii on Fri Nov 19, 2010 10:09 am

That's an upsurd line of thinking. Everyone knows its so much easier to pitch under conditions where you'll likely lose or get a ND if you give up one run than it is to pitch in a pennant race that'd realistically been over since August. And that's an Ibsolute if I've ever seen one.
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Re: For FJM fans...

Postby EagleNYC on Wed Nov 24, 2010 12:46 pm

I'm bored, I'm biting. I will do my best not to stray into stupidity, like saying that ANYONE posits that "wins don't matter," but I believe that they have been discounted a bit too much by the sabr crowd. I'll tie this back into what Chass wrote at the end.

The purpose of a baseball game is to win. A starting pitcher has the greatest control over the outcome of a game of all players, as he has the (nearly individual) ability to prevent the opposition from scoring runs. A perfect game with 27 Ks has never happened, but (assuming no passed balls that turn into baserunners) it provides an assured victory where 1 run of support is provided. A mere shutout, again, assuming one run of support, also provides an assured win. Accepting this, the starting pitcher's unique position of (potentially) throwing every pitch puts him in command of the outcome. In this vein, a pitcher that throw 9 shutout innings is, clearly, better than one who throws 7, so innings matter, since they bring you closer to a victory.

Since the purpose is to win a game, winning deserves to be a significant factor in any pitcher's evaluation, particularly since a full season provides an adequate sample size to discount any abberation. In this regard, the win statistic's "flaw" (it's dependence upon run support, which is not within a pitcher's control) is limited to a particular start. By comparison, one (or 2-3) truly poor start can have a disastrous affect on ERA, that skews the figure. It is, of course, far easier to win a game if you are provided with 5 runs per game, rather than 2. The margin for error is necessarily lower. But you can still win. Moreover, pitching to a lead, though it escapes all known (to me) metrics, is an important part of baseball. If you have a 6 run lead in the 5th, you're going to throw more fastballs and rely upon the BABIP numbers.

Another thought: if Boise/TCU are discounted for playing soft schedules, why no talk of the anemic competition Felix faced in the AL West, as opposed to a pitcher from the East? The A's ranked 11th in the AL in runs scored; the Angels 9th (14 teams). To be fair Texas ranked 4th. So what about AL pitchers facing the NYY (1st), Boston (2nd), Tampa (3rd) or Toronto (6th)? You can only fatten up so much on Baltimore (13th), though Sabathia sure did this year.

And what about the importance of the games pitched? Should it matter that Felix (arguably) never pitched in a crucial game for Seatlle this year? I think it should. If winning individually matter, winning as a team is also important. It is not as easy to win games when your team needs to win, rather than just playing out the string.

Finally: a sabr case can be complied against Felix. Safeco is, definitely, a pitchers park. But don't rely on me: check out ESPN's Park Factor. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor It rates Safeco as the 2nd most pitcher friendly park by runs and home runs. The Angels and A's parks are bottom 3 in runs and HR, respectively, and Felix had 4 starts there. Four of the AL East parks rank in the top 5 AL parks for runs scored, with the Trop actually coming in last. There are obviously other factors. A pitcher's defense, naturally, can greatly benefit or hurt him, though only a fraction of poor defense (measured by errors) makes its way into ERA (comparing runs allowed to earned runs allowed).

With all this said, I would have voted for David Price. He had a 2.72 ERA, facing a FAR more potent set of opponents in a comparable home park and generally less favorable road parks (Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Toronto). His W/L record is outstanding (19-6). His WHIP is .23 higher, and his ERA .45 higher, but, as I said, he played to much stronger competition.
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Re: For FJM fans...

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:09 pm

The problem I have with your argument is that the pitcher doesn't have the greatest control over the outcome of the game, especially in the AL. He has control over half of the game, i.e. the innings he pitches. The other players have control over the other half of the game. The Mariners lost 9 times where he gave up 2 ER or fewer. He also got 7 ND's when giving up 2 ER or fewer, including a couple where he didn't give up any ER at all.

Regarding your qualms about competition and park factors, that's why ERA+ was created. While he didn't lead the league in it (Buccholz did with a 187), Felix had a 174 compared to Price's 145. While it doesn't take into consideration the teams played, that's a pretty significant gap all things considered. Throw in the fact that Felix also pitched about 35 more innings in 3 more starts, with 6 CGs compared to Price's 2, 44 more K's, taking the luck that can be BABIP out of play, and 9 less walks, and I don't think it's really that close.

And FWIW a better SABR case can be made for Cliff Lee if you use FIP and other such metrics but it's pretty clear Lee wasn't nearly as good as Felix.
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Re: For FJM fans...

Postby EagleNYC on Wed Nov 24, 2010 1:42 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:The problem I have with your argument is that the pitcher doesn't have the greatest control over the outcome of the game, especially in the AL. He has control over half of the game, i.e. the innings he pitches. The other players have control over the other half of the game. The Mariners lost 9 times where he gave up 2 ER or fewer. He also got 7 ND's when giving up 2 ER or fewer, including a couple where he didn't give up any ER at all.

I disagree ephatically. If you don't allow a run, you can't lose. Period. A starting pitcher can do that. Was his margin of error dismally small? Yes. But instead of dismissing this, I would only discount it.

Regarding your qualms about competition and park factors, that's why ERA+ was created. While he didn't lead the league in it (Buccholz did with a 187), Felix had a 174 compared to Price's 145. While it doesn't take into consideration the teams played, that's a pretty significant gap all things considered. Throw in the fact that Felix also pitched about 35 more innings in 3 more starts, with 6 CGs compared to Price's 2, 44 more K's, taking the luck that can be BABIP out of play, and 9 less walks, and I don't think it's really that close.

ERA+ is a useful guide, but as you wrote, it does not factor in the opponents, who were far, far weaker. If you face weaker opponents, you'll strike more of them out and you'll pitch deeper into games. And FWIW a better SABR case can be made for Cliff Lee if you use FIP and other such metrics but it's pretty clear Lee wasn't nearly as good as Felix.


Lee's season was split in half, so I won't consider him.
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Re: For FJM fans...

Postby EagleNYC on Wed Nov 24, 2010 2:23 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:The Mariners lost 9 times where he gave up 2 ER or fewer. He also got 7 ND's when giving up 2 ER or fewer, including a couple where he didn't give up any ER at all.




FWIW, Price had 4 ND where he gave up 2 ER or fewer.
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Re: For FJM fans...

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Nov 24, 2010 4:38 pm

EagleNYC {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:The problem I have with your argument is that the pitcher doesn't have the greatest control over the outcome of the game, especially in the AL. He has control over half of the game, i.e. the innings he pitches. The other players have control over the other half of the game. The Mariners lost 9 times where he gave up 2 ER or fewer. He also got 7 ND's when giving up 2 ER or fewer, including a couple where he didn't give up any ER at all.

I disagree ephatically. If you don't allow a run, you can't lose. Period. A starting pitcher can do that. Was his margin of error dismally small? Yes. But instead of dismissing this, I would only discount it.

Regarding your qualms about competition and park factors, that's why ERA+ was created. While he didn't lead the league in it (Buccholz did with a 187), Felix had a 174 compared to Price's 145. While it doesn't take into consideration the teams played, that's a pretty significant gap all things considered. Throw in the fact that Felix also pitched about 35 more innings in 3 more starts, with 6 CGs compared to Price's 2, 44 more K's, taking the luck that can be BABIP out of play, and 9 less walks, and I don't think it's really that close.

ERA+ is a useful guide, but as you wrote, it does not factor in the opponents, who were far, far weaker. If you face weaker opponents, you'll strike more of them out and you'll pitch deeper into games. And FWIW a better SABR case can be made for Cliff Lee if you use FIP and other such metrics but it's pretty clear Lee wasn't nearly as good as Felix.


Lee's season was split in half, so I won't consider him.

I just don't understand why you should punish a pitcher because his offense sucks. This isn't the MVP award, it's for the best individual pitcher of the year. It's a singular award for a singular performance. Put his numbers in a vacuum and it obliterates everyone else. His run support was not just horrible for this year, it was historically bad. He controlled what he could control better than anybody else in the league. It's not his fault his offense was led by such greats as, well, I can honestly only name 5 non-pitchers for the Mariners and one is the backup SS.

The difference in ERA+ is so significant that I don't think the opponents argument can really even apply. Say it knocks it down 20-30 points. Pretty much all his peripherals work out better than Price's still. And FWIW all of his AL West opponents struck out less than all of Price's AL East opponents, with the exception of Baltimore, who was in between the AL West teams.
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