bignick33 {l Wrote}:EagleNYC {l Wrote}:flyingelvii {l Wrote}:campion {l Wrote}:Bobby Cox is the only manager on the field today who deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with Connie Mack or John McGraw. I would take Billy Southworth, Bill McKechnie, Joe McCarthy or Joe Cronin over most every one of these bums today with their laptops and law degrees.
Casey Stengel remains the most overrated manager in baseball history.
So they're good because they're old and relied on certain adages that have proven to be flat out wrong over by the people with laptops and law degrees. Great.
Managing a baseball team is not the same as making a mechanical drawing. The new data analysis is far more significant for general managers in evaluating a player than for in-game strategy. Are we going to re-hash the "don't bunt! EVER!!!" argument? Or the "this guy is awesome because he can walk with runners on 1st and 3rd and not drive in the run" argument? Steals? Putting on a hit and run? Hogwash!
You're missing the point if you don't think managers should be knowledgeably about baseball probabilities.
No, I'm assailing the arrogance of those that proclaim it as sacred knowledge, to the detriment of over 100 years of collected wisdom. They are not mutually exclusive. A shrewd manager should harness both, and eschew that which doesn't work (like the bunting prohibition).
The other issue is that, as refined as the SABR crew has gotten, they refuse to acknowledge that 1) their metrics fail to measure things that are measurable (is the guy a good bunter? is the runner fast and able? is the score late and close? Do they have a strikeout pitcher on the mound? Then why aren't we bunting? - To a lesser extent, the comedy of fielding metrics) and 2) there are things that can't be measured. Yes, there is such a thing as a clutch hitter. The mental aspect of baseball is profound.
Baseball is not blackjack.
Actually, this years Red Sox team could be a great test case for the bunt/never bunt case, because I envision them with plenty of 1 and 2 run games in the 8th and 9th innings. We'll see what happens.