triple crown handicapping

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triple crown handicapping

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:31 am

dear ballwasher,

please put your thoughts here.

hugs and kisses,

tre
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 8:24 am

I am going with Miguel Cabrera. I think he will get the HR numbers up.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 11:15 am

i hate the whole concept of the triple crown. it only focuses on one of the three most important statistics a major league hitter needs to help his team win. hate to get all Sabermetric about this, but a "true" triple crown winner would lead in these three categorites:

  • RBIs
  • On Base Percentage
  • number of pitches faced

first two are obvious, but numbers of pitches faced is huge because the number of pitches you take, is an exact percentage of the total day's output of the opposing team's starting pitcher you are actually consuming. you want to win, get to their relievers before the 5th inning by crushing the starting pitcher's pitch count, you are (more often than not) going to win and you are really going to win those 3rd and 4th games in a given "series" because that other team's bullpen will be utterly wasted
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby claver2010 on Fri May 03, 2013 11:17 am

checked for a space but...

innocentbystander wrote:a "true" triple crown winner would lead in these three categorites:

  • RBIs


no

if we're going sabr
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 11:24 am

claver2010 wrote:checked for a space but...

innocentbystander wrote:a "true" triple crown winner would lead in these three categorites:

  • RBIs


no

if we're going sabr


RBIs are critical. every homer counts. every single that drives in a base runner counts. every sac fly that drives in a runner counts.

you going "sabr", you are buying "wins." to buy "wins" you must buy "runs."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 11:42 am

Then why don't "runs" count?
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 11:49 am

twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby cvilleagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:04 pm

innocentbystander wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:07 pm

cvilleagle wrote:
innocentbystander wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby cvilleagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:16 pm

twballgame9 wrote:
cvilleagle wrote:
innocentbystander wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.


I wouldn't discount them entirely, either. But they're also far from an important statistic. For every RBI that's the result of timely or clutch hitting there's another that's in the middle of a blowout and irrelevant, and there's a whole lot of luck just in getting the opportunities.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Fri May 03, 2013 12:19 pm

twballgame9 wrote:
cvilleagle wrote:
innocentbystander wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.

The reason it's discounted is because it's largely based upon guys getting on base ahead of said player and less of an actual indication of the players skill. You throw 2002 Manny in the Mariners lineup and he would struggle to put up 100 RBI. They're not pointless but there's better stuff out there that gives you an indication of a players ability outside of a number that needs a fair amount of context when comparing players.

Edit: I guess this goes to the luck component Civil noted above that I missed due to my poor reading abilities.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:20 pm

cvilleagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
cvilleagle wrote:
innocentbystander wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.


I wouldn't discount them entirely, either. But they're also far from an important statistic. For every RBI that's the result of timely or clutch hitting there's another that's in the middle of a blowout and irrelevant, and there's a whole lot of luck just in getting the opportunities.


The same can be said for any stat. The "Mike Stanley Memorial HR in a blowout" adds to slugging and the walk in the 8th inning of a 12-4 game adds to OBP, each increasing OPS.

Over the course of 162 games, the best hitters are usually the ones driving in 100+ runs. They also happen to be on the best teams in most cases, so they have the most opportunities. But I think the 600-700 PAs account for most of the luck.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:24 pm

flyingelvii wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
cvilleagle wrote:
innocentbystander wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.

The reason it's discounted is because it's largely based upon guys getting on base ahead of said player and less of an actual indication of the players skill. You throw 2002 Manny in the Mariners lineup and he would struggle to put up 100 RBI. They're not pointless but there's better stuff out there that gives you an indication of a players ability outside of a number that needs a fair amount of context when comparing players.

Edit: I guess this goes to the luck component Civil noted above that I missed due to my poor reading abilities.


I concede your point is true. I do not agree with "luck" on a more narrow basis over a 700 PA season. Like "Ramirez had more RBI this season because he had more luck" versus your proposal that you put him in a Mariners' lineup. The latter I agree with, the former not so much.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Fri May 03, 2013 12:25 pm

twballgame9 wrote:
cvilleagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
cvilleagle wrote:
innocentbystander wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.


I wouldn't discount them entirely, either. But they're also far from an important statistic. For every RBI that's the result of timely or clutch hitting there's another that's in the middle of a blowout and irrelevant, and there's a whole lot of luck just in getting the opportunities.


The same can be said for any stat. The "Mike Stanley Memorial HR in a blowout" adds to slugging and the walk in the 8th inning of a 12-4 game adds to OBP, each increasing OPS.

Over the course of 162 games, the best hitters are usually the ones driving in 100+ runs. They also happen to be on the best teams in most cases, so they have the most opportunities. But I think the 600-700 PAs account for most of the luck.

They also now readily publish how players perform in these situations so you can help break out these different scenarios to see how they perform.

For the record, I never bought the argument that players aren't affected by the situation. They're affected less and less as they get to the majors but you can't tell me that 400 or so players go against thousand of years of human nature.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby cvilleagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:25 pm

twballgame9 wrote:
cvilleagle wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
cvilleagle wrote:
innocentbystander wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.


I wouldn't discount them entirely, either. But they're also far from an important statistic. For every RBI that's the result of timely or clutch hitting there's another that's in the middle of a blowout and irrelevant, and there's a whole lot of luck just in getting the opportunities.


The same can be said for any stat. The "Mike Stanley Memorial HR in a blowout" adds to slugging and the walk in the 8th inning of a 12-4 game adds to OBP, each increasing OPS.

Over the course of 162 games, the best hitters are usually the ones driving in 100+ runs. They also happen to be on the best teams in most cases, so they have the most opportunities. But I think the 600-700 PAs account for most of the luck.

Yeah I don't really disagree with any of that, except that some of the "luck" is in being on a good team that gets on base. Number of plate appearances really doesn't make up for that. All that being said, it's still a terrible stat for comparing hitters.

EDIT: I see that we pretty much agree.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:27 pm

Fair enough, I think we are all in agreement.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Fri May 03, 2013 12:28 pm

twballgame9 wrote:
flyingelvii wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:
cvilleagle wrote:
innocentbystander wrote:
twballgame9 wrote:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.

The reason it's discounted is because it's largely based upon guys getting on base ahead of said player and less of an actual indication of the players skill. You throw 2002 Manny in the Mariners lineup and he would struggle to put up 100 RBI. They're not pointless but there's better stuff out there that gives you an indication of a players ability outside of a number that needs a fair amount of context when comparing players.

Edit: I guess this goes to the luck component Civil noted above that I missed due to my poor reading abilities.


I concede your point is true. I do not agree with "luck" on a more narrow basis over a 700 PA season. Like "Ramirez had more RBI this season because he had more luck" versus your proposal that you put him in a Mariners' lineup. The latter I agree with, the former not so much.

Yeah I'm usually at a battle with the concept of "luck", specifically as it relates to BABIP. It's basically a quick and dirty way to explain away any anomalies in a player's performance since most people can't watch every at bat of every team. I do like using this for fantasy purposes though.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:29 pm

Back to the original point of this thread, what do we think are the chances that Cabrera repeats?
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby claver2010 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:34 pm

looks like nospace got you guys again



*i assume it's because tedwardo is :bored
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Fri May 03, 2013 12:35 pm

twballgame9 wrote:Back to the original point of this thread, what do we think are the chances that Cabrera repeats?

Traditional Triple Crown or the Nospace Crown?
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:38 pm

claver2010 wrote:looks like nospace got you guys again



*i assume it's because tedwardo is :bored


Actually I believe I have successfully hijacked TRE's thread. Because I was bored.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby cvilleagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:49 pm

twballgame9 wrote:
claver2010 wrote:looks like nospace got you guys again



*i assume it's because tedwardo is :bored


Actually I believe I have successfully hijacked TRE's thread. Because I was bored.

What do you mean, "hijacked?" He posted about the triple crown on a baseball board - this is clearly what he was asking for.

Also, pick Orb. I have a feeling about that horse.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 1:31 pm

no one hijacked anything here. it is good discussion

i am "re-evaluating" my outlook on RBIs.

i still love OBP and Total Pitches faced though
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 3:01 pm

twballgame9 wrote:Back to the original point of this thread, what do we think are the chances that Cabrera repeats?


if there will BE a (traditional) Triple Crown winner, Cabrera is likely to repeat. (only took 45 years to get one)
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby angrychicken on Sun May 05, 2013 9:46 pm

innocentbystander wrote:no one hijacked anything here. it is good discussion

i am "re-evaluating" my outlook on RBIs.

i still love OBP and Total Pitches faced though

Yup. You missed it.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Mon May 06, 2013 8:49 am

I was going to post my picks right after the post position draw last Wednesday, but that was the same time the weathermen started forecasting heavy rain, so I waited.

When NBC Sport Network went live at 1:00, I saw how bad the rain was and flushed my picks.

Track conditions and surfaces count for a lot, and three year-olds are too lightly raced to give a decent sample size for wet conditions.

Had I posted, I would have told you to bet the horses that were being underplayed against the morning line. That would have included Orb, but it also would have included 8 other horses that failed to hit the board, so it was still a losing proposition.

Prior to the weather reports, my picks were Orb, Goldencents, Overanalyze, and Will Take Charge, so I do think Orb is the real deal. He will probably go off at even money at Preakness, and rightfully so. I don't think any of the other Derby horses can beat him, especially on short rest. One thing to keep an eye on is if Bob Baffert decides to enter Governor Charlie. GC is fast enough and fresh enough to give Orb a run, especially at 9.5 furlongs.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Mon May 06, 2013 9:14 am

PS - I also would have told you to stay the fuck away from Revolutionary. I'll say what the media won't say - Calvin Borel is not the same jockey he was 3 years ago. He is probably dealing with some issues in his personal life. He was arrested for DWI in 2011 and went to rehab. Then he was suspended for fighting a fellow jockey in 2012. Since the DWI, he is winning fewer than 10% of his graded stakes starts. His apologists often point to his record at Churchill, but even that has declined, and he is off to an 0-fer-9 start this meet after Saturday.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Mon May 06, 2013 11:37 am

Is there video of this fight? Because that sounds like an entertaining and fascinating watch.
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Mon May 06, 2013 11:44 am

flyingelvii wrote:Is there video of this fight? Because that sounds like an entertaining and fascinating watch.


There is, but you will probably be disappointed. Google "Borel Castellano fight."
"I have history, and I understand history, so I know where we’ve been and where we are, and where we are trying to go, okay? But it’s been somewhere between 6.5 and 6.6 wins a year since 1980, which is 38 years. We’re at 7..."
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Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby hansen on Wed May 08, 2013 11:10 pm

Orb is a dumb name for a horse.
HANSENPOST :shrug

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