enjoy.
http://www.murraychass.com/?p=2621
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:The problem I have with your argument is that the pitcher doesn't have the greatest control over the outcome of the game, especially in the AL. He has control over half of the game, i.e. the innings he pitches. The other players have control over the other half of the game. The Mariners lost 9 times where he gave up 2 ER or fewer. He also got 7 ND's when giving up 2 ER or fewer, including a couple where he didn't give up any ER at all.
I disagree ephatically. If you don't allow a run, you can't lose. Period. A starting pitcher can do that. Was his margin of error dismally small? Yes. But instead of dismissing this, I would only discount it.
Regarding your qualms about competition and park factors, that's why ERA+ was created. While he didn't lead the league in it (Buccholz did with a 187), Felix had a 174 compared to Price's 145. While it doesn't take into consideration the teams played, that's a pretty significant gap all things considered. Throw in the fact that Felix also pitched about 35 more innings in 3 more starts, with 6 CGs compared to Price's 2, 44 more K's, taking the luck that can be BABIP out of play, and 9 less walks, and I don't think it's really that close.
ERA+ is a useful guide, but as you wrote, it does not factor in the opponents, who were far, far weaker. If you face weaker opponents, you'll strike more of them out and you'll pitch deeper into games. And FWIW a better SABR case can be made for Cliff Lee if you use FIP and other such metrics but it's pretty clear Lee wasn't nearly as good as Felix.
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:The Mariners lost 9 times where he gave up 2 ER or fewer. He also got 7 ND's when giving up 2 ER or fewer, including a couple where he didn't give up any ER at all.
EagleNYC {l Wrote}:flyingelvii {l Wrote}:The problem I have with your argument is that the pitcher doesn't have the greatest control over the outcome of the game, especially in the AL. He has control over half of the game, i.e. the innings he pitches. The other players have control over the other half of the game. The Mariners lost 9 times where he gave up 2 ER or fewer. He also got 7 ND's when giving up 2 ER or fewer, including a couple where he didn't give up any ER at all.
I disagree ephatically. If you don't allow a run, you can't lose. Period. A starting pitcher can do that. Was his margin of error dismally small? Yes. But instead of dismissing this, I would only discount it.
Regarding your qualms about competition and park factors, that's why ERA+ was created. While he didn't lead the league in it (Buccholz did with a 187), Felix had a 174 compared to Price's 145. While it doesn't take into consideration the teams played, that's a pretty significant gap all things considered. Throw in the fact that Felix also pitched about 35 more innings in 3 more starts, with 6 CGs compared to Price's 2, 44 more K's, taking the luck that can be BABIP out of play, and 9 less walks, and I don't think it's really that close.
ERA+ is a useful guide, but as you wrote, it does not factor in the opponents, who were far, far weaker. If you face weaker opponents, you'll strike more of them out and you'll pitch deeper into games. And FWIW a better SABR case can be made for Cliff Lee if you use FIP and other such metrics but it's pretty clear Lee wasn't nearly as good as Felix.
Lee's season was split in half, so I won't consider him.
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