triple crown handicapping

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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Thu May 09, 2013 8:12 am

hansen wrote:Orb is a dumb name for a horse.


Just speculating here, but it's probably a derivation from the horse's sire, Malibu Moon. Moon... Orb... at least that's as good an explanation I can come up with. I haven't read anything from the owners explaining why they chose that name.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Thu May 09, 2013 8:28 am

stupid ballwasher. the ciorrect answer was

SHUT UP HANSEN
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Thu May 09, 2013 9:38 am

stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Thu May 09, 2013 10:54 am

twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Thu May 09, 2013 11:16 am

TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no


You aren't as funny as 9903.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Thu May 09, 2013 11:23 am

twballgame9 wrote:
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no


You aren't as funny as 9903.

that's quite the compliment. thank you...
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Thu May 09, 2013 11:29 am

TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no


You aren't as funny as 9903.

that's quite the compliment. thank you...


I'm glad you got it.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Thu May 09, 2013 11:31 am

twballgame9 wrote:
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.


no


You aren't as funny as 9903.

that's quite the compliment. thank you...


I'm glad you got it.

i'm not from philly/arizona
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Thu May 16, 2013 9:38 am

Preakness post positions and morning lines are out. This is not a good race to make money on.

Orb is even money, and will probably go off at 2:5 when all is said and done. He is head and shoulders better than the rest of the field and is the choice, but stranger things (ie Barbaro) have happened, and the win bet is not worth the risk for a 2:5 or 3:5 payout.

If I had to make one wager today, I would bet Will Take Charge to show. He had a shitty Derby, but has a history of running poorly in the mud. I think you can throw his Derby run out because it should be a fast track Saturday. WTC has beaten other horses in this race (Oxbow) before. WTC won the Rebel Stakes. The last 3 Rebel Stakes winners to enter the Preakness (Lookin at Lucky, Curlin, Smarty Jones) won it. His morning line is 12-1 and I expect he'll still pay 3-1 to show, which is not bad for what I consider a low-risk wager.

I'm sorry that's the best I can do. If I see something else when I read the form, I will post it here.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Thu May 16, 2013 9:50 am

Thanks bw. Can you tell us which horses or jockeys will be cheating? I find that sort of infor proves to be important when placing a wager. TIA
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Thu May 16, 2013 10:19 am

TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:Thanks bw. Can you tell us which horses or jockeys will be cheating? I find that sort of infor proves to be important when placing a wager. TIA


Doug O'Neill trains Goldencents. Racing insiders call him "Drug O'Neill" behind his back. Take this info for what it's worth. He was I'll Have Another's trainer for last year's Triple Crown run.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Fri Jun 07, 2013 5:04 pm

I don't expect anyone to take my advice given how I whiffed on the Preakness, but I might as well finish this series.

If the track is fast or good, I like Overanalyze. If the track is muddy or sloppy, I'm picking Revolutionary.

I don't think Orb is a good play. We haven't had a Derby/Belmont winner since 1995.

Preakness/Belmont winners are more common, but the Preakness was giftwrapped for Oxbow when he was allowed to set a slow pace unchallenged. As long as Freedom Child and Palace Malice aren't scratched, that won't happen again.

If you're looking for a long shot, I like Giant Finish. Edgar Prado is aboard and knows this track better than anyone. He's won this race aboard long shots (36-1 and 70-1) twice in the past 11 years. Also, the horse's trainer is the brother of a well-known cheat.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Sat May 03, 2014 2:59 pm

I've never had as much trouble settling on a Derby pick as I've had this year. Hoppertunity was my pick until he scratched Thursday.

Gun to my head, I'd pick California Chrome, but the risk/reward is not there at 5:2. I'm playing a 6 horse exacta box. If CC wins with one of my other 5 placing, I think I will still break even. Hopefully, my longer prices come in and I make money.

Danza
CC
Wildcat Red
Intense Holiday
Candy Boy
Wicked Strong
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Sat May 03, 2014 5:43 pm

That was a kick in the balls. I blame Tony Danza.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby hansen on Mon May 05, 2014 9:39 am

DavidGordonsFoot wrote:I've never had as much trouble settling on a Derby pick as I've had this year. Hoppertunity was my pick until he scratched Thursday.

Gun to my head, I'd pick California Chrome, but the risk/reward is not there at 5:2. I'm playing a 6 horse exacta box. If CC wins with one of my other 5 placing, I think I will still break even. Hopefully, my longer prices come in and I make money.

Danza
CC
Wildcat Red
Intense Holiday
Candy Boy
Wicked Strong


The odds for CC were not there.
If i'm betting horses, I always go longshots that still could realistically win.
I almost put money on WickedStrong (9-1?) but this guy that knows horses better than I ever could said that CC was going to be almost unbeatable at the derby.
He was predicting a 5 length victory so I stayed away for the reasons you mentioned.
HANSENPOST :shrug

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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Mon May 05, 2014 10:30 am

On paper, Untapable is the only 3-year-old talented enough to beat CC in the Preakness, but Asmussen is not running her. The one thing that may undo CC at Pimlico is the short layoff. None of the challengers can beat him in a vacuum. CC will go off odds-on. I'll probably bet the field.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby commavegarage on Wed May 07, 2014 8:57 am

DavidGordonsFoot wrote:On paper, Untapable is the only 3-year-old talented enough to beat CC in the Preakness, but Asmussen is not running her. The one thing that may undo CC at Pimlico is the short layoff. None of the challengers can beat him in a vacuum. CC will go off odds-on. I'll probably bet the field.


did francesa hit the trifecta on Saturday? i feel like there were rumors he did?

king
hey huerta if you readin this dont tell jimmy **** that i put xlax in teh chuck wagons...lol
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Wed May 07, 2014 1:59 pm

commavegarage wrote:
DavidGordonsFoot wrote:On paper, Untapable is the only 3-year-old talented enough to beat CC in the Preakness, but Asmussen is not running her. The one thing that may undo CC at Pimlico is the short layoff. None of the challengers can beat him in a vacuum. CC will go off odds-on. I'll probably bet the field.


did francesa hit the trifecta on Saturday? i feel like there were rumors he did?

king


I don't know. I do know Phil Mushnick wrote about Francesa tankmushing his Derby bet in Sunday's Post. The trifecta paid 1711-1, would be an impressive score even for a king.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Wed May 14, 2014 7:02 pm

CC made 3/5 morning line favorite. I expect that to hold steady. Leaning toward Ride on Curlin currently.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Sat May 17, 2014 2:58 pm

Win bets on Bayern, Social Inclusion and Ride on Curlin.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby commavegarage on Sun May 18, 2014 6:20 pm

you going to belmont?
hey huerta if you readin this dont tell jimmy **** that i put xlax in teh chuck wagons...lol
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Sun May 18, 2014 6:28 pm

commavegarage wrote:you going to belmont?

No. My kid's school musical is that day.

It's for the best. Belmont is not equipped to handle 100K+ people.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Sat Jun 07, 2014 5:07 pm

EX BX with CC, Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve.

I also like longshot Matuszak to hit the board.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Sun Jun 08, 2014 11:31 am

DavidGordonsFoot wrote:EX BX with CC, Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve.

I also like longshot Matuszak to hit the board.

None out of three ain't bad.

Shouldn't have let you tripod significant other make the pick...
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Sun Jun 08, 2014 4:08 pm

Betting on that tiny horse to win the Belmont was not the greatest of ideas. Had no chance.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Tue Jun 10, 2014 7:35 am

TobaccoRoadEagle wrote:
DavidGordonsFoot wrote:EX BX with CC, Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve.

I also like longshot Matuszak to hit the board.

None out of three ain't bad.

Shouldn't have let you tripod significant other make the pick...


Belmont winner hasn't come out of the Peter Pan Stakes since Issues was pleasuring you, then Saturday the 1-2 horses in the 2014 Peter Pan go 1-2 in the Belmont. Go figure.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Fri May 06, 2016 9:37 am

Don't overthink it. The pick is Nyquist.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Sat May 07, 2016 6:08 pm

dear higgi,

Please comment on my analysis and suck my dick.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Tue May 10, 2016 11:52 am

Sweet jesus, just when I think this board can't get any worse.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Tue May 10, 2016 12:18 pm

twballgame9 wrote:Sweet jesus, just when I think this board can't get any worse.

i had similar thoughts. i'm not sure if he's gone off his meds, gotten on new meds, or what but his new shtick tangents are unbearable.

higgi really is the worst. and not in a pride-in-being-an-asshat sort of way; in more of a holy-shit-are-you-serious-right-now sort of way. my colored powers are debating whether it's time to do something with him before he gets even worse
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