by DavidGordonsFoot on Thu May 16, 2013 9:38 am
Preakness post positions and morning lines are out. This is not a good race to make money on.
Orb is even money, and will probably go off at 2:5 when all is said and done. He is head and shoulders better than the rest of the field and is the choice, but stranger things (ie Barbaro) have happened, and the win bet is not worth the risk for a 2:5 or 3:5 payout.
If I had to make one wager today, I would bet Will Take Charge to show. He had a shitty Derby, but has a history of running poorly in the mud. I think you can throw his Derby run out because it should be a fast track Saturday. WTC has beaten other horses in this race (Oxbow) before. WTC won the Rebel Stakes. The last 3 Rebel Stakes winners to enter the Preakness (Lookin at Lucky, Curlin, Smarty Jones) won it. His morning line is 12-1 and I expect he'll still pay 3-1 to show, which is not bad for what I consider a low-risk wager.
I'm sorry that's the best I can do. If I see something else when I read the form, I will post it here.
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."