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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:55 pm

claver2010 {l Wrote}:Ellsbury: 158 G, 732 PA
Trout: 138 G, 635 PA

So you can add more than 15% to all of Trout's "counting" stats to compare


First, that 15% doesn't change the cumulative stats that much, its 4.5 more HR and 12.5 more RBI, and closes the gap in TB, so they become more equal in those categories, not less. It increases the spread in R by 20, SB by 7, but it doesn't bring him anywhere close in 2B. With respect to average and OPS, it means nothing. So even adding the 15% they look frightfully similar, other than Trout's big lead in R and SB, Ellsbury's big lead in 2B and the fact that Trout would have struck out 60 more times than Ellsbury.

Second, it is naive to project season averages over games 138 through 158 of the MLB grind. Perhaps Trout keeps it up in his first full season of playing that many games, perhaps not. But he shouldn't get credit for it in comparing seasons.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:56 pm

You posted while I was writing mine.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby bignick33 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:57 pm

claver2010 {l Wrote}:So you can add more than 15% to all of Trout's "counting" stats to compare


Out of curiosity, would you do the same extrapolation for someone who had a strong first half, but suffered an injury around the all-star break? Someone who went 4 for 4 in the first game then blew out a knee?

As for what I think, Trout's season this year was superior to Ellsbury's last year, but not "much superior." And, I think Teddy's analogy of Ellsbury : Verlander = Trout : Cabrara has some merit.

Regardless, I think you're missing the point of the analogy by turning it into a direct comparison of Ellsbury's and Trout's respective seasons. I think the comparison was contextual.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:00 pm

Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby pick6pedro on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:00 pm

bignick33 {l Wrote}:Regardless, I think you're missing the point of the analogy by turning it into a direct comparison of Ellsbury's and Trout's respective seasons. I think the comparison was contextual.


this.

And this is an Orioles thread fer crissakes!
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby bignick33 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:01 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.


The SB % was a big part of what made the difference for me. Ells was 39 of 54, which isn't particularly good.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby bignick33 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:01 pm

pick6pedro {l Wrote}:
bignick33 {l Wrote}:Regardless, I think you're missing the point of the analogy by turning it into a direct comparison of Ellsbury's and Trout's respective seasons. I think the comparison was contextual.


this.


Thanks.

pick6pedro {l Wrote}:And this is an Orioles thread fer crissakes!


Fuck off.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby DavidGordonsFoot on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:02 pm

pick6pedro {l Wrote}:
bignick33 {l Wrote}:Regardless, I think you're missing the point of the analogy by turning it into a direct comparison of Ellsbury's and Trout's respective seasons. I think the comparison was contextual.


this.

And this is an Orioles thread fer crissakes!


Yeah, but it's the only active team thread with any relevance beyond today.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby pick6pedro on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:04 pm

DavidGordonsFoot {l Wrote}:
pick6pedro {l Wrote}:
bignick33 {l Wrote}:Regardless, I think you're missing the point of the analogy by turning it into a direct comparison of Ellsbury's and Trout's respective seasons. I think the comparison was contextual.


this.

And this is an Orioles thread fer crissakes!


Yeah, but it's the only active team thread with any relevance beyond today.


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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby claver2010 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:06 pm

bignick33 {l Wrote}:
claver2010 {l Wrote}:So you can add more than 15% to all of Trout's "counting" stats to compare


Out of curiosity, would you do the same extrapolation for someone who had a strong first half, but suffered an injury around the all-star break? Someone who went 4 for 4 in the first game then blew out a knee?

As for what I think, Trout's season this year was superior to Ellsbury's last year, but not "much superior." And, I think Teddy's analogy of Ellsbury : Verlander = Trout : Cabrara has some merit.

Regardless, I think you're missing the point of the analogy by turning it into a direct comparison of Ellsbury's and Trout's respective seasons. I think the comparison was contextual.


Of course not. He has played 158 games in total this year. Of course the exchange rate of minors games to pro games isn't 1 for 1, but when the tested sample is games 21-158 I don't think it's crazy to extrapolate the last 15%.

I altered to say it was superior but not far.

I couldn't tell in TW's original post as to whether it was apples for apples or purely contextual or a mix.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:11 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.


No one's ever suggested that Trout wasn't the better player, for just these reasons. That said, in comparing the things that you generally look at for awards, the only significant differences are Trout's R SB's, Ellsbury's 2B, and Ellsbury's significant advantage in putting the ball in play, which matters for him as a lead off hitter.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:14 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.


No one's ever suggested that Trout wasn't the better player, for just these reasons. That said, in comparing the things that you generally look at for awards, the only significant differences are Trout's R SB's, Ellsbury's 2B, and Ellsbury's significant advantage in putting the ball in play, which matters for him as a lead off hitter.

Why doesn't defense count?

Edit: And why is batted ball more important than actually getting on-base, especially for an elite baserunner?
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:19 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.


No one's ever suggested that Trout wasn't the better player, for just these reasons. That said, in comparing the things that you generally look at for awards, the only significant differences are Trout's R SB's, Ellsbury's 2B, and Ellsbury's significant advantage in putting the ball in play, which matters for him as a lead off hitter.

Why doesn't defense count?


It just doesn't. Or if it does, it is such an insignificant part of the determination. Not saying that is a good thing, it just is the way the voters view it.

I'd suggest of all the recent MVP winners, only Pudge Rodriguez and Barry Larkin really got any points for his defense. Maybe Ichiro and Rollins. There was a stretch in the early 90s when the Al MVPs were Frank Thomas twice, Mo Vaughn and Juan Gonzalez. Ryan Braun? Howard? Pujols and Bonds?

EDIT: on further review, forgot Larkin
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby claver2010 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:20 pm

DavidGordonsFoot {l Wrote}:When you talk about new school vs old school, are you talking about the debate if you have to award to a guy who's team made the playoffs or the significance of the Triple Crown statistics?

I don't believe in an unwritten rule that you have to vote for someone whose team made the playoffs.

I don't think BA and RBI are among the most useful stats in assessing a player's value.

That said, Cabrera would get my vote. I respect the history of the Triple Crown, and Cabrera leads the league in OPS, too. It's a shame Trout wasn't playing (through no fault of his own) for most of April. That makes the comparison tougher.


Sorry this got lost.

New school versus old school regarding:
1) team making the playoffs versus not
2) rookie vs. vet
3) triple crown vs triple slash/WAR
4) offense vs offense/D/baserunning
etc
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:21 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.


No one's ever suggested that Trout wasn't the better player, for just these reasons. That said, in comparing the things that you generally look at for awards, the only significant differences are Trout's R SB's, Ellsbury's 2B, and Ellsbury's significant advantage in putting the ball in play, which matters for him as a lead off hitter.

Why doesn't defense count?


It just doesn't. Or if it does, it is such an insignificant part of the determination. Not saying that is a good thing, it just is the way the voters view it.

I'd suggest of all the recent MVP winners, only Pudge Rodriguez and Barry Larkin really got any points for his defense. Maybe Ichiro and Rollins. There was a stretch in the early 90s when the Al MVPs were Frank Thomas twice, Mo Vaughn and Juan Gonzalez. Ryan Braun? Howard? Pujols and Bonds?

EDIT: on further review, forgot Larkin

I thought we were comparing Ellsbury and Trout. Now I'm just confused.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:23 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.


No one's ever suggested that Trout wasn't the better player, for just these reasons. That said, in comparing the things that you generally look at for awards, the only significant differences are Trout's R SB's, Ellsbury's 2B, and Ellsbury's significant advantage in putting the ball in play, which matters for him as a lead off hitter.

Why doesn't defense count?

Edit: And why is batted ball more important than actually getting on-base, especially for an elite baserunner?


Your question is going to lead to a dispute about sabremetrics. Not interested. My only point is that Trout leaves the plate without potentially helping his team 60 more times than Ellsbury. I know people think strikeouts are irrelevant, and they are just another out, but Ellsbury is also only the second leadoff hitter in history with 100 RBI and there is a reason for that. And it is not just the strength of the bottom of the order, which included Jarrod Saltalamachia.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:25 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.


No one's ever suggested that Trout wasn't the better player, for just these reasons. That said, in comparing the things that you generally look at for awards, the only significant differences are Trout's R SB's, Ellsbury's 2B, and Ellsbury's significant advantage in putting the ball in play, which matters for him as a lead off hitter.

Why doesn't defense count?


It just doesn't. Or if it does, it is such an insignificant part of the determination. Not saying that is a good thing, it just is the way the voters view it.

I'd suggest of all the recent MVP winners, only Pudge Rodriguez and Barry Larkin really got any points for his defense. Maybe Ichiro and Rollins. There was a stretch in the early 90s when the Al MVPs were Frank Thomas twice, Mo Vaughn and Juan Gonzalez. Ryan Braun? Howard? Pujols and Bonds?

EDIT: on further review, forgot Larkin

I thought we were comparing Ellsbury and Trout. Now I'm just confused.


We were comparing Trout and Ellsbury as MVP candidates for their respective seasons, not as players. The post simply states that defense is historically irrelevant for that consideration. Trout's probably taller, too, but that probably wasn't considered by the voters.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:30 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.


No one's ever suggested that Trout wasn't the better player, for just these reasons. That said, in comparing the things that you generally look at for awards, the only significant differences are Trout's R SB's, Ellsbury's 2B, and Ellsbury's significant advantage in putting the ball in play, which matters for him as a lead off hitter.

Why doesn't defense count?

Edit: And why is batted ball more important than actually getting on-base, especially for an elite baserunner?


Your question is going to lead to a dispute about sabremetrics. Not interested. My only point is that Trout leaves the plate without potentially helping his team 60 more times than Ellsbury. I know people think strikeouts are irrelevant, and they are just another out, but Ellsbury is also only the second leadoff hitter in history with 100 RBI and there is a reason for that. And it is not just the strength of the bottom of the order, which included Jarrod Saltalamachia.

No it isn't. Yeah and Trout has 87 despite missing 15% of the season. Both are pretty damn impressive. The point of mine was to say that the doubles don't matter as much for Trout to hit 2Bs because he is a better base runner and can take more bases than Ellsbury can.

You are also are giving far too much negative weight to strikeouts versus traditional outs considering Trout is roughly on the same pace as Ellsbury despite having 60 more K's.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:33 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Trout's also a better baserunner and defender than Ellsbury, at least from what I've read and he doesn't appear to have a noodle arm. Trout's also 49/53 in SBs. Which is just absurd.


No one's ever suggested that Trout wasn't the better player, for just these reasons. That said, in comparing the things that you generally look at for awards, the only significant differences are Trout's R SB's, Ellsbury's 2B, and Ellsbury's significant advantage in putting the ball in play, which matters for him as a lead off hitter.

Why doesn't defense count?

Edit: And why is batted ball more important than actually getting on-base, especially for an elite baserunner?


Your question is going to lead to a dispute about sabremetrics. Not interested. My only point is that Trout leaves the plate without potentially helping his team 60 more times than Ellsbury. I know people think strikeouts are irrelevant, and they are just another out, but Ellsbury is also only the second leadoff hitter in history with 100 RBI and there is a reason for that. And it is not just the strength of the bottom of the order, which included Jarrod Saltalamachia.

No it isn't. Yeah and Trout has 87 despite missing 15% of the season. Both are pretty damn impressive. The point of mine was to say that it doesn't matter as much for Trout to hit 2Bs because he is a better base runner and can take more bases than Ellsbury can.

You are also are giving far too much negative weight to strikeouts versus traditional outs considering Trout is roughly on the same pace as Ellsbury despite having 60 more K's.


We already did the math on the 15% - it's marginal, even if you assume he keeps his pace in games 138-158. Let me help you, Trout's a better player, Ellsbury had a very similar season last year in the categories voters focus on. Each may take a back seat in the voting to a player that did something incredible in helping his team actually make the playoffs. That is all I got.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby bignick33 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:39 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}: That is all I got.


You honestly expect us to believe that you couldn't keep debating this if you really wanted to?
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:43 pm

bignick33 {l Wrote}:
twballgame9 {l Wrote}: That is all I got.


You honestly expect us to believe that you couldn't keep debating this if you really wanted to?


No, I certainly could. I'm just not that interested in the finer points of the importance of 20 more SBs versus 60 more strikeouts and mapping out how those 20 SBs make 20 singles doubles, so the doubles don't matter. It seems fair at this point to just say their seasons are eerily similar and that Trout is a younger and better player.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:06 pm

Outs made was the point I was eventually getting to, actually. But I let it go.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby pick6pedro on Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:19 pm

It's still nuts that in the AL seeds 1, 2, 4 and 5 are not determined. And it's even more nuts that there could easily be a team playing in 3 different locations for games Wed, Thurs and Fri.

If the O's win in Tampa and Yanks lose, they play a one game division tiebreaker Thursday in Baltimore. The loser then plays Friday in a WC game against the loser of the A's-Rangers afternoon game. If it's the O's, they would have to go to either Oakland or Texas. If they win that game, then they go back to Baltimore for a home game against the winner of Oakland-Texas' game.

Of course the Yanks are going to score 75 bajillion runs on Dice-K tonight, so this scenario will not play out.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:35 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:Outs made was the point I was eventually getting to, actually. But I let it go.


And "outs made is not one of the main criteria considered by this guy Image when he votes" was the point I actually got to 8 posts ago, but I let it go.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:22 pm

No but the BBWA has undergone a decent transformation that have led to more new thinkers on there like Keith Law and some of the guys at BP and other similar sites which have generally led to better results in the Cy Young voting and better voting in the MVP race, though still not up to the level of Cy Young. Gold Gloves are still complete clownshoes.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:26 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:No but the BBWA has undergone a decent transformation that have led to more new thinkers on there like Keith Law and some of the guys at BP and other similar sites which have generally led to better results in the Cy Young voting and better voting in the MVP race, though still not up to the level of Cy Young. Gold Gloves are still complete clownshoes.


It's going to be hard for those guys not to vote for Cabrera. It's going to be hard for any school, old or new, not to vote for Cabrera I think is the point. I agree with your premise though.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby cvilleagle on Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:33 pm

twballgame9 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:No but the BBWA has undergone a decent transformation that have led to more new thinkers on there like Keith Law and some of the guys at BP and other similar sites which have generally led to better results in the Cy Young voting and better voting in the MVP race, though still not up to the level of Cy Young. Gold Gloves are still complete clownshoes.


It's going to be hard for those guys not to vote for Cabrera. It's going to be hard for any school, old or new, not to vote for Cabrera I think is the point. I agree with your premise though.

Yeah, if he pulls off the triple crown, I can't imagine it even being close.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby claver2010 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:38 pm

flyingelvii {l Wrote}:No but the BBWA has undergone a decent transformation that have led to more new thinkers on there like Keith Law and some of the guys at BP and other similar sites which have generally led to better results in the Cy Young voting and better voting in the MVP race, though still not up to the level of Cy Young. Gold Gloves are still complete clownshoes.


I do like Keith Law's sarcastic writing, he had a good article on why it should be Trout a week ago.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby twballgame9 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:41 pm

claver2010 {l Wrote}:
flyingelvii {l Wrote}:No but the BBWA has undergone a decent transformation that have led to more new thinkers on there like Keith Law and some of the guys at BP and other similar sites which have generally led to better results in the Cy Young voting and better voting in the MVP race, though still not up to the level of Cy Young. Gold Gloves are still complete clownshoes.


I do like Keith Law's sarcastic writing, he had a good article on why it should be Trout a week ago.


I thought that article was retarded. It sounded like a guy covering his eyes and accusing everyone else of being blind.
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Re: Orioles Weirdos

Postby flyingelvii on Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:41 pm

Let me guess, the premise begins with WAR or fWAR or something like that and then says something about how Trout is a good baserunner and a plus plus defender to Cabrera's minus minus defender and makes fun of the people that explicitly try to define "Value". I agree with a lot of what he says, specifically the baserunning and defender parts, but these articles are more or less fill in the box templates every year, as it was with Verlander vs. Bautista vs. Ellsbury last year.
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