AL East Regular Season Thread

[flyingelvii]

It's not a great stat but it's usually better than runs and a helluva lot better than pitcher wins.

And here goes the Moneyball pissy fight in 3..2..1...

[EagleNYC]

It's not a great stat but it's usually better than runs and a helluva lot better than pitcher wins.

And here goes the Moneyball pissy fight in 3..2..1...

No, I was just dipping my toe in.

[flyingelvii]

I just hate the idea people get that Moneyball is about OBP, SLG, WAR, WHIP, and all the other advanced statistics. It's about finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them. Beane did that with OBP and SLG and got some damn good teams. He tried to do that with defense and got some mediocre teams. Now Daric Barton is sacrifice bunting a ton in early innings so I don't think he knows he's running a baseball team anymore.

[EagleNYC]

I just hate the idea people get that Moneyball is about OBP, SLG, WAR, WHIP, and all the other advanced statistics. It's about finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them. Beane did that with OBP and SLG and got some damn good teams. He tried to do that with defense and got some mediocre teams. Now Daric Barton is sacrifice bunting a ton in early innings so I don't think he knows he's running a baseball team anymore.

Well now I'll agree to talk, but it's not disputing the merits of "Moneyball," but it's meaning. I completely agree that the purpose of Moneyball is identifying valuable measurements for players and (if the market permits), building a team upon those principles at a cost that is lower than it should be. That's a business model.

SABRmetrics is school of thought that begat the in alphabet soup stats. And some within the SABR school have advocated a de-emphasis of the traditional stats (R, W, RBI, etc.). However, others have actually written tracts implying (or explicitly stating) that these stats are more or less meaningless. It is the latter group that offends both baseball purists and adherents to common sense.

[flyingelvii]

They're not meaningless but the importance that has been placed on them has often times misplaced simply because the media has stated since pretty much baseball began that these were the only important stats. Of course, the best management went beyond these stats to find greater value in its infancy. The one example that comes to mind is Branch Rickey "inventing", for lack of a better term, isoP and OBP. And Adam Dunn has basically become the most polarized figure because of this "battle".

One of my favorite quotes ever about the general subject is from Jeff Francouer discussing OBP and said something to the effect of, "If it's so important why don't they put it on the scoreboard when you go to bad." That head in the sand thinking is one of the more frustrating parts of the whole thing.

[branchinator]

I like baseball but I just can't get into the SABRmetrics nerdfest. There's nothing more annoying than a stat nerd proudly proclaiming that BA, RBI, ERA, etc. are worthless stats. They can be flawed but they're certainly not worthless.

[EagleNYC]

They're not meaningless but the importance that has been placed on them has often times misplaced simply because the media has stated since pretty much baseball began that these were the only important stats. Of course, the best management went beyond these stats to find greater value in its infancy. The one example that comes to mind is Branch Rickey "inventing", for lack of a better term, isoP and OBP. And Adam Dunn has basically become the most polarized figure because of this "battle".

One of my favorite quotes ever about the general subject is from Jeff Francouer discussing OBP and said something to the effect of, "If it's so important why don't they put it on the scoreboard when you go to bad." That head in the sand thinking is one of the more frustrating parts of the whole thing.

I think a huge disconnect is that SABR emphasizes extrapolation for the purpose of comparision of dissimilarly situated players (hence, adjustments for home ballpark, league, etc.), while the traditionalists tend to adhere to the black and white of the stats and hold all players to those standards. SABR deals with the hypothetical a bit too much for many people: e.i.: IF X hitter played in a less pitcher-friendly park, he would have done Y, so he's better than you think.

[twballgame9]

I like baseball but I just can't get into the SABRmetrics nerdfest. There's nothing more annoying than a stat nerd proudly proclaiming that BA, RBI, ERA, etc. are worthless stats. They can be flawed but they're certainly not worthless.

They're worthless to SABR dorks because they are trying (unsuccessfully) to put a dollar value on every minor aspect of every player's game, and they refuse to admit there are certain things that are undefinable, like clutchness. A SABR douche will ramble on and on about sample size - a baseball player knows what it is like to be up there in the 9th with runners on and the game on the line.

Trying to turn baseball into a science is awful and naive. And it has had the accidental effect of making the game positively fucking boring.

[branchinator]

I like baseball but I just can't get into the SABRmetrics nerdfest. There's nothing more annoying than a stat nerd proudly proclaiming that BA, RBI, ERA, etc. are worthless stats. They can be flawed but they're certainly not worthless.

They're worthless to SABR dorks because they are trying (unsuccessfully) to put a dollar value on every minor aspect of every player's game, and they refuse to admit there are certain things that are undefinable, like clutchness. A SABR douche will ramble on and on about sample size - a baseball player knows what it is like to be up there in the 9th with runners on and the game on the line.

Trying to turn baseball into a science is awful and naive. And it has had the accidental effect of making the game positively fucking boring.

Yup. I especially like the "walk is as good as a hit" mantra. Sure, it is...when nobody is on base. A walk with the bases loaded scores 1 run. A hit almost always scores 2. A walk with men on 1st and 3rd loads the bases. A hit scores a run. And I don't need to know what a player's OPS is when he's down 1-2 in the count during a day game on the road after the all-star break. Basketball is going down the same path with all this PER crap.

[flyingelvii]

Again, the "traditional" line is not meaningless, it's just overrated. I don't know why people's panties get all bunched up when people try to look beyond the conventional.

And regarding the walk/hit thing, it's all about win probability. A walk with runners on in a close game is worth less than a hit but if it's in, say, the second inning in a 0-0 game, the change in win probability is negligible. But keep relying on sportswriting greats like Bill Plashcke instead of a Joe Pos to get baseball info.

[pick6pedro]

By the time the Sox get healthy I fear it will be too late and the annual August slide is right around the corner

What the fuck is the annual August slide besides something you made up?

Edit: I figured it out. "Annual" refers to August of 2006 when Jason Johnson and Kyle Snyder prominently featured in the Red Sox rotation. They've been over .500, usually comfortably so, in August in all other years with Tito at the helm.

Amen brother.

Bill Hall, 10th dong. Eff you Pedro.

Sure, his 6th since being forced into starting. I guess we can just ignore the .237 BA (where he was supposed to improve dramatically with an every day role), right big fella? I suppose you're just goading me for a response, though, right?

Hit his 11th yesterday,

He had 6 up through last night since being forced to start.

Thought you moneyball guys didn't care about mundane things like batting average.

[branchinator]

Again, the "traditional" line is not meaningless, it's just overrated. I don't know why people's panties get all bunched up when people try to look beyond the conventional.

And regarding the walk/hit thing, it's all about win probability. A walk with runners on in a close game is worth less than a hit but if it's in, say, the second inning in a 0-0 game, the change in win probability is negligible. But keep relying on sportswriting greats like Bill Plashcke instead of a Joe Pos to get baseball info.

Negligible? A walk with 2 outs and runners on base is almost always worse than a hit regardless of the inning. And I don't even know who Bill Plashke is.

[flyingelvii]

Meant to say generally negligible. It happens so early in the game that there's a lot of opportunities to change it. It varies situation by situation of course so this is just a quick and dirty explanation.

Plashke is a blowhard on Around the Horn that bashes anythin not traditional. Joe Pos is the Senior baseball writer for SI, pretty sure he's a member of SABR, and is probably the best sportswriter in the nation.

[EagleNYC]

I like baseball but I just can't get into the SABRmetrics nerdfest. There's nothing more annoying than a stat nerd proudly proclaiming that BA, RBI, ERA, etc. are worthless stats. They can be flawed but they're certainly not worthless.

They're worthless to SABR dorks because they are trying (unsuccessfully) to put a dollar value on every minor aspect of every player's game, and they refuse to admit there are certain things that are undefinable, like clutchness. A SABR douche will ramble on and on about sample size - a baseball player knows what it is like to be up there in the 9th with runners on and the game on the line.

Trying to turn baseball into a science is awful and naive. And it has had the accidental effect of making the game positively fucking boring.

To the extent that anyone (SABR or otherwise) thinks that they can "figure out" baseball, they are a fool. I think that most SABR-heads think they are getting a better sense of a player's value/ability by looking at stats- some fans seem to think that this means they are some higher level of being. As much as anything else, pressure matters. Driving in 85 runs (or, if you prefer, a .400 OBP) on the Royals when you play in precisely zero meaningful games a year should probably have it's own statistical adjustment.

[flyingelvii]

I like baseball but I just can't get into the SABRmetrics nerdfest. There's nothing more annoying than a stat nerd proudly proclaiming that BA, RBI, ERA, etc. are worthless stats. They can be flawed but they're certainly not worthless.

They're worthless to SABR dorks because they are trying (unsuccessfully) to put a dollar value on every minor aspect of every player's game, and they refuse to admit there are certain things that are undefinable, like clutchness. A SABR douche will ramble on and on about sample size - a baseball player knows what it is like to be up there in the 9th with runners on and the game on the line.

Trying to turn baseball into a science is awful and naive. And it has had the accidental effect of making the game positively fucking boring.

To the extent that anyone (SABR or otherwise) thinks that they can "figure out" baseball, they are a fool. I think that most SABR-heads think they are getting a better sense of a player's value/ability by looking at stats- some fans seem to think that this means they are some higher level of being. As much as anything else, pressure matters. Driving in 85 runs (or, if you prefer, a .400 OBP) on the Royals when you play in precisely zero meaningful games a year should probably have it's own statistical adjustment.

Stop being so god damn rational.

[branchinator]

Yankees about to trade for Berkman. Looks like we're going to see a Lakers/Yankees championship combo for the 2nd straight year.

[flyingelvii]

Berkman has one hell of a L/R platoon split. Mashes righties but can't hit lefties and hasn't been able to since 2005. Hopefully this means Berkman becomes the full-time DH.

Deal's not done yet (have a 24-hour waiting period or something) but it looks to be. Wouldn't be disappointed if it turns out like the Lee deal, so long as Dunn isn't the fallback. Dunn is far and away a better player than Berkman.

[twballgame9]

Big Papi, grand slam last night. I think that is 22.

[Shredder]

Kearns and Berkman add depth to the Yankees and Wood is another arm (or at least a body) in the bullpen. As a left-handed batter and full-time DH, Berkman will hit some jacks for them. Kearns won't have much of an impact. Although the Red Sox needed relievers, I wanted nothing to do with Kerry Wood, his 1.60 WHIP, meltdowns, arm issues and bad contract. Soria would have been nice but he wasn't going anywhere. The Jays were asking too much for Downs but there really weren't any other relievers on the market worth their asking price. I actually do think Bowden and Doubrount will be better additions than the oft-mentioned relievers. Plus, someone might pop up on the waiver wire.

[twballgame9]

Middle relief is the easiest thing to get other than over the hill outfielders after the waiver deadline. Many teams put overpriced relievers on waivers as a matter of course. Last year, Boston got Billy Wagner. No one wants to claim a closer that lost his job, pay him $8 million bucks, and have him be a set up man unless they really need him.

[branchinator]

Here's the monthly comparison of Papi/Teixeira

Papi
AVG: .258
OBP: .370
SLG: .535
OPS: .905
HR: 22
RBI: 71

Teixeira
AVG: .256
OBP: .370
SLG: .476
OPS: .846
HR: 21
RBI: 74

It's almost a dead heat now but Papi gets the advantage due to his superior slugging. Not bad for a player who sucks.

[BCEagle74]

Red Sox are muerto.

Tampa Bay has matured.

The Red Sox need a major Yankee and Ray losing streak and that is very tough.

I can see Tampa and the Yankees winning 97+ easily.

Tampa goes 32-26 and ends up the Sox need to go 37-20 just to tie and that is .650 baseball.

Sox would have to match Tampa (even the Yankees) win for win and then +2! ....and then take 5-1 head to head in their last 6 tilts.

You have to stay in close contact of less than 3/4 games going into September.

The Sox need to busta move in August. I still say they are muerto.

Maybe they claim Manny back off of waivers when the Dodgers surrender soon...

Maybe Dunn clears waivers too all the way to the Red Sox winning record... and maybe a donkey comes flying out my ass!

[EagleNYC]

Youkilis is out for the year. I think it's all over except for the shouting. It would have been impressive to make up 7 games in the loss in 54 games if he were at full strength.

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=5440748

[flyingelvii]

So begins the start of The Curse of the Unassuming Canadian Left Fielder.

[twballgame9]

Bill Hall, two more dongs for 15. Just sayin'.

[branchinator]

Nice job today, Papelbon. Last night's Yanks/Rangers game and today's Sox/Jays game just highlighted the difference between the Red Sox and Yankees. Their closer is the man and ours is a loser.

[flyingelvii]

Theo just absolutely ran a train on the draft this year. Spent about $10 million but their farm system is pretty well stocked now.

[EagleNYC]

Yanks up 1 on the Rays, 6.5 (7 in loss) on the Sox. Sox trailing Rays by 5.5 with 38 games left. With the way Vazquez and Burnett have looked, the Rays look like the team best equipped for the playoffs.

[flyingelvii]

Pedroia's back on the DL after getting off it for 2 days IIRC. How JD Drew is one of three regulars to not see the DL this year is ironic.

[twballgame9]

Nothing in the world pleases me more than watching David Ortiz leg out a triple.