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Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:12 am
by DavidGordonsFoot
hansen wrote:Orb is a dumb name for a horse.


Just speculating here, but it's probably a derivation from the horse's sire, Malibu Moon. Moon... Orb... at least that's as good an explanation I can come up with. I haven't read anything from the owners explaining why they chose that name.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 8:28 am
by TobaccoRoadEagle
stupid ballwasher. the ciorrect answer was

SHUT UP HANSEN

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 9:38 am
by twballgame9
stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 10:54 am
by TobaccoRoadEagle
twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 11:16 am
by twballgame9
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no


You aren't as funny as 9903.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 11:23 am
by TobaccoRoadEagle
twballgame9 wrote:
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no


You aren't as funny as 9903.

that's quite the compliment. thank you...

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 11:29 am
by twballgame9
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no


You aren't as funny as 9903.

that's quite the compliment. thank you...


I'm glad you got it.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 11:31 am
by TobaccoRoadEagle
twballgame9 wrote:
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no


You aren't as funny as 9903.

that's quite the compliment. thank you...


I'm glad you got it.

i'm not from philly/arizona

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 9:38 am
by DavidGordonsFoot
Preakness post positions and morning lines are out. This is not a good race to make money on.

Orb is even money, and will probably go off at 2:5 when all is said and done. He is head and shoulders better than the rest of the field and is the choice, but stranger things (ie Barbaro) have happened, and the win bet is not worth the risk for a 2:5 or 3:5 payout.

If I had to make one wager today, I would bet Will Take Charge to show. He had a shitty Derby, but has a history of running poorly in the mud. I think you can throw his Derby run out because it should be a fast track Saturday. WTC has beaten other horses in this race (Oxbow) before. WTC won the Rebel Stakes. The last 3 Rebel Stakes winners to enter the Preakness (Lookin at Lucky, Curlin, Smarty Jones) won it. His morning line is 12-1 and I expect he'll still pay 3-1 to show, which is not bad for what I consider a low-risk wager.

I'm sorry that's the best I can do. If I see something else when I read the form, I will post it here.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 9:50 am
by TobaccoRoadEagle
Thanks bw. Can you tell us which horses or jockeys will be cheating? I find that sort of infor proves to be important when placing a wager. TIA

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 10:19 am
by DavidGordonsFoot
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:Thanks bw. Can you tell us which horses or jockeys will be cheating? I find that sort of infor proves to be important when placing a wager. TIA


Doug O'Neill trains Goldencents. Racing insiders call him "Drug O'Neill" behind his back. Take this info for what it's worth. He was I'll Have Another's trainer for last year's Triple Crown run.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Fri Jun 07, 2013 5:04 pm
by DavidGordonsFoot
I don't expect anyone to take my advice given how I whiffed on the Preakness, but I might as well finish this series.

If the track is fast or good, I like Overanalyze. If the track is muddy or sloppy, I'm picking Revolutionary.

I don't think Orb is a good play. We haven't had a Derby/Belmont winner since 1995.

Preakness/Belmont winners are more common, but the Preakness was giftwrapped for Oxbow when he was allowed to set a slow pace unchallenged. As long as Freedom Child and Palace Malice aren't scratched, that won't happen again.

If you're looking for a long shot, I like Giant Finish. Edgar Prado is aboard and knows this track better than anyone. He's won this race aboard long shots (36-1 and 70-1) twice in the past 11 years. Also, the horse's trainer is the brother of a well-known cheat.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 2:59 pm
by DavidGordonsFoot
I've never had as much trouble settling on a Derby pick as I've had this year. Hoppertunity was my pick until he scratched Thursday.

Gun to my head, I'd pick California Chrome, but the risk/reward is not there at 5:2. I'm playing a 6 horse exacta box. If CC wins with one of my other 5 placing, I think I will still break even. Hopefully, my longer prices come in and I make money.

Danza
CC
Wildcat Red
Intense Holiday
Candy Boy
Wicked Strong

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 5:43 pm
by DavidGordonsFoot
That was a kick in the balls. I blame Tony Danza.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 9:39 am
by hansen
DavidGordonsFoot wrote:I've never had as much trouble settling on a Derby pick as I've had this year. Hoppertunity was my pick until he scratched Thursday.

Gun to my head, I'd pick California Chrome, but the risk/reward is not there at 5:2. I'm playing a 6 horse exacta box. If CC wins with one of my other 5 placing, I think I will still break even. Hopefully, my longer prices come in and I make money.

Danza
CC
Wildcat Red
Intense Holiday
Candy Boy
Wicked Strong


The odds for CC were not there.
If i'm betting horses, I always go longshots that still could realistically win.
I almost put money on WickedStrong (9-1?) but this guy that knows horses better than I ever could said that CC was going to be almost unbeatable at the derby.
He was predicting a 5 length victory so I stayed away for the reasons you mentioned.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 10:30 am
by DavidGordonsFoot
On paper, Untapable is the only 3-year-old talented enough to beat CC in the Preakness, but Asmussen is not running her. The one thing that may undo CC at Pimlico is the short layoff. None of the challengers can beat him in a vacuum. CC will go off odds-on. I'll probably bet the field.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:57 am
by commavegarage
DavidGordonsFoot wrote:On paper, Untapable is the only 3-year-old talented enough to beat CC in the Preakness, but Asmussen is not running her. The one thing that may undo CC at Pimlico is the short layoff. None of the challengers can beat him in a vacuum. CC will go off odds-on. I'll probably bet the field.


did francesa hit the trifecta on Saturday? i feel like there were rumors he did?

king

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Wed May 07, 2014 1:59 pm
by DavidGordonsFoot
commavegarage wrote:
DavidGordonsFoot wrote:On paper, Untapable is the only 3-year-old talented enough to beat CC in the Preakness, but Asmussen is not running her. The one thing that may undo CC at Pimlico is the short layoff. None of the challengers can beat him in a vacuum. CC will go off odds-on. I'll probably bet the field.


did francesa hit the trifecta on Saturday? i feel like there were rumors he did?

king


I don't know. I do know Phil Mushnick wrote about Francesa tankmushing his Derby bet in Sunday's Post. The trifecta paid 1711-1, would be an impressive score even for a king.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 7:02 pm
by DavidGordonsFoot
CC made 3/5 morning line favorite. I expect that to hold steady. Leaning toward Ride on Curlin currently.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Sat May 17, 2014 2:58 pm
by DavidGordonsFoot
Win bets on Bayern, Social Inclusion and Ride on Curlin.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Sun May 18, 2014 6:20 pm
by commavegarage
you going to belmont?

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Sun May 18, 2014 6:28 pm
by DavidGordonsFoot
commavegarage wrote:you going to belmont?

No. My kid's school musical is that day.

It's for the best. Belmont is not equipped to handle 100K+ people.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 5:07 pm
by DavidGordonsFoot
EX BX with CC, Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve.

I also like longshot Matuszak to hit the board.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Sun Jun 08, 2014 11:31 am
by TobaccoRoadEagle
DavidGordonsFoot wrote:EX BX with CC, Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve.

I also like longshot Matuszak to hit the board.

None out of three ain't bad.

Shouldn't have let you tripod significant other make the pick...

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Sun Jun 08, 2014 4:08 pm
by twballgame9
Betting on that tiny horse to win the Belmont was not the greatest of ideas. Had no chance.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 7:35 am
by DavidGordonsFoot
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
DavidGordonsFoot wrote:EX BX with CC, Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve.

I also like longshot Matuszak to hit the board.

None out of three ain't bad.

Shouldn't have let you tripod significant other make the pick...


Belmont winner hasn't come out of the Peter Pan Stakes since Issues was pleasuring you, then Saturday the 1-2 horses in the 2014 Peter Pan go 1-2 in the Belmont. Go figure.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2016 9:37 am
by DavidGordonsFoot
Don't overthink it. The pick is Nyquist.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2016 6:08 pm
by DavidGordonsFoot
dear higgi,

Please comment on my analysis and suck my dick.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2016 11:52 am
by twballgame9
Sweet jesus, just when I think this board can't get any worse.

Re: triple crown handicapping

PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2016 12:18 pm
by TobaccoRoadEagle
twballgame9 wrote:Sweet jesus, just when I think this board can't get any worse.

i had similar thoughts. i'm not sure if he's gone off his meds, gotten on new meds, or what but his new shtick tangents are unbearable.

higgi really is the worst. and not in a pride-in-being-an-asshat sort of way; in more of a holy-shit-are-you-serious-right-now sort of way. my colored powers are debating whether it's time to do something with him before he gets even worse