Kentucky Derby 2012

[bignick33]

Obviously, EO's (10-1) Hansen is sentimental favorite. However, my gut says undefeated (6-1) Gemologist is the smart pick.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

[DavidGordonsFoot]

I will give my picks after I read the form. I watched most of the graded stakes this year and have my favorites, but I need to see how they've been working. Most of these horses will be coming off layoffs of 30+ days, they may not be in the same condition they were in March.

[pick6pedro]

Hansen needs more dreadlocks and less goldilocks in order to earn my trust come Saturday...

[twballgame9]

I'm going with Union Rags and Daddy Long Legs as my long shot.

[cvilleagle]

Hansen needs more dreadlocks and less goldilocks in order to earn my trust come Saturday...

Yeah, he just looks unathletic.

[bignick33]

I'm going with Union Rags and Daddy Long Legs as my long shot.

There's lots of chatter about that horse...would be a great story. I'll definitely be placing a win and a show bet on him.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

Serious storms blew through Louisville last night. The main track is sloppy as of 7:30 EST. Forecast calls for clouds and scattered t-storms, 50% chance of rain. The track may not get a chance to dry out before Derby. I'm going to wait as long as possible before putting my bets in. Thank goodness for TVG.

[basselope]

Serious storms blew through Louisville last night. The main track is sloppy as of 7:30 EST. Forecast calls for clouds and scattered t-storms, 50% chance of rain. The track may not get a chance to dry out before Derby. I'm going to wait as long as possible before putting my bets in. Thank goodness for TVG.

So was Hansen a mudder in Track?

[bignick33]

Serious storms blew through Louisville last night. The main track is sloppy as of 7:30 EST. Forecast calls for clouds and scattered t-storms, 50% chance of rain. The track may not get a chance to dry out before Derby. I'm going to wait as long as possible before putting my bets in. Thank goodness for TVG.

So was Hansen a mudder in Track?

His mother was a mudder.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

My picks:

W - Daddy Nose Best
P - Gemologist
S - Hansen

[DavidGordonsFoot]

That pace was ridiculous. The first 3/4 mile was the fastest in Derby history, faster than Secretariat when he set the Derby record. There's nothing to take away from this race other than confirmation that Bodemeister is legit. If he didn't have to expend so much energy setting that pace to outrun the bumper cars game in the first furlong, he easily wins this thing. IWNH, but I wish they would limit the Derby field to 14.

It's early, but I like the field at Preakness. Gutierrez maneuvered I'll Have Another masterfully and was in position with something left in the tank at the end. But despite the early fractions, IHA finished with an unimpressive time on a day the track was running fast.

[claver2010]

DGF are we going to get your Preakness pick before tomorrow?

[claver2010]

BTW DGF, this is how I picture you hightailing it down there this afternoon

[DavidGordonsFoot]

BTW DGF, this is how I picture you hightailing it down there this afternoon

That is out-fucking-standing. I had an outburst like that at my friend's 30th birthday party in 2008. The whole party was rooting for Big Brown except me, and I ended up winning $700. I "rode the pony" Shea Field style around the living room and called everyone in my phone to brag.

Sorry, no picks yet. My step-son had prom last night, so we were busy with that. I felt like a huge hypocrite standing with my wife telling him not to go to the post-prom party in the woods. Being a grown up sucks.

I'll post my picks later. Maybe they will be better than my Derby picks, but I doubt it. I rarely do well in the Triple Crown races.

[claver2010]

Jersey sports fan on youtube is absolutely hilarious

[DavidGordonsFoot]

Preakness is usually chalk.

Bodemeister
I'll Have Another
Went the Day Well

I'm alive in the DD thanks to Hudson Steele in the Dixie. I only bet it half-way, though.

I bet some show tickets with Teeth of the Dog and Zetterhorn. If any longshots hit the board, I think those will be them. I also boxed an exacta with IHA and Cozzetti after my 7-year old told me those were her two favorites.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

My DD returned 25% but my show bets put me back at even.

It was a good race. Count me among those now impressed with IHA.

Historically, it's been a massive opportunity to win big money at BIG SANDY (TM angryty) when the Trip Crown is on the line. I'll be betting against IHA, but I like him better than Big Brown.

[bignick33]

Foot, are you driving down to the Stakes?

[DavidGordonsFoot]

Foot, are you driving down to the Stakes?

No.

Despite my love for the sport and growing up a few short miles away, Belmont Park is not equipped to handle the six-figure crowds they get every time the Triple Crown is up for grabs. The "backyard" hardly compensates for the fact that, unlike Derby and Preakness, they do not open the infield to spectators. It is crowded and seats anywhere are hard to come by, even on the ground. I last attended in 2009, when only 50,000 turned out, and most of the concessions stands still ran out of food, beer, and soda before the main event. The beer issue is especially problematic because Stakes Day is the only day of the Spring meet that Belmont won't let you BYOB. They also could not keep up with cleaning the bathrooms and restocking toilet paper and paper towels.

It does not help that, although I would love to see IHA win the crown, I do not think it will have the impact many of the "experts" are saying it would. In fact, I think it may be the opposite. In order to have any lasting impact, the horse needs to keep running if it wins Saturday. Not just the rest of the year, but into 2013. Run Dubai, run Royal Ascot, run the Arc, run the Breeder's Cup again. The game doesn't just need a superstar, it needs a superstar with a lasting presence. Affirmed raced as a four-year old and repeated as Horse of the Year. Seattle Slew also ran at 4. OK, Secretariat didn't, and that's what the talking heads will point at. But what is the point if IHA is off to the breeding shed Sunday morning, never to be seen again? I am growing more fearful of this scenario.

[claver2010]

First of all, I met secretariat ok?

Second, from everything I hear it'll be beyond a zoo (a lot of idiots are thinking oh I'll just go and it'll be a fun time)

[DavidGordonsFoot]

First of all, I met secretariat ok?

Second, from everything I hear it'll be beyond a zoo (a lot of idiots are thinking oh I'll just go and it'll be a fun time)

Weather has been nasty the past two attempts and they still got six figures. Forecast for Saturday is mostly sunny, low 80s, 50% humidity. It will be a zoo.

One saving grace is that the 7:15 start for Mets/Yanks means people will have to choose which one to go to instead of hightailing it to Belmont after the ballgame.

If anyone here is going and wants my advice on getting the best seats if you don't have reserved seating tickets... Friday evening, drive into Floral Park and park as close as you can to the track on a one of the side streets west of Plainfield Ave. Sleep in your car. At some point during the night, the police will close Plainfield Ave. and a bunch of the other roads around Belmont Park to traffic. Wake up and walk to the Plainfield Ave. entrance. Try to get there by 8:00 (they open at 8:30). Because all the streets are closed, the only people using that gate will be people who live close enough to walk there, and there won't be many of them at that hour. Those folks usually have house parties in the morning and arrive much later.

[pick6pedro]

IHA out due to injury.

[bignick33]

WHOA. IHA has been scratched.

In the last few minutes, I was browsing grandstand tickets. For as much as I appreciate Foot's advice, I figured shelling out $100-$150 beats sleeping in a car. Now, that won't be necessary.

[bignick33]

By the way, IHA's trainer is filthy. The more I think if it, the more skeptical I am of this explanation. If tswollen left front tendon" were a stock, I'd short-sell the shit out of it.

[pick6pedro]

Suck my timestamp, fruit beer.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

I had my day planned around this race, and I'm obviously disappointed.

It wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility that there is more this story beyond what O'Neill is saying. If you want to go down this road, I think the most likely explanation is that the new security measures at the barn prevented O'Neill from getting away with some pre-race shenanigans he traditionally practices.

I'll still have my picks later.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

My pick is Paynter.

My long shot is Five Sixteen.

I'm alive in the Pick 3. If Paynter or Five Sixteen win, I collect.

[pick6pedro]

My pick is Paynter.

My long shot is Five Sixteen.

I'm alive in the Pick 3. If Paynter or Five Sixteen win, I collect.

Ouch.

[DavidGordonsFoot]

My pick is Paynter.

My long shot is Five Sixteen.

I'm alive in the Pick 3. If Paynter or Five Sixteen win, I collect.

Ouch.

Yeah. I spent about a minute knelt on my TV room floor in stunned silence. I loved Paynter's position in the turn and didn't think UR would have enough track to get around him. Then Mike Smith did not drift back to the rail coming out of the turn. WTF. The rest is history.

FWIW, the Pick 3 did not end up paying much, something like $93. I was surprised considering a 6.5-1 shot won the Manhattan. I figured I was looking at a couple hundred had Paynter won. It probably would have broken $100, but not by much.

[pick6pedro]

My pick is Paynter.

My long shot is Five Sixteen.

I'm alive in the Pick 3. If Paynter or Five Sixteen win, I collect.

Ouch.

Yeah. I spent about a minute knelt on my TV room floor in stunned silence. I loved Paynter's position in the turn and didn't think UR would have enough track to get around him. Then Mike Smith did not drift back to the rail coming out of the turn. WTF. The rest is history.

FWIW, the Pick 3 did not end up paying much, something like $93. I was surprised considering a 6.5-1 shot won the Manhattan. I figured I was looking at a couple hundred had Paynter won. It probably would have broken $100, but not by much.

Hey that'd be better than nothing! I remember thinking "there's no way he won't pinch the rail and win it, there's no way..." only to watch him fly by Paynter.