triple crown handicapping

Home of Football Tailgating, Intramural Football and the occasional baseball game
Forum rules
"The opinions expressed on this board are property of the poster and do not reflect the opinion of EagleOutsider, Boston College or Boston College Athletics"

triple crown handicapping

Postby TobaccoRoadEagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:31 am

dear ballwasher,

please put your thoughts here.

hugs and kisses,

tre
now in the street there is violence
and, and a lots of work to be done
no place to hang out our washing
and, and i can't blame all on the sun
good god we gonna rock down to electric avenue
and then we'll take it higher
User avatar
TobaccoRoadEagle
BC Guy
 
Posts: 24016
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:51 am
Location: tobaccoroad
Karma: 6074

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 8:24 am

I am going with Miguel Cabrera. I think he will get the HR numbers up.
"We remind everyone that Boston College fired a perfectly good coach because he went on a job interview, and deserves all of this." Spencer Hall
User avatar
twballgame9
BC Guy
 
Posts: 34331
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:49 am
Karma: 2491

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 11:15 am

i hate the whole concept of the triple crown. it only focuses on one of the three most important statistics a major league hitter needs to help his team win. hate to get all Sabermetric about this, but a "true" triple crown winner would lead in these three categorites:

  • RBIs
  • On Base Percentage
  • number of pitches faced

first two are obvious, but numbers of pitches faced is huge because the number of pitches you take, is an exact percentage of the total day's output of the opposing team's starting pitcher you are actually consuming. you want to win, get to their relievers before the 5th inning by crushing the starting pitcher's pitch count, you are (more often than not) going to win and you are really going to win those 3rd and 4th games in a given "series" because that other team's bullpen will be utterly wasted
Feminism: Eve eats ALL the apples, gives God the middle finder when He confronts her, and has the serpent serve Adam with an injunction ordering him to stay away from her AND to provide her food and shelter because he dragged her out of the Garden.
User avatar
innocentbystander
BC Guy
 
Posts: 21747
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:40 pm
Location: Pac-12 Hell
Karma: -3630

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby claver2010 on Fri May 03, 2013 11:17 am

checked for a space but...

innocentbystander {l Wrote}:a "true" triple crown winner would lead in these three categorites:

  • RBIs


no

if we're going sabr
Bush, George H W
Cosby, Bill
Disick, Scott
Flair, Ric
Griffin, Kathy
Khamenei, Ali
McCain, John
Pele
Soros, George
User avatar
claver2010
BC Guy
 
Posts: 20288
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 5:55 pm
Karma: 3380

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 11:24 am

claver2010 {l Wrote}:checked for a space but...

innocentbystander {l Wrote}:a "true" triple crown winner would lead in these three categorites:

  • RBIs


no

if we're going sabr


RBIs are critical. every homer counts. every single that drives in a base runner counts. every sac fly that drives in a runner counts.

you going "sabr", you are buying "wins." to buy "wins" you must buy "runs."
Feminism: Eve eats ALL the apples, gives God the middle finder when He confronts her, and has the serpent serve Adam with an injunction ordering him to stay away from her AND to provide her food and shelter because he dragged her out of the Garden.
User avatar
innocentbystander
BC Guy
 
Posts: 21747
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:40 pm
Location: Pac-12 Hell
Karma: -3630

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 11:42 am

Then why don't "runs" count?
"We remind everyone that Boston College fired a perfectly good coach because he went on a job interview, and deserves all of this." Spencer Hall
User avatar
twballgame9
BC Guy
 
Posts: 34331
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:49 am
Karma: 2491

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 11:49 am

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO
Feminism: Eve eats ALL the apples, gives God the middle finder when He confronts her, and has the serpent serve Adam with an injunction ordering him to stay away from her AND to provide her food and shelter because he dragged her out of the Garden.
User avatar
innocentbystander
BC Guy
 
Posts: 21747
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:40 pm
Location: Pac-12 Hell
Karma: -3630

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby cvilleagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:04 pm

innocentbystander {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.
Image
User avatar
cvilleagle
Devlin Hall
 
Posts: 6639
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2009 4:14 pm
Karma: 1170

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:07 pm

cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
innocentbystander {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.
"We remind everyone that Boston College fired a perfectly good coach because he went on a job interview, and deserves all of this." Spencer Hall
User avatar
twballgame9
BC Guy
 
Posts: 34331
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:49 am
Karma: 2491

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby cvilleagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:16 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
innocentbystander {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.


I wouldn't discount them entirely, either. But they're also far from an important statistic. For every RBI that's the result of timely or clutch hitting there's another that's in the middle of a blowout and irrelevant, and there's a whole lot of luck just in getting the opportunities.
Image
User avatar
cvilleagle
Devlin Hall
 
Posts: 6639
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2009 4:14 pm
Karma: 1170

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Fri May 03, 2013 12:19 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
innocentbystander {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.

The reason it's discounted is because it's largely based upon guys getting on base ahead of said player and less of an actual indication of the players skill. You throw 2002 Manny in the Mariners lineup and he would struggle to put up 100 RBI. They're not pointless but there's better stuff out there that gives you an indication of a players ability outside of a number that needs a fair amount of context when comparing players.

Edit: I guess this goes to the luck component Civil noted above that I missed due to my poor reading abilities.
Last edited by flyingelvii on Fri May 03, 2013 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
flyingelvii
Higgins Hall
 
Posts: 5871
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:28 pm
Karma: -50

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:20 pm

cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
innocentbystander {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.


I wouldn't discount them entirely, either. But they're also far from an important statistic. For every RBI that's the result of timely or clutch hitting there's another that's in the middle of a blowout and irrelevant, and there's a whole lot of luck just in getting the opportunities.


The same can be said for any stat. The "Mike Stanley Memorial HR in a blowout" adds to slugging and the walk in the 8th inning of a 12-4 game adds to OBP, each increasing OPS.

Over the course of 162 games, the best hitters are usually the ones driving in 100+ runs. They also happen to be on the best teams in most cases, so they have the most opportunities. But I think the 600-700 PAs account for most of the luck.
"We remind everyone that Boston College fired a perfectly good coach because he went on a job interview, and deserves all of this." Spencer Hall
User avatar
twballgame9
BC Guy
 
Posts: 34331
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:49 am
Karma: 2491

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:24 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
innocentbystander {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.

The reason it's discounted is because it's largely based upon guys getting on base ahead of said player and less of an actual indication of the players skill. You throw 2002 Manny in the Mariners lineup and he would struggle to put up 100 RBI. They're not pointless but there's better stuff out there that gives you an indication of a players ability outside of a number that needs a fair amount of context when comparing players.

Edit: I guess this goes to the luck component Civil noted above that I missed due to my poor reading abilities.


I concede your point is true. I do not agree with "luck" on a more narrow basis over a 700 PA season. Like "Ramirez had more RBI this season because he had more luck" versus your proposal that you put him in a Mariners' lineup. The latter I agree with, the former not so much.
"We remind everyone that Boston College fired a perfectly good coach because he went on a job interview, and deserves all of this." Spencer Hall
User avatar
twballgame9
BC Guy
 
Posts: 34331
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:49 am
Karma: 2491

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Fri May 03, 2013 12:25 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
innocentbystander {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.


I wouldn't discount them entirely, either. But they're also far from an important statistic. For every RBI that's the result of timely or clutch hitting there's another that's in the middle of a blowout and irrelevant, and there's a whole lot of luck just in getting the opportunities.


The same can be said for any stat. The "Mike Stanley Memorial HR in a blowout" adds to slugging and the walk in the 8th inning of a 12-4 game adds to OBP, each increasing OPS.

Over the course of 162 games, the best hitters are usually the ones driving in 100+ runs. They also happen to be on the best teams in most cases, so they have the most opportunities. But I think the 600-700 PAs account for most of the luck.

They also now readily publish how players perform in these situations so you can help break out these different scenarios to see how they perform.

For the record, I never bought the argument that players aren't affected by the situation. They're affected less and less as they get to the majors but you can't tell me that 400 or so players go against thousand of years of human nature.
flyingelvii
Higgins Hall
 
Posts: 5871
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:28 pm
Karma: -50

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby cvilleagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:25 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
innocentbystander {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.


I wouldn't discount them entirely, either. But they're also far from an important statistic. For every RBI that's the result of timely or clutch hitting there's another that's in the middle of a blowout and irrelevant, and there's a whole lot of luck just in getting the opportunities.


The same can be said for any stat. The "Mike Stanley Memorial HR in a blowout" adds to slugging and the walk in the 8th inning of a 12-4 game adds to OBP, each increasing OPS.

Over the course of 162 games, the best hitters are usually the ones driving in 100+ runs. They also happen to be on the best teams in most cases, so they have the most opportunities. But I think the 600-700 PAs account for most of the luck.

Yeah I don't really disagree with any of that, except that some of the "luck" is in being on a good team that gets on base. Number of plate appearances really doesn't make up for that. All that being said, it's still a terrible stat for comparing hitters.

EDIT: I see that we pretty much agree.
Image
User avatar
cvilleagle
Devlin Hall
 
Posts: 6639
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2009 4:14 pm
Karma: 1170

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:27 pm

Fair enough, I think we are all in agreement.
"We remind everyone that Boston College fired a perfectly good coach because he went on a job interview, and deserves all of this." Spencer Hall
User avatar
twballgame9
BC Guy
 
Posts: 34331
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:49 am
Karma: 2491

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Fri May 03, 2013 12:28 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
cvilleagle {l Wrote}:
innocentbystander {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Then why don't "runs" count?


they DO count. they are counting in your RBIs. those runs are YOUR runs. you batted (or Sac-flyed, or maybe only "walked") them in.

IMHO, RBIs are the MOST important statistic there is to measure a hitter's value to a baseball team

OBP is your direct measurement to get on base to BE batted in by someone else

Total Pitches Faced is your direct measurement of dismantling/disrupting the most important player on the field. If great pitching wins, get the other team's great pitchers OUT of the game, and get them out early. If you strike out on 14 pitches, all is not necessarily lost

JMO

There's no space.

RBI's are an utterly retarded way to compare hitters.


I actually think that the sabremetricians' discounting of RBI entirely because "there is no such thing as timely or clutch hitting" to be one of the most retarded things in the history of sports. That said, RBI are given too much weight overall, and certainly here by nospace.

The reason it's discounted is because it's largely based upon guys getting on base ahead of said player and less of an actual indication of the players skill. You throw 2002 Manny in the Mariners lineup and he would struggle to put up 100 RBI. They're not pointless but there's better stuff out there that gives you an indication of a players ability outside of a number that needs a fair amount of context when comparing players.

Edit: I guess this goes to the luck component Civil noted above that I missed due to my poor reading abilities.


I concede your point is true. I do not agree with "luck" on a more narrow basis over a 700 PA season. Like "Ramirez had more RBI this season because he had more luck" versus your proposal that you put him in a Mariners' lineup. The latter I agree with, the former not so much.

Yeah I'm usually at a battle with the concept of "luck", specifically as it relates to BABIP. It's basically a quick and dirty way to explain away any anomalies in a player's performance since most people can't watch every at bat of every team. I do like using this for fantasy purposes though.
flyingelvii
Higgins Hall
 
Posts: 5871
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:28 pm
Karma: -50

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:29 pm

Back to the original point of this thread, what do we think are the chances that Cabrera repeats?
"We remind everyone that Boston College fired a perfectly good coach because he went on a job interview, and deserves all of this." Spencer Hall
User avatar
twballgame9
BC Guy
 
Posts: 34331
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:49 am
Karma: 2491

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby claver2010 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:34 pm

looks like nospace got you guys again



*i assume it's because tedwardo is :bored
Bush, George H W
Cosby, Bill
Disick, Scott
Flair, Ric
Griffin, Kathy
Khamenei, Ali
McCain, John
Pele
Soros, George
User avatar
claver2010
BC Guy
 
Posts: 20288
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 5:55 pm
Karma: 3380

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Fri May 03, 2013 12:35 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Back to the original point of this thread, what do we think are the chances that Cabrera repeats?

Traditional Triple Crown or the Nospace Crown?
flyingelvii
Higgins Hall
 
Posts: 5871
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:28 pm
Karma: -50

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby twballgame9 on Fri May 03, 2013 12:38 pm

claver2010 {l Wrote}:looks like nospace got you guys again



*i assume it's because tedwardo is :bored


Actually I believe I have successfully hijacked TRE's thread. Because I was bored.
"We remind everyone that Boston College fired a perfectly good coach because he went on a job interview, and deserves all of this." Spencer Hall
User avatar
twballgame9
BC Guy
 
Posts: 34331
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:49 am
Karma: 2491

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby cvilleagle on Fri May 03, 2013 12:49 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
claver2010 {l Wrote}:looks like nospace got you guys again



*i assume it's because tedwardo is :bored


Actually I believe I have successfully hijacked TRE's thread. Because I was bored.

What do you mean, "hijacked?" He posted about the triple crown on a baseball board - this is clearly what he was asking for.

Also, pick Orb. I have a feeling about that horse.
Last edited by cvilleagle on Tue May 07, 2013 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Image
User avatar
cvilleagle
Devlin Hall
 
Posts: 6639
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2009 4:14 pm
Karma: 1170

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 1:31 pm

no one hijacked anything here. it is good discussion

i am "re-evaluating" my outlook on RBIs.

i still love OBP and Total Pitches faced though
Feminism: Eve eats ALL the apples, gives God the middle finder when He confronts her, and has the serpent serve Adam with an injunction ordering him to stay away from her AND to provide her food and shelter because he dragged her out of the Garden.
User avatar
innocentbystander
BC Guy
 
Posts: 21747
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:40 pm
Location: Pac-12 Hell
Karma: -3630

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby innocentbystander on Fri May 03, 2013 3:01 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:Back to the original point of this thread, what do we think are the chances that Cabrera repeats?


if there will BE a (traditional) Triple Crown winner, Cabrera is likely to repeat. (only took 45 years to get one)
Feminism: Eve eats ALL the apples, gives God the middle finder when He confronts her, and has the serpent serve Adam with an injunction ordering him to stay away from her AND to provide her food and shelter because he dragged her out of the Garden.
User avatar
innocentbystander
BC Guy
 
Posts: 21747
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 9:40 pm
Location: Pac-12 Hell
Karma: -3630

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby angrychicken on Sun May 05, 2013 9:46 pm

innocentbystander {l Wrote}:no one hijacked anything here. it is good discussion

i am "re-evaluating" my outlook on RBIs.

i still love OBP and Total Pitches faced though

Yup. You missed it.
User avatar
angrychicken
Gasson Hall
 
Posts: 17506
Joined: Tue Sep 01, 2009 6:39 pm
Karma: 15833

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Mon May 06, 2013 8:49 am

I was going to post my picks right after the post position draw last Wednesday, but that was the same time the weathermen started forecasting heavy rain, so I waited.

When NBC Sport Network went live at 1:00, I saw how bad the rain was and flushed my picks.

Track conditions and surfaces count for a lot, and three year-olds are too lightly raced to give a decent sample size for wet conditions.

Had I posted, I would have told you to bet the horses that were being underplayed against the morning line. That would have included Orb, but it also would have included 8 other horses that failed to hit the board, so it was still a losing proposition.

Prior to the weather reports, my picks were Orb, Goldencents, Overanalyze, and Will Take Charge, so I do think Orb is the real deal. He will probably go off at even money at Preakness, and rightfully so. I don't think any of the other Derby horses can beat him, especially on short rest. One thing to keep an eye on is if Bob Baffert decides to enter Governor Charlie. GC is fast enough and fresh enough to give Orb a run, especially at 9.5 furlongs.
hello
User avatar
DavidGordonsFoot
Gasson Hall
 
Posts: 15042
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 11:56 pm
Location: Not tobaccoroad
Karma: 2942

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Mon May 06, 2013 9:14 am

PS - I also would have told you to stay the fuck away from Revolutionary. I'll say what the media won't say - Calvin Borel is not the same jockey he was 3 years ago. He is probably dealing with some issues in his personal life. He was arrested for DWI in 2011 and went to rehab. Then he was suspended for fighting a fellow jockey in 2012. Since the DWI, he is winning fewer than 10% of his graded stakes starts. His apologists often point to his record at Churchill, but even that has declined, and he is off to an 0-fer-9 start this meet after Saturday.
hello
User avatar
DavidGordonsFoot
Gasson Hall
 
Posts: 15042
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 11:56 pm
Location: Not tobaccoroad
Karma: 2942

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby flyingelvii on Mon May 06, 2013 11:37 am

Is there video of this fight? Because that sounds like an entertaining and fascinating watch.
flyingelvii
Higgins Hall
 
Posts: 5871
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:28 pm
Karma: -50

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Mon May 06, 2013 11:44 am

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Is there video of this fight? Because that sounds like an entertaining and fascinating watch.


There is, but you will probably be disappointed. Google "Borel Castellano fight."
hello
User avatar
DavidGordonsFoot
Gasson Hall
 
Posts: 15042
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 11:56 pm
Location: Not tobaccoroad
Karma: 2942

Re: triple crown handicapping

Postby hansen on Wed May 08, 2013 11:10 pm

Orb is a dumb name for a horse.
HANSENPOST :shrug

Image
User avatar
hansen
Gasson Hall
 
Posts: 19041
Joined: Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:07 pm
Location: Your Mom’s House
Karma: -2236

Next

Return to Shea Field

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Untitled document