triple crown handicapping

[DavidGordonsFoot]

Orb is a dumb name for a horse.

Just speculating here, but it's probably a derivation from the horse's sire, Malibu Moon. Moon... Orb... at least that's as good an explanation I can come up with. I haven't read anything from the owners explaining why they chose that name.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

stupid ballwasher. the ciorrect answer was

SHUT UP HANSEN

[twballgame9]

stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.

no

[twballgame9]

stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.

no

You aren't as funny as 9903.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.

no

You aren't as funny as 9903.

that's quite the compliment. thank you...

[twballgame9]

stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.

no

You aren't as funny as 9903.

that's quite the compliment. thank you...

I'm glad you got it.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

stop fucking making a good triple crown thread about horses, jerks.

no

You aren't as funny as 9903.

that's quite the compliment. thank you...

I'm glad you got it.

i'm not from philly/arizona

[DavidGordonsFoot]

Preakness post positions and morning lines are out. This is not a good race to make money on.

Orb is even money, and will probably go off at 2:5 when all is said and done. He is head and shoulders better than the rest of the field and is the choice, but stranger things (ie Barbaro) have happened, and the win bet is not worth the risk for a 2:5 or 3:5 payout.

If I had to make one wager today, I would bet Will Take Charge to show. He had a shitty Derby, but has a history of running poorly in the mud. I think you can throw his Derby run out because it should be a fast track Saturday. WTC has beaten other horses in this race (Oxbow) before. WTC won the Rebel Stakes. The last 3 Rebel Stakes winners to enter the Preakness (Lookin at Lucky, Curlin, Smarty Jones) won it. His morning line is 12-1 and I expect he'll still pay 3-1 to show, which is not bad for what I consider a low-risk wager.

I'm sorry that's the best I can do. If I see something else when I read the form, I will post it here.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

Thanks bw. Can you tell us which horses or jockeys will be cheating? I find that sort of infor proves to be important when placing a wager. TIA

[DavidGordonsFoot]

Thanks bw. Can you tell us which horses or jockeys will be cheating? I find that sort of infor proves to be important when placing a wager. TIA

Doug O'Neill trains Goldencents. Racing insiders call him "Drug O'Neill" behind his back. Take this info for what it's worth. He was I'll Have Another's trainer for last year's Triple Crown run.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

I don't expect anyone to take my advice given how I whiffed on the Preakness, but I might as well finish this series.

If the track is fast or good, I like Overanalyze. If the track is muddy or sloppy, I'm picking Revolutionary.

I don't think Orb is a good play. We haven't had a Derby/Belmont winner since 1995.

Preakness/Belmont winners are more common, but the Preakness was giftwrapped for Oxbow when he was allowed to set a slow pace unchallenged. As long as Freedom Child and Palace Malice aren't scratched, that won't happen again.

If you're looking for a long shot, I like Giant Finish. Edgar Prado is aboard and knows this track better than anyone. He's won this race aboard long shots (36-1 and 70-1) twice in the past 11 years. Also, the horse's trainer is the brother of a well-known cheat.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

I've never had as much trouble settling on a Derby pick as I've had this year. Hoppertunity was my pick until he scratched Thursday.

Gun to my head, I'd pick California Chrome, but the risk/reward is not there at 5:2. I'm playing a 6 horse exacta box. If CC wins with one of my other 5 placing, I think I will still break even. Hopefully, my longer prices come in and I make money.

Danza
CC
Wildcat Red
Intense Holiday
Candy Boy
Wicked Strong

[DavidGordonsFoot]

That was a kick in the balls. I blame Tony Danza.

[hansen]

I've never had as much trouble settling on a Derby pick as I've had this year. Hoppertunity was my pick until he scratched Thursday.

Gun to my head, I'd pick California Chrome, but the risk/reward is not there at 5:2. I'm playing a 6 horse exacta box. If CC wins with one of my other 5 placing, I think I will still break even. Hopefully, my longer prices come in and I make money.

Danza
CC
Wildcat Red
Intense Holiday
Candy Boy
Wicked Strong

The odds for CC were not there.
If i'm betting horses, I always go longshots that still could realistically win.
I almost put money on WickedStrong (9-1?) but this guy that knows horses better than I ever could said that CC was going to be almost unbeatable at the derby.
He was predicting a 5 length victory so I stayed away for the reasons you mentioned.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

On paper, Untapable is the only 3-year-old talented enough to beat CC in the Preakness, but Asmussen is not running her. The one thing that may undo CC at Pimlico is the short layoff. None of the challengers can beat him in a vacuum. CC will go off odds-on. I'll probably bet the field.

[commavegarage]

On paper, Untapable is the only 3-year-old talented enough to beat CC in the Preakness, but Asmussen is not running her. The one thing that may undo CC at Pimlico is the short layoff. None of the challengers can beat him in a vacuum. CC will go off odds-on. I'll probably bet the field.

did francesa hit the trifecta on Saturday? i feel like there were rumors he did?

king

[DavidGordonsFoot]

On paper, Untapable is the only 3-year-old talented enough to beat CC in the Preakness, but Asmussen is not running her. The one thing that may undo CC at Pimlico is the short layoff. None of the challengers can beat him in a vacuum. CC will go off odds-on. I'll probably bet the field.

did francesa hit the trifecta on Saturday? i feel like there were rumors he did?

king

I don't know. I do know Phil Mushnick wrote about Francesa tankmushing his Derby bet in Sunday's Post. The trifecta paid 1711-1, would be an impressive score even for a king.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

CC made 3/5 morning line favorite. I expect that to hold steady. Leaning toward Ride on Curlin currently.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

Win bets on Bayern, Social Inclusion and Ride on Curlin.

[commavegarage]

you going to belmont?

[DavidGordonsFoot]

you going to belmont?

No. My kid's school musical is that day.

It's for the best. Belmont is not equipped to handle 100K+ people.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

EX BX with CC, Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve.

I also like longshot Matuszak to hit the board.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

EX BX with CC, Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve.

I also like longshot Matuszak to hit the board.

None out of three ain't bad.

Shouldn't have let you tripod significant other make the pick...

[twballgame9]

Betting on that tiny horse to win the Belmont was not the greatest of ideas. Had no chance.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

EX BX with CC, Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Commanding Curve.

I also like longshot Matuszak to hit the board.

None out of three ain't bad.

Shouldn't have let you tripod significant other make the pick...

Belmont winner hasn't come out of the Peter Pan Stakes since Issues was pleasuring you, then Saturday the 1-2 horses in the 2014 Peter Pan go 1-2 in the Belmont. Go figure.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

Don't overthink it. The pick is Nyquist.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

dear higgi,

Please comment on my analysis and suck my dick.

[twballgame9]

Sweet jesus, just when I think this board can't get any worse.

[TobaccoRoadEagle]

Sweet jesus, just when I think this board can't get any worse.

i had similar thoughts. i'm not sure if he's gone off his meds, gotten on new meds, or what but his new shtick tangents are unbearable.

higgi really is the worst. and not in a pride-in-being-an-asshat sort of way; in more of a holy-shit-are-you-serious-right-now sort of way. my colored powers are debating whether it's time to do something with him before he gets even worse