HOT STOVE LEAGUE 2011 Omnibuster Thread

[twballgame9]

I'd also note that Crawford, like Gonzo, is 28, just coming into his prime as a hitter. His numbers, especially OPS+ have gone up progressively. Last year was a $20 million season with a .307 BA, 19 dongs, 90 RBI, 46 SB, 110 runs and an .851 OPS. Put him in front of Gonzo and that will only go up.

[shockdoct]

Honestly I thought crawford was in the 8/160-180 range after that werth deal.

Sox have a lot of long term contracts now. At least these deals are to guys entering their prime (late 20s) vs guys earning deals from their performance in their prime years (Werth/Lee this year and Lackey last year).

If Kalish can step into RF next year (and let Nancy's 14MM roll off) and Iglesias can take over SS as planned, the lineup is going to be set up for years to come

EDIT - Also looking at some of the recent deals handed out...Holliday got 7/120 last yr @ age 29. I would definitely prefer crawford for a few million more a year.

[branchinator]

I'd also note that Crawford, like Gonzo, is 28, just coming into his prime as a hitter. His numbers, especially OPS+ have gone up progressively. Last year was a $20 million season with a .307 BA, 19 dongs, 90 RBI, 46 SB, 110 runs and an .851 OPS. Put him in front of Gonzo and that will only go up.

He turns 30 next June. Again, Crawford is a good player but this is an overpay. The Red Sox lineup is better with him than without him so that's good.

[claver2010]

Far from me to complement an inept GM but Minaya's deal for Bay doesn't seem bad. In the past 2 offseason's there have been 4 big time corner outfielders: Bay, Holliday, Werth, & Crawford. Rank them how you may here are their averages for the 3 years leading up to the FA contract & their age of the start of the first year of the contract:

Bay (31): .267-29-101 OPS: .855
Holliday (30): .325-28-111 OPS: .958
Werth (32): .279-29-84 OPS: .889
Crawford (29): .297-14-72 (44 SB) OPS: .803

And their contracts:
Bay: 4-66
Holiday: 7-120
Werth: 7-126
Crawford: 7-142

While Bay is the worst of the 4 they aren't committing money to someone in their late 30s.

[bignick33]

Rumor is 7 year / 142 mil for Crawford. If true, MASSIVE overpay. Carl Crawford and Jason Werth aren't elite players.

Crawford is absolutely an elite player. Werth on the other hand...

[eagle9903]

Crawford is absolutely overpaid, and its because of Werth, just the value's not quite as bad as Werth.

[cvilleagle]

The other thing to note about Crawford is that you're more sure what you're getting with him than with Werth. Sure, Werth's numbers are pretty decent, but he faces a bunch of NL pitching, not the AL East. It's entirely possible that if they bring Werth to Boston he flames out spectacularly. Instead, they bring a guy who has put up good numbers facing basically the same pitching that he'll be facing in Boston.

[eagle9903]

The other thing to note about Crawford is that you're more sure what you're getting with him than with Werth. Sure, Werth's numbers are pretty decent, but he faces a bunch of NL pitching, not the AL East. It's entirely possible that if they bring Werth to Boston he flames out spectacularly. Instead, they bring a guy who has put up good numbers facing basically the same pitching that he'll be facing in Boston.

NL = minor leagues... fart.

[flyingelvii]

This is really setting up the lineup for 2012, just a year early. Drew, Ortiz, Dice-K, probably Wake, Scutaro, and Cameron are all up and Papelbon could be gone as well. I read somewhere that it's about $55 million coming off the books. They may be in the luxury tax for this year but they should be well set up for the next.

Will be interesting to see what happens with Ellsbury. Would prefer to dump Cameron for someone else and have Kalish or Reddick, though I see the benefit in them seeing regular time down in Pawtucket. Lowrie will probably end up moving the 3B or stay at SS if Iglesias isn't ready. Youk and Gonzalez will split 1B and DH duties. Doubront looks to fit in as a long reliever next year and will probably step up to the rotation eventually if he isn't traded, which he most likely will as he's one of the organization's hotter commodities. Need to shore up the bullpen and they don't have too many internal options. Bowden's intriguing but his bullpen experiment just started towards the end of last year and I can't imagine he'd be ready until June or so, if at all.

All in all, they're pretty well stacked for this year and next.

[BCEagle74]

Baseball owners with new gift parks and Tv money are rolling in cash and franchise value increases.

Crawford, Werth and Jeter = 3 way tie for redonkulous.

I loved Dunn for the Yankess...Reinsdorf....

They may be hot on defense --- 40-120's back to back.

Like Maris and Mantle.

[claver2010]

NL = minor leagues... fart.

Last 10 World Series winners:
NL: 5 AL: 5

Last 10 Winning % in Interleague Play
NL: 47% AL: 53%

Just saying is all.

And we play real baseball.

[eagle9903]

NL = minor leagues... fart.

Last 10 World Series winners:
NL: 5 AL: 5

Last 10 Winning % in Interleague Play
NL: 47% AL: 53%

Just saying is all.

And we play real baseball.

please note the "... fart" which was a response to civil's facing real pitching staff comment.

[pick6pedro]

NL = minor leagues... fart.

Last 10 World Series winners:
NL: 5 AL: 5

Last 10 Winning % in Interleague Play
NL: 47% AL: 53%

Just saying is all.

And we play real baseball.

Man, that proves so little I don't even know where to start.

[cvilleagle]

For the record, I never compared the NL to the minor leagues or said it was not competitive. It's different than the AL.

That being said, is it really a controversial claim that the pitching in the AL East over, say, the past 5 years, has been better than the pitching in the NL East?

[flyingelvii]

NL = minor leagues... fart.

Last 10 World Series winners:
NL: 5 AL: 5

Last 10 Winning % in Interleague Play
NL: 47% AL: 53%

Just saying is all.

And we play real baseball.

Man, that proves so little I don't even know where to start.

Hey, if you don't trust a 7 game sample size, well, I don't even know what to think.

[eagle9903]

For the record, I never compared the NL to the minor leagues or said it was not competitive. It's different than the AL.

That being said, is it really a controversial claim that the pitching in the AL East over, say, the past 5 years, has been better than the pitching in the NL East?

No, but I don't think it shows much in comparing Crawford and Werth. I think the 2* year age difference and Werth's shitty apathy towards winning make it a better signing.

*I had the ages wrong I guess

[Endless Mike]

I'd also note that Crawford, like Gonzo, is 28, just coming into his prime as a hitter. His numbers, especially OPS+ have gone up progressively. Last year was a $20 million season with a .307 BA, 19 dongs, 90 RBI, 46 SB, 110 runs and an .851 OPS. Put him in front of Gonzo and that will only go up.

He turns 30 next June. Again, Crawford is a good player but this is an overpay. The Red Sox lineup is better with him than without him so that's good.

They had to overpay, or someone else would have. I don't understand why Red Sox fans are upset about the money. They still have money they can use for middle relief.

[flyingelvii]

I'd also note that Crawford, like Gonzo, is 28, just coming into his prime as a hitter. His numbers, especially OPS+ have gone up progressively. Last year was a $20 million season with a .307 BA, 19 dongs, 90 RBI, 46 SB, 110 runs and an .851 OPS. Put him in front of Gonzo and that will only go up.

He turns 30 next June. Again, Crawford is a good player but this is an overpay. The Red Sox lineup is better with him than without him so that's good.

They had to overpay, or someone else would have. I don't understand why Red Sox fans are upset about the money. They still have money they can use for middle relief.

And $55 million comes off the books next year.

[branchinator]

I'd also note that Crawford, like Gonzo, is 28, just coming into his prime as a hitter. His numbers, especially OPS+ have gone up progressively. Last year was a $20 million season with a .307 BA, 19 dongs, 90 RBI, 46 SB, 110 runs and an .851 OPS. Put him in front of Gonzo and that will only go up.

He turns 30 next June. Again, Crawford is a good player but this is an overpay. The Red Sox lineup is better with him than without him so that's good.

They had to overpay, or someone else would have. I don't understand why Red Sox fans are upset about the money. They still have money they can use for middle relief.

I'm not upset. I'd rather have Crawford at $300 million than not have him at all as long as it doesn't impact their ability to build a complete roster. I didn't realize he had such a good work ethic so the risk at the end of his contract is mitigated a bit.

[pick6pedro]

Carl Crawford. Pffft...

The Orioles are quietly building a dynasty by picking up JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris - giving up some promising arms in the process. Watch your ass SAWX!

[Endless Mike]

Carl Crawford. Pffft...

The Orioles are quietly building a dynasty by picking up JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris - giving up some promising arms in the process. Watch your ass SAWX!

I like Mark Reynolds. Always have.

[claver2010]

NL = minor leagues... fart.

Last 10 World Series winners:
NL: 5 AL: 5

Last 10 Winning % in Interleague Play
NL: 47% AL: 53%

Just saying is all.

And we play real baseball.

Man, that proves so little I don't even know where to start.

One is 10 7 game series sample size and the other is over 2500 game sample size. But who cares about Ws & Ls when you can compare VORPs & OPS+!

[twballgame9]

The NL is not the minor leagues, but there is little doubt that players general improve when moving AL to NL and not vice versa. There are exceptions to the rule, but from a general sense, it is true. Everyone knew that getting Lee, Sabathia or Halliday were smart moves and that they would thrive in the NL (and for the first two, when they went back to the AL). On the other hand, look at Burnett, or Beckett, or look at how terrible Holliday was in his brief stint with the As.

To put it simply, if I were the Yanks or Sox, I would spend more money on the kid from Seattle than I would on Lincecum right now.

[pick6pedro]

NL = minor leagues... fart.

Last 10 World Series winners:
NL: 5 AL: 5

Last 10 Winning % in Interleague Play
NL: 47% AL: 53%

Just saying is all.

And we play real baseball.

Man, that proves so little I don't even know where to start.

One is 10 7 game series sample size and the other is over 2500 game sample size. But who cares about Ws & Ls when you can compare VORPs & OPS+!

Well, the WS one only proves that the best team in the NL beat the best team in the AL 5/10 times in a best of 7 series. It says nothing about all the other teams that year. It says slightly more than the AL AS game dominance does.

The interleague play shows that the AL is slightly better over a larger pool of games. That 6% is actually rather large, though. As any baseball fan knows, the reason there are 162 games played is because the difference in w% between a great team and a bad team is minimal. Every year the vast majority (sometimes all) of teams win only between 40-60% of the games they play. Taking the 2500 number you supplied that comes out to an AL record of 1325-1175. So yes, the comparison of AL to NL is not Yankees to Orioles. It's more like Red Sox to Mets/Angels.

[flyingelvii]

NL = minor leagues... fart.

Last 10 World Series winners:
NL: 5 AL: 5

Last 10 Winning % in Interleague Play
NL: 47% AL: 53%

Just saying is all.

And we play real baseball.

Man, that proves so little I don't even know where to start.

One is 10 7 game series sample size and the other is over 2500 game sample size. But who cares about Ws & Ls when you can compare VORPs & OPS+!

Surprised you didn't go full cliche and throw a mother's basement in there.

[eepstein0]

Carl Crawford. Pffft...

The Orioles are quietly building a dynasty by picking up JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris - giving up some promising arms in the process. Watch your ass SAWX!

I like Mark Reynolds. Always have.

He'll legit K 250 times in the AL East.

[bignick33]

Carl Crawford. Pffft...

The Orioles are quietly building a dynasty by picking up JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris - giving up some promising arms in the process. Watch your ass SAWX!

I like Mark Reynolds. Always have.

He'll legit K 250 times in the AL East.

He makes Mark Bellhorn look like a contact guy.

[BCEagle74]

I say Yankees do 7/180 for Lee.

Ryan Cryin
Lee Smilin

Rangers may have to go 6/150

I still say its a pickem event.

[BCEagle74]

I think I said 2 years ago, I would be surprised to see Salty catch 120+ games. He has had some throwing Steve Sax /Steve Blass issues.

Russell Martin age 27 is intriguing?

Hip Injury?

Russell Martin would be nice. I doubt it though. And I think the Sox can absorb Salty catching 120. Shit, let Varitek play 50 - it doesn't matter if they get Werth or Crawford. Sign a Molina for all I care.

TRUST IN THE 74 GENIUS 9.

I own you lately...(8 years)...then again... I had to leave the country to avoid your thugs collectors and go hide out with TRE and fire Urban in Florida.

You will get your $11.00.....

HA!

[BCEagle74]

Crawford 7/142

WTF is Gonzo gonna get???

Holy Smokes....

Gonzo should go this year and get $7/160 so his 2010 salary triples?

WOW.....